Security and Conflict
Badakhshan Protests – Protests in Badakhshan continued this week. A full timeline and analysis of the situation is provided in the spotlight analysis.
Nangarhar Protests – On Thursday, residents in Rodat district, Nangarhar protested against the Taliban, blocking the Jalalabad-Torkham highway over customs location disputes at Kabul Camp. Clashes ensued, resulting in one death and three injuries from Taliban gunfire.
Drone Strike – Unconfirmed reports have surfaced regarding a possible drone strike that allegedly occurred last Thursday in Barmal, Paktika, near the border with North Waziristan. These reports suggest that the attack was conducted by the Pakistani military and targeted two TTP camps, resulting in 9 deaths and 8 injuries. Following the reported attack, a planned visit by a high-ranking Pakistani military delegation to Kandahar, intended to meet with the Supreme Leader, was canceled. It is important to note that no photographs of the reported attack have been released, and no news or rumors about the strike emerged until several days afterward, which raises questions about the accuracy of these reports.
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
Arrests of Ismaili’s – In Badakhshan Province, Taliban forces arrested 15 Ismaili Shia individuals in Nasi district on charges of belonging to the "National Resistance Front," despite their civilian status as farmers and breeders. The arrests, led by Taliban district chief Jumah Khan, involved beatings and detentions from homes and workplaces on May 2. The detainees remain in custody, barred from family visits. Local tensions rise as sectarian harassment and military operations continue in the region.
ANSF Detentions and Killing – In northeastern Takhar province, Afghanistan, the Taliban detained two former ANDSF members, Mohammad Usman and Samiullah Sadat, last week. The reasons for their detention remain unclear amid ongoing concerns over targeted arrests and the safety of former government affiliates. In a separate incident a former ANSF soldier, Tukhtehmesh, was shot by Taliban soldiers in Maimana, Faryab on Tuesday.
Reports of Torture in Sar-e Pul – In Balkhab district, Sar-e Pol province, at least 14 residents were reportedly arrested and tortured by the Taliban, with their families denied visitation, according to Afghanistan International. The arrests followed local complaints about Taliban discrimination and support for anti-Taliban resistance, prompting a Taliban raid on three villages. Further complications arose as locals were coerced into paying money or surrendering non-existent weapons, amidst ongoing reports of severe human rights violations in the area.
Floggings – The Taliban's supreme court reported that in Badakhshan province, four people were publicly flogged for selling alcohol and pills; one also received a one-year prison sentence.
Freedom of the Press
Journalist Detained – On Monday, journalist Neda Mohammad Noori of Radio Television Afghanistan was detained unlawfully by Taliban intelligence in Parwan province. The Afghanistan Journalists Center demanded his immediate release, citing his apprehension was due to alleged collaborations with exiled Afghan media, deemed by local Taliban as anti-propaganda. Mr. Noori was released after 3 days.
Ghazni Journalist arrested – Ahmed Shah Elmiar, host of Rah Farda tv in Ghaznis was arrested a week ago. He was reportedly moved to Kabul several days later. The Taliban have not commented on the arrest.
Internal Politics
Head of Badri Unit Quits – On Saturday, Abdul Hamid Khorasani, a former commander in the Taliban's Badri unit, publicly resigned following Taliban attempts to disarm him. Khorasani publicly criticized the Pashtuns' derogatory view of his group as thieves and ruffians. In his statement to Amaj News, Khorasani expressed that there is no need to remain in a system that disrespects and dishonors him and his fellow fighters. He added that their patience has worn thin due to ignorance, prejudice, and continuous insults, declaring an end to their servitude. Additionally, some non-Pashtun Taliban released videos supporting Khorasani, highlighting ongoing discrimination within the Taliban and subtly acknowledging the existence of the Haqqani Network, which the Taliban officially denies.
Speech by Supreme Leader – The Supreme Leader of the Taliban addressed key issues at the Ibrahim An-Nakhai Madrassa in Kandahar City, advocating for religious scholars to engage in politics and safeguard society from vice. He emphasized the detrimental impact of smartphones, urging a ban for all, and appealed to Afghans to stay in the country, promising land allocations for returning refugees. His speech aimed to clarify the Taliban's intentions as benevolent, focusing on protecting the people's dignity and wealth.
Head of GDI Reportedly Fired – According to AGT, Mullah Abdullah Ghaznavi, former head of the Taliban's General Directorate of Intelligence, was dismissed due to his failure to secure organizational secrets and his mishandled confidential CIA meeting in Qatar, which leaked to the press. Allegations suggest that details from his meetings traced back to Warsaw. Lacking special influence or knowledge, Ghaznavi was appointed through familial connections. Despite his efforts and several foreign trips, leaks persisted, fueling discontent within some Taliban factions.
Kuchi/Hazara Conflicts – In the Hazara-dominated Behsud district of Maidan Wardak, Afghanistan, about 20 armed Kuchis, led by Janan of the Jankhil tribe, reportedly attacked Aghjam Payeen village, claiming ownership over the land. They besieged homes, destroyed crops with tractors, and imposed their watchmen to guard the disputed lands. Similar conflicts, largely over land rights and grazing areas are likely to emerge over the spring and summer as they did during the initial Taliban rule, where local disputes and forceful land seizures by Kuchis were common, supported by local influential figures and Taliban-appointed authorities.
International Developments
UN Visit to Kabul – A United Nations delegation is in Kabul to evaluate the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and identify the country's needs for the UN General Assembly. The delegation, led by Bachar Bong Abdullah, is assessing conditions across Afghan provinces. Amid their visit, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi stressed a preference against long-term external aid, while women's rights activists criticized the Taliban's narrative as misleading, arguing that genuine Afghan priorities must emerge from its citizens. Additionally, there are significant humanitarian and women's rights challenges, with millions facing food insecurity and severe restrictions on women's rights to education and work.
Regional Developments
Deportations – The Taliban's Ministry of Migrants reported that 1,759 Afghan migrants were returned to Afghanistan through the Islam Qala border in Herat from Iran, both voluntarily and forcibly, on April 22. Additionally, Pakistan expelled 349 Afghan migrants, including 65 families through the Torkham border. There are increasing concerns over the worsening conditions of these returnees, with international bodies warning of their dire situations.
Meeting with Iranian Officials – Officials from Iranian provinces bordering Afghanistan met in Mashhad to discuss strategic commerce and rail transit decisions. The meeting, led by Hassan Kazemi Qomi and excluding Taliban representatives, aimed to implement President Ebrahim Raisi's directives for easier trade. The Iran Railway Authority highlighted the need for proper permits to facilitate ongoing rail exchanges.
Miscellaneous
Flooding – Last week, heavy rains caused significant flooding in Baghlan province, particularly affecting Pul-e-Khumri city and the districts of Baghlan-e-Markazi, Nahrin, and Burka. Current reports indicate that more than 316 people have died, 1,630 have been injured, and over 2,600 homes have been destroyed. In the Aqtash district of Kunduz province, the flooding destroyed dozens of homes and devastated over a hundred acres of agricultural land. Additionally, several villages in the Kohistanat district of Sar-e-Pul have been flooded, resulting in substantial damage to homes, livestock, and agriculture. This week, further flooding has been reported in the provinces of Takhar, Badakhshan, Samangan, Faryab, Herat, Ghor, Badghis, and Kandahar. Organizations such as the World Food Program (WFP), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and the Taliban have all pledged aid to the affected areas. More rain is expected in Northern Afghanistan later this week.
Construction of Hospitals – Save the Children has begun constructing two health centers in Balkh province's Zare and Charbolak districts, funded by the German Foreign Ministry. These centers will serve around 246,000 people, including 95,000 children, providing crucial medical services. The strategic locations of these clinics will ensure accessibility for nearly 148,000 residents in need, supplementing essential health services in a region where 18 million rely on medical aid.
NEXT WEEK
Continued rainfall is predicted for the northern parts of the country, likely causing more flash floods and exacerbating the devastation. With hundreds of thousands already affected, the emergency situation will impact the activities of the Taliban and resistance forces as resources will be diverted to affected areas. Washed out roads in the northern areas will cause issues with delivery of aid to affected regions.
The unrest in Badakhshan will likely persist, while open protests are likely over, flare-ups are possible. The heavy presence of the Taliban in the affected areas will increase the likelihood of incidents that could be exploited by the armed anti-Taliban forces to further drive a wedge between the local population and the Taliban.
The implication of unrest in Badakhshan includes the Taliban government will plead for international support for alternative livelihoods to opium production, highlighting the need to help Afghan farmers. Compounded with the impact of devastating floods, the global engagement will increase with the Taliban at least to alleviate the impact of the natural disasters.
Deportations will continue from both Iran and Pakistan; this should be considered the status quo at this time and Afghans in these countries should exercise caution.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Fines for employing Undocumented Afghans Increased – Iran's General Directorate for Foreign Nationals' Employment has raised fines for employing undocumented foreign workers, especially Afghans, to about 1.2 million tomans per day. The fines will double for repeat offenses. This move aims to tackle the longstanding issue of unauthorized employment of Afghans in Iran's labor market.
PAKISTAN
Claims of Pakistani Teens supporting Afghan Taliban – Maulana Fazlur Rehman, leader of Pakistan's Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, controversially claimed that 30,000 Pakistani teens aided the Taliban against foreign forces in Afghanistan. His statement contradicts Pakistan's official position and questions the integrity of the Pakistani army. He highlighted a potential breach at the Afghan border, which was reportedly closed. This assertion is yet to be addressed by the Pakistani military or the Taliban.
Afghan Talibs killed in Waziristan – Mohammad Salim, known as Toor Gul, and Jawid, both from Maidan Wardak province, Afghanistan, were killed in a drone strike in Waziristan while fighting with the Pakistani Taliban.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Badakhshan: Not the Helmand of the North
Introduction to Badakhshan
Badakhshan, “a drug-intensified borderland,” is located in northeastern Afghanistan, bordering China and Pakistan to the east and southeast, and Tajikistan to the north. It is the only province simultaneously connected to both the northern and southern drug corridors from Afghanistan, through Tajikistan and Pakistan. With its mostly mountainous terrain, which is inaccessible for most of the year, it has limited arable land.
The population, exceeding one million, with 80% living below the poverty line, is dispersed across the province in valleys that form 22 districts and 1,200 villages. Most of the population is Tajik, with pockets of Uzbeks concentrated in Argo (Wahdat), Daraym, and areas surrounding Faizabad, along with other ethnicities such as Pashtuns, Gujars, Pamiris, Kirgiz, and others. The majority adhere to Hanafi Muslim jurisprudence, with a small minority of Ismaili Shia mostly concentrated in the northeastern districts of Ishkashim and Shighnan.
Badakhshan’s economy is primarily driven by mining, drugs, remittances, and limited farming. Despite a recent ban by the Taliban on poppy cultivation and drug production, and significant compliance by the population in areas like Helmand, poppy cultivation is reportedly on the rise in Badakhshan province. Due to its high-altitude terrain, it is also a favored area for harvesting precursors of methamphetamine. During the republic era, Badakhshan served as a major force generation area for the ANDSF. After the collapse of the republic, the majority of the former ANDSF members are either in exile, displaced, unemployed, or being persecuted by the Taliban.
Recent Unrests
The protests in Badakhshan province erupted due to the killing of two civilians by the Taliban. The Taliban responded with a combination of negotiation and force. While a delegation led by Fasihuddin Fitrat, the Taliban’s Chief of Army and a local of Badakhshan, was sent to address the protesters' concerns, reports of forced removals, threats, and violence against demonstrators also emerged. IIt seems that the local farmers have requested an exemption from the poppy cultivation ban, probably citing the need for opiates due to a high level of addiction in that province—a request that has not been granted. Historically, opiates have been used in the region as a substitute for medicine, owing to the challenges of accessing conventional healthcare in this remote area.
In the midst of the unrest, an explosion in Faizabad caused casualties among Taliban forces. Although the Taliban claimed to have arrested the perpetrator, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) also claimed responsibility, highlighting the complex security challenges facing the region. The protests in Badakhshan also exposed internal rifts within the Taliban, with non-Pashtun members expressing frustration over perceived discrimination and disrespect towards Abdul Hamid Khorasani, a prominent Tajik-Taliban commander. These divisions underscore the challenges the Taliban faces in consolidating its rule and establishing a unified government.
Timeline of Events
May 3-4, 2024: Protests begin in Darayim and Argo districts of Badakhshan over the killing of civilians and the Taliban's poppy eradication campaign.
May 6, 2024: Taliban delegation arrives in Badakhshan to negotiate with protesters.
May 8, 2024: Explosion in Faizabad causes casualties. ISKP claims responsibility. Taliban claims to have arrested the perpetrator.
May 9, 2024: Taliban cuts off telecommunication services in some areas.
These events are not unprecedented. In 2023, Badakhshan became a focal point for tensions due to the Taliban's aggressive eradication of poppy cultivation. This crackdown triggered conflicts with local farmers, who depend on poppy farming for their livelihoods due to the lack of viable economic alternatives in the region. The international research firm Alcis noted a significant reduction in opium production across most Afghan provinces, by over 90% between 2022 and 2023. However, in Badakhshan, satellite data revealed an increase in the land used for poppy cultivation. This indicates a nuanced implementation of the poppy ban, with the Taliban showing more flexibility in Badakhshan compared to other regions like Helmand, which has historically been a compliant stronghold for the Taliban where local opposition is minimal.
Helmand’s agricultural setup is characterized by higher land ownership and lower population density, making it easier to manage under the Taliban's policies. In contrast, Badakhshan, with its higher poverty levels and denser population, presents a different challenge. Additionally, many residents rely on remittances from family members in Iran and Pakistan, countries currently expediting the deportation of Afghan refugees.
Badakhshan’s strategic importance extends beyond domestic issues. It serves as a critical transit hub connecting Central Asia, China, and Pakistan, and has historically been a corridor for fighters allied with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The Taliban's control over such a geopolitically significant region is vital for maintaining their status in the broader region, which makes the unrest particularly problematic.
The local resistance in Badakhshan highlights a significant policy dilemma for the Taliban: how to enforce their anti-poppy decrees without sparking widespread unrest. The demands for alternative livelihoods are growing louder, with both local farmers and international bodies calling for sustainable economic solutions. The conflict over poppy cultivation in Badakhshan is symptomatic of larger socio-economic issues, including the need for viable alternative livelihoods to prevent economic migration and potential radicalization.
Despite these challenges, the unrest over poppy cultivation has not escalated to the level of armed uprisings or mass protests against other Taliban policies, such as the ban on girls' education. This indicates that the immediate concerns of many locals are centered on economic survival rather than broader political change or resistance to the Taliban's rule. The situation in Badakhshan remains a complex blend of economic desperation, geopolitical significance, and the harsh realities of Taliban governance, which continues to impact the daily lives of its inhabitants.
Conclusion
The recent unrest in two districts of Badakhshan does not signify the start of a widespread uprising against the Taliban, nor does it have the capacity to significantly alter the security dynamics within the province. Moreover, the likelihood of this disturbance extending to other provinces is minimal. Therefore, Badakhshan should not be considered the northern equivalent of Helmand, and it does not pose a critical threat to Taliban governance. Although the increasing insecurity may highlight some underlying grievances, potentially driving individuals to join groups opposing the Taliban, such as resistance forces or ISIS, this will not dramatically shift the balance of power in favor of these anti-Taliban elements. The Taliban maintain a strong foothold in the northern provinces and have effectively utilized both lenient and stringent measures to quell any unrest.
AFGHAN NEWS
Taliban Admission: Corruption Surges by 80 to 90 Percent in The Second Emirate
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Approximately three years have passed since the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan. Many residents of the country have stated during this time that corruption has unprecedentedly increased in the subordinate offices of this group, prompting Taliban officials to also acknowledge corruption within their government.
Taliban officials, who served in the first regime and still hold positions, privately acknowledge that corruption in the current Taliban emirate has surged by 80 to 90 percent compared to their initial rule.
A source informed the Hasht-e Subh Daily that Taliban officials acknowledge the unprecedented extent of corruption within their government, with “the narrative of thieves” now prevalent in their regime. This Taliban insider stated, “We witnessed lawlessness in the first emirate, but not corruption. If there was any corruption, it was minimal, around 10 percent, but it never reached this scale.”
REGIONAL NEWS
Nobel Laureate's Letter Condemns Conditions for Older Female Inmates
Iran International News
In another letter from prison, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi is criticizing the harsh conditions faced by elderly female political prisoners in Tehran’s infamous Evin Prison.
Mohammadi, known for her human rights advocacy, referred to the detention of 21 Iranian women over the age of 60.
Evin prison – a primary site for political detainees – has long been known for its serious human rights abuses against dissidents.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
USIP report warns of rising terrorist threats from Afghanistan, Pakistan
Amu TV
The U.S. Institute of Peace said that a report of its senior study group on counter-terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan set to be released on May 14 has urged Washington to be prepared for increasing terrorist threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“The findings identify dominant terrorist threats, the stakes of these threats for U.S. interests, and policy options for the United States,” the institute stated.
Tricia Bacon, a member of the study group, highlighted the Afghanistan-based affiliate of the Islamic State, ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K), also known as Daesh Khorasan, as the key terrorist threat in the region. “Although the Taliban has incentives to counter ISIS-K, its continued attacks outside Afghanistan show it is either unable or unwilling to fulfill its commitments under the U.S.-Taliban Doha agreement to prevent terrorism from emanating from Afghanistan,” she said.
The Taliban's Return, Broken Promises and Evolving Central Asian Ties
Elia Preto Martini
In August 2021, the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan after a 20–year insurgency following the U.S.–led invasion of 2001. At that time, the Taliban regime was supporting Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. When they returned to power, the Taliban reassured the international community they were eager to fight terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban have reneged on these promises because they rely on many terrorist groups to maintain control of the country. This situation has hurt their ties with Central Asian countries such as China and Russia.
The majority of Central Asian countries, especially those not sharing a border with Afghanistan, like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan, engaged with the Taliban after their return to power. Their realpolitik approach aims to provide the Taliban with political support in exchange for commitments to restore security in Afghanistan. However, according to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index, terrorist incidents, fatalities, and injuries have increased in Afghanistan compared with the previous year.
Republican Congressmen Seek Clarification on 2021 Kabul Airport Attack
Besmellah Zahid
Members of the US Congress seek clarification from the Biden Administration regarding the discrepancies between CNN and Pentagon reports on the 2021 Kabul airport attack, which killed 13 US service members and 170 Afghan citizens.
CNN reported that nine Republican members of Congress wrote a letter to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Tuesday, May 7, urging him in the strongest terms to address the disparity between the US Central Command (CENTCOM) investigations and CNN’s recent report.
The deadly explosion occurred on August 26, 2021, during the US and NATO military withdrawal from Afghanistan, as thousands of people rushed to Kabul airport desperately trying to flee after the Taliban swiftly took control of the country.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 72.13 AFN (as of 12 May 2024)