The Week of March 25-31
Security and Conflict
ISKP Warning and Statement on Attack – On Monday, ISKP issued a threat statement in Russian, English, Uzbek, Tajik, Tajik, Turkish, Pashto and Farsi, regarding the mistreatment of the suspects in last week’s Moscow Attack. The response noted the organization's plan to retaliate for the treatment of the 4 Moscow attack suspects.
Killing of Civilians in Farah – On Monday, civilians in the Balabloak district of Farah province blocked a highway in protest following a distressing incident where Taliban forces reportedly killed several innocent people. The demonstrators are demanding the removal of the district and provincial governors appointed by the Taliban, reflecting widespread anger due to the lack of legal governance. The situation has worsened as low and mid-level Taliban officials enforce arbitrary regulations, significantly eroding public trust in the authorities. Unverified reports also suggest the Taliban's retaliatory killing of 3 civilians in response to the protest.
GDI Official Killed – A Taliban intelligence member, Fazlurrabi, was assassinated by unidentified gunmen in Laghman province's Qarghayi district on March 28. Occurring around 9:00 PM in the Charbagh area, the 35-year-old was attacked en route home. The Taliban haven't commented, and while no group has claimed responsibility, anti-Taliban factions are active in the region.
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
Statement on Hudud Punishments – Taliban leader Hebatullah Akhundzada, in a recently released voice clip, criticized Western rights for women and declared a continued opposition to Western democracy. He committed to a long-term fight against the West, emphasizing the implementation of Sharia law. This includes public punishments like stoning and flogging for women, aligning with his vision of combating what he perceives as Western immorality.
Womens’ Rights Activists Detained – Taliban officials detained 3 sisters — Azada Rezaei, Nadia Rezaei, and Elaha Rezaei (14 years old) — all activists within the Afghan Women's Justice Movement, along with their brother, Yahya Rezaei, in Kabul's Dashte Barchi neighborhood. They were taken from their home during a raid and moved to an undisclosed location. Efforts by relatives to ascertain their whereabouts through the police and the Ministry of Interior have been unsuccessful. Another sister had been detained previously and was released after 29 days.
Abduction of Woman in Ghor – In Ghor province, Afghanistan, Taliban members abducted a teenage girl named Parwana amid a dowry dispute, sparking outrage. It is reported that the 17-year-old girl was forced into marriage with a Taliban fighter known as "Shah Wali." Along with other Taliban officials, including Khairkhawa, the district governor; Khalid, the Taliban security commander; Tawhidi, the intelligence in-charge; and Mushfaq, the deputy intelligence officer, as well as a number of gunmen, Shah Wali stormed Parwana's home. They attacked her mother, sisters, and other relatives before taking her away against the wishes of both her and her family. Video evidence shows the assault on her family as she was forcibly taken. The incident, involving high-ranking Taliban officials, was confirmed by Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, who stated that those involved are undergoing interrogation by a military court.
ANSF Arrests – This week, 3 former Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) soldiers, identified as Jafar, Naeem, and Samim, were arrested in Khinj District, Panjshir Province, by officials from the Governmental Directorate of Intelligence (GDI). Details remain scarce. In a separate case, Mohammad Nasir Nawabi, a former Commander of the National Security Training Center, was arrested on Thursday in Karte Parwan.
Floggings – On Tuesday, individuals in Baghlan and Farah provinces were flogged for alleged moral crimes before receiving prison sentences. Additionally, on Thursday, five individuals in Kandahar faced flogging on charges of moral corruption, and two were flogged in Kabul for moral crimes.
Internal Politics
Taliban Purification Committee – Mullah Yaqoob, Taliban's Acting Minister of Defense and leader of their purification commission, asserts in an official letter that no authority can interfere with the commission's work. The Taliban has started purging its ranks, with operations in all provinces being overseen by the deputy governor. The letter also mandates that members must be stationed where they fought during the 20-year conflict, addressing internal objections and accusations of discrimination within the commission. Rumors have surfaced that the Commission is aimed at finding and purging ISKP members or sympathizers who may have infiltrated the Taliban ranks.
Hekmatyar Evicted – In recent developments marked by escalating tensions over property claims in Afghanistan, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hizb-e Islami party, was evicted from his residence this week. The eviction followed a property claim made by the Taliban's Minister of Defense. The situation has sparked conflicting reports about the specifics of the eviction and the underlying reasons. In response, supporters of both the Taliban and Hizb-e Islami have turned to social media to express their positions on the dispute, illustrating the polarized perspectives within Afghan political circles. On Saturday, the Acting Minister of Justice, Abdul Hakeem Sharayee, issued a statement on the ongoing dispute between Hezb-e Islami and the Taliban, noting that political parties, including Hizb-e Islami are illegal and that mentioning the name of a party is a crime.
International Meetings and Developments
IOM Report on Migrant Deaths – The UN's IOM issued a report highlighting a grim record of 1,181 Afghan deaths on migration routes in 2023, marking the highest number in a decade. The majority of these fatalities occurred on the dangerous journey from Afghanistan to Iran, with migrants enduring harsh desert conditions in Nimruz, Farah, and Herat, alongside threats from smugglers. Notably, the report indicates a significant increase in migrant deaths following the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021.The full report can be found here.
Freedom of the Press
Journalists Detained – Abdullah Ahmadi, a journalist with Channel One, was detained by Taliban intelligence in Kunduz while covering a meeting on Sunday. On the same day, three additional journalists, whose names were not disclosed, were also detained. Although the unnamed journalists were released after several hours of interrogation, Ahmadi remains in custody.
Afghan Youtuber Detained – On Thursday, the Taliban detained Hamayon Afghan, a well-known YouTuber, along with 4 colleagues. They were released later. Khalid Zadran, a Taliban spokesperson, claimed the detention stemmed from a complaint by the family of an elderly woman who appeared in one of their interviews. This claim has been disputed by Hamayon Afghan and his colleagues, who denied any wrongdoing in the matter.
Regional Developments
Deportations from Pakistan – The Pakistani government has announced plans for the second phase of expelling Afghan migrants, specifically targeting those holding Alien's Registration Cards (ACC) or temporary residence permits. This action is expected to affect approximately one million individuals. Authorities plan to complete residence mappings by April 30, post-Ramadan, with the expulsions potentially beginning as early as April 15. This follows an earlier effort where about half a million migrants were returned to Afghanistan, after last year's announcement aiming to expel 1.7 million undocumented individuals. Amnesty International has expressed concerns, stating that these deportation plans could endanger the lives of thousands of Afghan migrants.
Drones Over Afghanistan – Several days this week, drones have been spotted flying over parts of southern Afghanistan. Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate, stated that American drones have breached Afghan airspace over Kandahar and Nimroz. He emphasized the US's responsibility to stop such aggression, noting that the Islamic Emirate has lodged multiple protests against these violations. This follows US statements expressing concerns about the ISKP's capabilities to stage attacks abroad from Afghanistan. Additional instances of drones patrolling have been reported, with videos provided from Paktika, Herat, Panjshir, Badakhshan, Kunar, and Laghman provinces. The US has not confirmed whether the drones are theirs.
Bilateral Trade Agreement – Senior ministry officials from Afghanistan and Pakistan engaged in discussions to enhance trade and transit relations. They agreed to finalize the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Agreement (Apta), improve the facilitation of goods transfer in Karachi, set tariff preferences for certain exports, implement a temporary free truck traffic license, and initiate multi-modal air transit. These talks also aimed at bettering banking relations and increasing the trade of coal and cotton, with a strong emphasis on keeping business interests separate from political issues for the mutual benefit of both countries.
NEXT WEEK
As Ramadan nears its conclusion, the final Friday is politically significant, known as the Day of Quds (Jerusalem Day). This day, marked by large gatherings encouraged by Iran and Shia communities in the region, sees an elevated risk of IS (Islamic State) attacks. The commemoration, observed in various cities across Iran, has recently experienced a fatal IS assault. Despite the Taliban's prohibition on gatherings and demonstrations, the Day of Quds is likely to be commemorated in major mosques within Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif, with an increased threat of IS attacks.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Concerns over Nuclear Capabilities – In a recent interview, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi highlighted concerns about Iran's nuclear program's transparency, akin to the pre-Iraq War era. He warned that without Iran's full cooperation, the IAEA cannot confirm the program's peaceful intent. Iran's restricted access to inspectors, reminiscent of Iraq's previous non-cooperation, could lead to severe consequences. Grossi emphasized the growing complexity and level of Iran's nuclear material, stressing the importance of inspection for global safety. Additionally, he described the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as outdated due to technological advancements and voiced concerns over Iran's new, potentially indestructible nuclear site, urging immediate international attention to prevent a nuclear threat.
Death of Activist Following Detention – Mahnaz Khazaee, a former Iranian political prisoner, died following a stroke, likely due to abuse in custody. She battled cancer and multiple sclerosis, was previously detained for protesting, and had her medical records seized by intelligence agents. Her death highlights a troubling pattern of mistreatment and suspicious fatalities among political detainees in Iran, including Sara Tabrizi, Mosayeb Yeganeh, Shahin Gallehdari, and Hasan Omarpour.
PAKISTAN
Dera Ismail Khan Operation – 4 TTP militants were reportedly killed in Pakistani intelligence operations on Monday in Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Reports indicate the group was planning an attack in Kolachi.
Border Guards Threaten Protests – Forest guards in Lower South Waziristan have threatened to protest if their salaries, withheld for two years, are not released by next Friday. They are experiencing severe financial difficulties due to unpaid wages amid rising inflation. The guards plan to boycott polio campaigns and protest in Tank and Dera Ismail Khan if the issue remains unresolved, citing the misallocation of promised funds. A broader regional funding issue was cited by the department.
Turbat Attack – On Monday, PNS Siddique, Pakistan’s second-largest naval air station located in Turbat, faced a significant security incident on Monday. The base, known for hosting Chinese drones, was attacked. The BLA Majeed Brigade claimed responsibility, and four attackers were killed. The BLA also claimed that 30 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the attack.
Attack on Chinese Engineers – A suicide attack targeting a convoy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, killed five Chinese nationals employed by CGGC and a Pakistani driver. The convoy was en route from Islamabad to the Dasu hydroelectric dam site when it was hit. Authorities have stated that the extension of the Tarbela project has been halted until further notice due to security concerns. On March 28, China sent an investigative team to collaborate with local authorities and the companies involved in the attack.
IED Attack – 15 security personnel were wounded and one was killed in Oddi Khan, Harani District, Balochistan, when a Mari Petroleum vehicle was hit by an IED on Saturday.
RUSSIA
Deportations – Reports and videos that surfaced on Tuesday show immigrants being deported en masse from Moscow Airport.
New Information on Attackers – The Islamic State, in its publication Al Naba Issue 436, confirmed the detention of attackers who had targeted Crocus City Hall in Moscow. The attackers were encircled in a forest, where the report indicates their rifles malfunctioned, prompting them to resort to knives before ultimately fleeing the scene. On Friday, it was reported that Tajik authorities arrested 9 individuals in connection to the attacks in Moscow.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/03/moscow-concert-hall-attack-will-have-far-reaching-impact
Moscow Concert Hall Attack Will Have Far-Reaching Impact
ISIS’ claim of responsibility for the attack is a challenge to the Taliban as well as U.S. interests.
By USIP
A 6 points summary of the paper:
1. ISIS-K's Strategic Ambitions: The claim of responsibility by ISIS-K for the Moscow concert hall attack marks a significant declaration of intent to project its influence beyond Afghanistan, challenging global powers and attempting to destabilize regions outside its immediate geographic area. This ambition to assert dominance in the global jihadist arena is critical for understanding the group's future strategy and potential threats.
2. Taliban's Governance and Security Challenges: The attack underscores significant challenges for the Taliban in preventing ISIS-K from conducting international terrorism. This not only questions the Taliban's claim of securing Afghanistan against terrorist threats but also affects its legitimacy and governance capabilities, raising serious concerns about its ability to maintain security and control within its borders.
3. Russia's Response and Security Posture: Russia's attribution of the attack to Ukraine without substantial evidence, alongside its internal security response, indicates political motives and highlights concerns about the effectiveness of its counterterrorism strategies. A historical perspective on Russia's responses to similar threats could elucidate the effectiveness and political implications of its current security measures.
4. Geopolitical Implications: The attack has profound implications for international relations, particularly affecting Russia's stance towards the Taliban and its broader counterterrorism strategies. It could potentially strain U.S.-Russia relations and impact the global counterterrorism coalition, necessitating a closer examination of diplomatic moves, policy shifts, and the international community's response to the Taliban's governance of Afghanistan.
5. Impact on Central Asians in Russia: Anticipated socio-economic repercussions for Central Asian migrants in Russia, including discrimination and policy shifts, are of significant concern. Analyzing statistical data on remittances, labor market changes, public sentiment, and governmental rhetoric towards Central Asian communities post-attack could provide insights into the broader societal and economic impacts.
6. U.S. Security Concerns and Policy Reevaluation: The U.S.'s concerns about ISIS-K's capabilities and ambitions post-attack highlight the need for a strategic reassessment of the threat posed by the group. Exploring recent U.S. intelligence assessments, policy statements, and potential shifts in counterterrorism and foreign policy strategies towards Afghanistan and the region would be crucial for understanding the strategic implications of the attack.
AFGHAN NEWS
Half of Afghanistan’s Population Struggles with Psychological Distress, Says WHO
Besmellah Zahidi
The World Health Organization (WHO) says that an alarming 50% of people in Afghanistan are grappling with psychological distress, which has severely affected productivity as well as quality of life in the country.
At a meeting held on the sidelines of the 67th session of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs in Austria on Monday, March 25, Dr. Hanan Balkhy, WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighted that individuals impacted by psychological distress are vulnerable to mental health and substance use disorders. However, as he said, only limited support is accessible through the country’s health and social care system.
Germany Provides Over $16 Million for Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan
Besmellah Zahidi
The government of Germany has allocated an additional €15 million ($16.4 million) in humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan, bringing its total contribution to the impoverished country to over $83 million since last year.
In a statement released on Tuesday, March 26, the World Food Program (WFP) expressed gratitude for Germany’s latest funding. The funds, WFP says, will be used to enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities and support the organization’s school feeding initiatives, crucial for keeping girls and boys in primary schools.
REGIONAL NEWS
More Than Just Islamic State: Rising Militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan
There has been a wave of attacks across Pakistan in recent weeks by militant groups operating in the region that have widely varying objectives.
This week, a suicide attacker killed five Chinese nationals and their Pakistani driver in a convoy in Pakistan’s northwest. Pakistani Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, is the usual suspect for such attacks in the northwest, but in a statement on Wednesday, it denied being behind targeting the Chinese workers.
Earlier, two suicide attacks in Pakistan’s restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province killed nine Pakistani troops in the third week of March.
Tajik diaspora in Russia living in terror following Crocus City Massacre
Eurasia Net
In the days since the mass killing at the Crocus City concert hall near Moscow, blameless Tajik migrants across Russia have been subjected to threats, verbal abuse and increased harassment from law enforcement.
Panic is mounting – not just among Tajiks, but other Central Asian expatriate diasporas too – about the potential long-term fallout of intensified discrimination fueled by rage over an attack that has left more than 140 people dead.
Türkiye questions why ‘anti-US’ Daesh hit it, Russia, Iran
Daily Sabah
In the wake of a terror attack at a Moscow concert hall that killed more than 130 people, Türkiye is questioning why the Daesh terror group has consistently targeted the same region, namely Türkiye, Iran, Afghanistan and Russia, despite being a self-proclaimed “anti-U.S.” group.
“It’s notable that Daesh, considered to be one of the bloodiest terrorist organizations, and its so-called offshoot Daesh-Khorasan Province (Daesh-K), have carried out their recent attacks in the same region,” Turkish security sources said Monday in a statement.
Islam Says that You Cannot Stay Ignorant: Malala Yousafzai
The Express Tribune
In a recent interview with Muslim Girl, Malala Yousafzai provided an insightful view into her thought process behind elements such as faith, education, and current crises, among other things. Talking about global priorities in terms of causes, Malala shared, "With so many crises impacting our world — war, climate change, poverty, discrimination — it can be difficult to know where to lend support. But for me, education will always be a priority because I know it has the potential to drive progress on all fronts."
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
We have long been worried about IS-K’s potential for terrorist activities: US Department of State
Aamaj
Matthew Miller, the spokesperson of the United States Department of State, said in a press conference in Washington that they have long been worried about IS-K’s potential for terrorist activities.
Referring to the IS-K recent attacks in Russia and Iran, he added that they had warned Moscow and Tehran about these two terrorist attacks.
“We have made clear that we remain – need to remain vigilant against the threat of IS-K, and we’re working with our allies and partners to do just that,” said Miller.
Michael McCaul Calls for Release of American Citizen Held by Taliban, Criticizing Biden
Kabul Now
The Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, called for the immediate release of Ryan Corbett, an American citizen taken hostage by the Taliban since August 2022.
In a statement on Wednesday, March 27, Mr. McCaul criticized the Biden administration for not doing enough to secure Ryan’s release despite his deteriorating health condition in Taliban prison.
Washington Institute
Opinion
Russia-Afghanistan relations in the aftermath of the Moscow attack
Vanda Felbab-Brown
The horrific terrorist attack against the Crocus concert hall in Moscow has been claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the same Afghanistan-based terrorist group that bombed the Kabul airport’s Abbey Gate in August 2021, killing 13 U.S. soldiers and 170 Afghans. The United States has also attributed the attack to ISKP. Yet to deflect attention from the Russian security services’ incompetence and to instrumentalize the attack to increase Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian grip and war efforts in Ukraine, Russia’s propaganda is seeking to link the attack to Ukraine. This disinformation is part and parcel of Russia’s (and Iran’s) persistent lies that the United States created ISKP, as Russian interlocutors for years claimed to me and others.
Although the ISKP attack may complicate Russia’s relations with the Taliban, it is unlikely to alter them fundamentally. While the Taliban’s repeated promise that it would prevent international attacks from Afghan soil is further discredited, ISKP is the one terrorist group that the Taliban has been fighting with determination and consistency even after coming to power. Russia might ask the Taliban for further specific actions, but it has adjusted itself to Taliban rule, supporting the Taliban at multilateral fora, and it doesn’t really have alternatives in Afghanistan.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 71.20 AFN (as of 31 March 2024)