Daily Evacuation Brief | April 18, 2022
Exclusive Content from our open source intel analysis, Whispers.
Whispers is an intelligence and analysis column focused on post-democratic Afghanistan
Three Obstacles to the Taliban's Long Term Governance
“The coup was necessary because of Guinea's deep despair amidst rampant poverty and corruption.”
– Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, President of Guinea 2008-10
There is often euphoria when a government changes hands. This seems to be true in cases of coup d’états, forcible takeovers, and in morally bankrupt abdications of support (e.g. the NATO-led Afghanistan withdrawal). The new stewards assume the reins of authority with grand proclamations and heady promises about health, wealth, unity, and a new moral heading for a nation. The populace, having little recourse, is often swept up in nationalistic fervor. Grievances against the old regime are remembered and, for a moment, there is hope that maybe the new boss will be better than the old one.
But what happens when the promises are broken and the euphoria subsides?
LAST 24 HOURS:
A roundup of former NDS officials in Jalalabad and Kabul took place, and several former officers are reportedly being held in the 4th Police District headquarters. In another roundup of former regime members, Hazrat Wali was arrested in Jalalabad and tortured. Immediately following his interrogation, Sergeant Major Abdul Jamil and Abdul Matin Qanet were taken into custody. They are being held in the 9th Police District headquarters (former NDS prison). Sources indicate they will be tortured, and former colleagues should take warning.
House to house searches have begun in Paktia. What the Taliban are looking for is currently unknown. At-risk Afghans should take care to hide documents and scour their electronic devices.
The UNHCR announced it is assigning a Special Rapporteur to investigate claims of human rights abuses in Afghanistan. Mr. Richard Bennett is expected to visit Afghanistan in May with a broad mandate to examine reported abuses across several sectors of society.
$32 million USD in economic aid arrived at the Central Bank.
The reported drone sightings that have confounded observers for the last couple of weeks may be Chinese drones, operated by the Chinese military. They are thought to have communications intercept equipment attached and appear to be loitering over specific locations.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
More violence is expected along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border with particular concern in the areas immediately adjacent to the Durand Line. Several reports have indicated the TTP has recruited many Afghan locals who are incensed over the recent air strikes. Two convoys of weapons and ammunition were reportedly dispatched south of Khost today and are intended to arm the volunteers the TTP has assembled. A total of 4 trucks (2 white, 1 red, 1 blue) departed at sunrise and were observed to be carrying mainly rifles and ammo. They were seen to be waved through a Taliban checkpoint without being searched.
The Ministry of the Interior has circulated orders to look for signs of celebration as the Christian holiday of Easter takes place. The orders state that the celebrations are not to be interrupted, but police and informants should notate the address and names of those who may be in attendance. At-risk Afghans are encouraged to maintain a low profile and avoid large gatherings.
Pakistan is expected to increase air patrols (both helicopter and fighter/bomber aircraft) for the next 8 days. Reportedly, they have received intelligence about an emerging threat.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 87.27 AFN (as of 18 APR 2022)
Afghanistan death toll in Pakistan strikes' rises to at least 47
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Security Forces to Get New Uniforms Next Month
By Farshad Daryush – TOLO News
The Ministry of Interior says it will distribute specific uniforms for security…
Authorities seize $600,000 from alleged smuggler in Torkham
By Ariana News
Torkham border commissioner Syed Ghaziullah Hashimi said the man had confessed to his crime and said that he wanted to…
Pakistan warns Afghanistan's Taliban not to shelter militants
By Deutsche Welle
Islamabad has issued a warning to Afghanistan's Taliban leadership, accusing it of giving shelter to…
Islamic Emirate Says Situation of Afghans in Iran has Improved
By Waheeda Hasan – TOLO News
The situation of Afghan refugees has become better since negotiations were conducted between the…
Former US ambassador to Afghanistan airs concern over rising humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan
The former US diplomat to Afghanistan, Ross Wilson, has expressed concerns about…
UK Defence Committee holds next session in Afghanistan inquiry
By Parliament – United Kingdom
The Defence Committee continues its inquiry into Afghanistan, with representatives from RUSI, IISS, the Sulha Alliance and the…
THE DAILY WTF
Takhar children’s interest in woody gun toys increases
By Yasin Joya – Pajhwok Afghan News
Civil society activists in northern Takhar province say children have started playing…