Security and Conflict
ISKP Kandahar Bank Attack – On Thursday, an ISKP suicide bomber carried out an attack at the Kabul Bank in PD1 of Kandahar. The attack occurred when numerous Taliban members were present to collect their salaries. Although reports on casualties vary, it appears that 43 people were killed and 45 were wounded. Taliban statements have suggested involvement of Pakistani IS with ISKP in this incident. The attack took place days after officials in Kandahar announced increased security measures. Taliban media has identified the attacker as Madyarov Asadbek, a citizen of an unnamed Central Asian country, who is believed to have been trained in Balochistan.
Cross border Strikes – Early Monday morning, the Pakistan Air Force conducted bombings in Spera, Khost, and Bermal, Paktika. Pakistan claimed these strikes were in retaliation for the attack in North Waziristan on March 17, implicating Qari Shah Rahman Badri, an Afghan national from Zarghon Shahr Village in the Mohammad Agha District of Logar, in the incident. They targeted Abdullah Shah Mehsud, a commander of the TTP, in the Bermal strike. However, later on Monday, a video showing Abdullah Shah Mehsud alive and in Pakistan was released. The Taliban and TTP contend that there are no TTP fighters in Afghanistan and assert that the strikes resulted in the deaths of five civilians, including two women and three children. Some reports suggest the casualties might be refugees from North Waziristan, yet there is no verified information regarding the identities of those killed. Additionally, there have been no public reports on casualties from the attack in Khost.
Crossborder fighting – Following the strikes, cross-border fighting broke out on Monday between Taliban fighters and Pakistani border guards in several locations, including Dand-e Patan, Paktika, Angot Edeh, and Tani District, Waszhala, Khost, with Taliban forces firing into the Kurram Tribal District, North Waziristan, and the lower tribal districts of South Waziristan. Additional cross-border fighting occurred in Barmal on Tuesday morning. The fighting included cross-border artillery fire, with the Taliban claiming to target nine Pakistani military bases, though this has not been confirmed. The Taliban confirmed the death of one soldier during the skirmish, but Pakistan has yet to release official casualty reports. The Taliban were seen moving tanks to the border earlier this week, and while active fighting has subsided, tensions remain high between the Taliban and the Pakistani government. As of Thursday, the Angoor Adda border with South Waziristan remained closed, while the Ghulam Khan border has reopened, and the Kharkachi border was expected to reopen.
ISKP Propaganda – ISPK released their most recent magazine indicating that they are still active in Afghanistan, despite Taliban assertions that the group is not active on Afghan soil. ISKP indicates that they plan to attack targets outside of Afghanistan, singling out Europe, the US, Russia, India and Iran, specifically mentioning the embassies of China, India and Iran in Afghanistan and promising retaliation for Pakistani airstrikes on civilians. In other statements, ISKP condemns the Taliban for ethnic based violence.
Taliban Leaked Message on ISKP – An unverified voice message, reportedly from the Taliban, has been leaked regarding issues related to ISKP. The message suggests that the Taliban are struggling in their fight against ISKP and urges Taliban leadership to revise its policy of distinguishing between IS and Salafi ideology, arguing that they are the same. It indicates that active Salafi madrassas in Nangarhar, Kunar, Nuristan, Kabul, and northern Afghanistan all serve as bases for ISKP. Furthermore, the message states that ISKP has safe havens in Orakzai Agency, Yakatoot in Peshawar, Islamabad, Krash Adda in Quetta, and Abbottabad in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. These locations may be used by Pakistani intelligence to carry out further attacks on Afghan territory. The message conveys that ISKP is perceived as the biggest threat to Taliban rule in Afghanistan, as opposed to other resistance groups, which are likened to mercenaries.
IS Arrests in Germany – On Tuesday, German authorities arrested two Afghan individuals in connection with a terrorist plot. In the summer of 2023, ISKP assigned the suspects the task of executing an attack in Europe as a response to Quran burnings occurring in Sweden and other Scandinavian countries. Prior to their arrest, the suspects had made specific plans for an attack, attempted to acquire weapons, and had raised funds for ISKP.
International Meetings and Developments
SIV Program Extension – On Saturday, Congress passed and President Biden signed the reauthorization of the Afghan Allies Protection Act through the government funding bill. This action signifies the United States' continued commitment to support and protect Afghan allies who served alongside U.S. forces during the war in Afghanistan, via the AAPA, commonly known as the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program. The bill specifies the allocation of an additional 12,000 visas for Afghan allies under the Afghan SIV program and extends the program's end date to December 31, 2025.
Renewed Deportations From Pakistan – On Monday, Pakistan's Ministry of Interior directed the provincial governments in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Balochistan to initiate the second phase of the expulsion of Afghan citizens starting April 15. This phase includes the deportation of holders of the 'Afghan Citizen Card' (ACC). Reports indicate that lists of those to be deported are currently being compiled, and Afghan nationals are being urged to voluntarily return to their country or face the risk of arrest and deportation. Rights groups have expressed concerns about the compilation and distribution of lists of ACC holders to the provinces. According to the International IOM, since November 1, 2024, approximately 525,000 Afghans have been deported to Afghanistan through the Spin Boldak and Torkham border crossings.
US Foreign Affairs Committee Hearing on US Withdrawal – On Tuesday, the US House Foreign Affairs Committee conducted a hearing to scrutinize the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the events leading to the Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) from Kabul. The session included detailed testimonies from retired General Mark Milley, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and retired General Kenneth McKenzie, the former Commander of U.S. Central Command. They explored the NEO's planning and execution, outlining obstacles like the collapse of the Afghan government, the Taliban’s quick territorial conquests, and the resultant turmoil at Kabul airport.They also addressed questions about the prior intelligence assessments regarding Kabul's fall, probing potential miscalculations or oversight by the U.S. government. Furthermore, their testimonies highlighted the critical roles played by the Department of State and the Department of Defense, underscoring the decision-making process and the coordination between departments throughout the operation. The HFAC hearing thoroughly examined the cooperation between these departments and the chronology of essential decisions. The full hearing can be accessed here
EU on Food Security – On Wednesday, the EU and Action Against Hunger announced that they would contribute five million Euros to assist with food security and agriculture in Ghor, Daykundi, and Badakhshan. This initiative aims to improve agricultural production, support local businesses, and enhance the transfer of farming knowledge, with a particular focus on women and youth. The project addresses acute food insecurity and aims to make communities more resilient.
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
Flogging in Ghor – One individual was flogged in Ghor province on Saturday on charges of moral corruption.
Arrests of Hospital Staff In Herat – On Sunday, 4 employees of the Herat Provincial Hospital were arrested by the Taliban, including the chief physician, a laboratory technician, a doctor, and an administrative employee. No details are available regarding the reason for the arrests.
Schools Reopen – Schools in Afghanistan reopened this week with continuing restrictions: girls above grade six, and in Kandahar, girls over age 10, are barred from attending. Additionally, this week saw reports of violent, extremist teachings in several young madrassa students' curricula across the country, accompanied by a shortage of textbooks and educational materials for school-aged boys.
Freedom of the Press
Girls Banned from Journalism Program – In Nangarhar, the Taliban have barred girls from participating in short-term radio and journalism training programs. A previous session of the program was shut down last month after Taliban officials discovered that young women were involved. The Taliban have threatened permanent closure of the program should girls or women attempt to participate.
Regional Developments
Torkham Fight – On Sunday, the Torkham border was briefly closed to pedestrians following a fight between two Pakistani organizations, the Frontier Corps (FC) and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA). The dispute was reportedly related to allegations of corruption and concerns about whether Afghans had been allowed to pass through the border without proper documentation and visas. Thirteen Pakistani officials were injured as a result of the incident.
Minister Meets with Uzbek Officials – On Thursday, a meeting took place between the Acting Minister of Industry and Commerce of Afghanistan and officials from Uzbekistan at Hairatan port, focusing on enhancing international transport connections and streamlining visa processes for Afghan drivers. The Ministry of Transport and Aviation highlighted the attendance of key sectors, including finance, foreign affairs, trade, and railways, underlining the meeting's importance in bolstering multilateral cooperation.
Fires on Tajik Border – On Saturday, Tajikistan's border forces set sections of forests on fire in the Dasht-e Qala and Darqad districts of Takhar. Reports indicate that the fires were set in an attempt to combat drug trafficking in the area.
NEXT WEEK
Tensions are likely to remain high between Pakistan and Afghanistan and sporadic skirmishes may close border crossings without warning.
Those in Pakistan should be aware of the plans to continue with deportations and should be cautious when moving, even if they have the proper documentation to remain in Pakistan.
Ramadan is often exploited by jihadist groups, including ISKP, who intensify their attacks targeting vulnerable communities and Taliban forces during this period. Additionally, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas may escalate violence in the region, contributing to a heightened threat environment.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Executions in Iran – Iran executed at least 834 people in 2023, marking the second-highest number of executions in two decades, according to a report by rights groups. The report, released on Tuesday by the Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) and the Paris-based Together Against the Death Penalty (ECPM), suggests that the 43 percent increase in capital punishment last year was in response to nationwide protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022.
Iran’s currency Hits Record Low- Iran's currency reached a record low on Sunday, plunging to 613,500 to the dollar, just as its citizens were celebrating the Persian New Year. On the same day, individuals were attempting to exchange rials for foreign currency at the main hub of exchange shops on Tehran’s Ferdowsi Street. However, most of these shops were closed due to the Nowruz holidays, which run from March 20 to April 2
US Sanctions on Iran-Linked Company – The United States has imposed sanctions on a shipping company which it accuses of facilitating the transfer of Iranian commodities linked to a Houthi official to China. On Wednesday, the US Department of the Treasury announced measures against the firm Vishnu Inc, registered in the Marshall Islands, citing involvement of one of its vessels in 'illicit shipments'. The department stated that the cargo supported Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) and Houthi financial facilitator Sa’id al-Jamal, who is sanctioned under US counterterrorism authorities.
PAKISTAN
Gwadar Attack – On Wednesday, BLA Majeed Brigade, the BLA suicide bomber unit, carried out an attack on the Gwadar Port Authority which houses Pakistani intelligence and Chinese nationals in Balochistan, Pakistan. The 8 attackers were able to infiltrate the area after an initial grenade explosion and entered the area firing at authorities. The attack left several buildings in flames. The attack left 6 Pakistani security personnel killed and 24 injured. All 8 of the BLA attackers died in the course of the attack.
Statement on Possibly Trade with India – Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced considerations to reevaluate trade relations with India, paused since India revoked autonomy in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019. Speaking in London after attending a summit in Brussels, Dar conveyed the Pakistani business community's interest in resuming trade. He mentioned the economic challenges faced by Pakistan and detailed plans for a five-year economic roadmap to foster progress and reduce inflation.
Waziristan Operation – On the night of March 19,, Pakistani Security Forces conducted an operation in North Waziristan, resulting in the death of two terrorists and injury of two others after a fierce exchange of fire. Weapons, ammunition, and explosives were seized. The deceased were involved in various terrorist activities. A sanitization operation is ongoing to remove any remaining threats, underlining Pakistan's commitment to eradicating terrorism.
Asad Ali Toor Released on Bail – On March 15, Pakistani authorities released journalist Asad Ali Toor after 20 days in jail for allegedly spreading "anti-state" content via social media. Advocates for free speech demanded his release, criticizing the use of Pakistan's stringent laws against him. Toor, known for criticizing the military and judiciary, faced pressure to reveal sources. His arrest follows similar actions against journalists like Imran Riaz Khan, hinting at a broader crackdown on press freedom and dissent in Pakistan.
Dera Ismail Khan Attack – A roadside bomb targeted a security convoy in Dera Ismail Khan, northwestern Pakistan, killing 2 soldiers and injuring 15. The area was once a Pakistani Taliban stronghold. While no group has claimed the attack at this time, TTP is a likely suspect.
RUSSIA
Moscow Attack – The Saturday attack on the Crocus music hall, which the ISK claimed responsibility for, resulted in at least 137 fatalities and over 100 injuries. Dressed in combat gear, assailants stormed the venue and unleashed gunfire and explosives, creating panic among the attendees. This incident is one of the most significant acts of terrorism in Russia in recent years, drawing global attention and condemnation. Previously, the US had warned Moscow that ISIS militants were determined to target large gatherings in Russia, including concerts. Authorities reported that the attackers set the venue on fire, which led to a massive blaze. Authorities arrested four individuals, reportedly Tajik citizens, near the Russian border. Putin publicly linked the attacks to Ukraine, a claim strongly denied by Ukraine and the international community. Islamic State has since released a video of the attack. The 4 suspects, Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, Saidakrami Murodali Rachabalizoda, Shamsidin Fariduni and Muhammadsobir Fayzov all appeared in a Moscow court on Monday morning and were charged with acts of terrorism.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Shades of Terror: The ISKP Enigma
By TAD
In Afghanistan, there was an adage that suggested the void left by the Taliban's absence would inevitably be filled by another group, hinting at the perpetual cycle of conflict fueled by the longstanding animosity between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This regional tension suggests that any Kabul government would inevitably face opposition, manipulated as a geopolitical tool when needed. The rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria provided the groundwork for the birth of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in 2015. While it's plausible that such factions emerge organically, inspired by ISIS's Levantine operations, the creation of these groups isn't merely black and white. There's substantial discourse suggesting Pakistan's strategic interests in fostering a variant of ISIS, beyond the 'official' narrative, reminiscent of the history with Al-Qaeda—highlighted by the presence of its leader in Pakistan, ultimately eliminated by U.S. forces from Afghanistan. This point gains credence considering India's long standing-accusations against Pakistan regarding the perpetration of terrorism within its borders, including in Kashmir.
Currently, ISKP appears to be reinvigorated, particularly at a time when Kabul-Islamabad relations are strained. Notably, the ISKP, has been reportedly active in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—a region known for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activity. For ISKP to consolidate its strength, it arguably requires a sanctuary beyond the Afghan Taliban's reach. Historically, numerous Central Asians were attracted to Pakistani madrasas, which were funded by Gulf patrons, leading to their engagement in jihad. Many of these individuals attended training camps in Kashmir or aligned with the Taliban, alongside Chechen and Arab jihadists.The dissolution of the Islamic State's territories in Iraq and Syria left many Central Asian militants adrift, with some returning to Pakistan and Afghanistan amidst ongoing unrest, while others were taken back by their home countries for rehabilitation.
The Taliban has historically combated ISKP's influence, viewing it as a formidable threat. Despite this, various factions within ISKP managed to survive, particularly after the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces in August 2021, which led to mass prison breakouts. Intriguingly, both the U.S. and Iran, despite their own contentious relationship, concur on the Taliban's efforts against ISKP, although Iran has controversially accused the U.S. of facilitating ISKP's migration from the Middle East to Afghanistan without substantiating evidence.
The ISKP exemplifies the multifaceted nature of ISIS, with factions operating with divergent goals—ranging from waging jihad against the Taliban, targeting Shias, to aspiring for a Caliphate. However, with the Taliban's resurgence and acquisition of substantial military assets, the likelihood of ISKP consolidating territorial control within Afghanistan seems minimal. Yet, this does not preclude ISKP affiliates from executing attacks regionally, as seen in recent incidents in Iran, Turkey, and Russia. The recent attack in Moscow, for instance, presented the Taliban an opportunity to propose counterterrorism cooperation with Russia. This gesture could be interpreted as either a diplomatic outreach or a calculated move to avert potential backlash.
In conclusion, while the Taliban's previous downfall in 2001 was partly due to their association with Al-Qaeda, it's evident they are cautious not to harbor another international terror conglomerate like ISKP, risking a similar fate.
AFGHAN NEWS
Al Qaeda Is Back—and Thriving—in Afghanistan
Lynne O’Donnell
Al Qaeda is back to its old tricks in Afghanistan. Much as it did before masterminding the 9/11 attacks, the terrorist group is running militant training camps; sharing the profits of the Taliban’s illicit drug, mining, and smuggling enterprises; and funneling the proceeds to affiliated jihadi groups worldwide.
An unpublished report circulating among Western diplomats and U.N. officials details how deeply embedded the group once run by Osama bin Laden is in the Taliban’s operations, as they loot Afghanistan’s natural wealth and steal international aid meant to alleviate the suffering of millions of Afghans.
Pakistan Strikes and Taliban Warnings: Ramifications Extend Beyond Islamabad’s Control
Amin Kawa
Pakistani authorities have consistently accused the Taliban regime of sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants within Afghan territory over the past year. The country’s military has repeatedly issued warnings of retaliation against armed adversaries operating from Afghanistan. A day before Pakistan’s military airstrikes and rocket attacks, the President of Pakistan, speaking at the funeral of eight soldiers, vowed retribution against the “terrorists.” Following this declaration, the Pakistani military carried out airstrikes and rocket assaults early on Monday, March 18, targeting areas in the Sabari and Bermel districts of Paktika and Khost provinces. Local sources report that eight individuals, including five family members of a TTP commander, were killed in these attacks. Concurrently, the Taliban, through a statement and by summoning Pakistan’s ambassador, announced heavy assaults on Pakistani military outposts along the Durand Line. The group claims that such attacks have repercussions beyond Pakistan’s control. Additionally, local sources allege sporadic clashes between Taliban fighters and Pakistani border forces occurred yesterday in the provinces of Khost, Kunar, Paktika, and Paktia.
Return to the Unknown: Afghan Migrants' Journey Home
IOM
For decades, Afghans have sought refuge in Pakistan, seeking safety and better economic prospects. However, in recent months, the conditions for Afghans living in Pakistan have become increasingly difficult, forcing many to return to an unknown fate back home in Afghanistan.
Since November 2023, hundreds of thousands of Afghans have been forced to return after a decree by the Government of Pakistan on undocumented migrants went into effect. According to International Organization for Migration (IOM) data, an estimated 80 per cent of those affected are women and children.
WHO: Afghanistan’s Mental Health Crisis Need Urgent Action
Besmellah Zahidi
The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced plans to convene a meeting on the sidelines of the 67th session of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs in Vienna, Austria, to address the mental health crisis and disorders caused by drug use in Afghanistan.
In a statement on Tuesday, March 19, WHO said that the high-level side event titled “Deepening Crisis: Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders Paralyzing Afghan Society,” will be hosted in collaboration with UNODC, EU, and Japan on Thursday, March 21.
Taliban bans women working in Nangarhar carpet-weaving factories over claims of inappropriate hijabs
Rukshana
A new ban on women working in Nangarhar factories has been enacted by Taliban de facto authorities, forcing hundreds of women in carpet-weaving factories across six districts to stop working, according to local sources.
Women have been prohibited from working at carpet-weaving factories in Kot, Darai Nur, Behsud, Momand Dara, Goshta, and Bati Kot districts, a source who is working with local authorities but is not authorized to talk to the media said.
Taliban Demolishes a Cinema in Kabul In Effort to Erase Secular Culture
The Taliban municipality in Kabul approved the demolition plan of Khair Khana Cinema, one of a handful of theatres in the city.
The Taliban municipality has reportedly allocated the land of this cinema to a construction company for building a commercial market, a mosque, and residential blocks.
Khair Khana Cinema, located in the north of Kabul city, was built several decades ago when the cultural scene in Afghanistan was unimaginably vibrant. It was screening East Indian movies and was also available to stage live performances. The cinema was closed in August 2021 when the Taliban returned to power.
REGIONAL NEWS
Pakistan accuses ‘certain elements’ among Taliban of supporting TTP
Amu TV
Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that while Pakistan respects the Afghan people, “certain elements” within the Taliban are “actively supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and using it as a proxy against Pakistan”.
The ministry confirmed that Pakistan conducted “intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations in the border regions inside Afghanistan,” targeting militants affiliated with the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), both blamed for numerous terrorist attacks in Pakistan, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians and law enforcement officials.
IMF, Pakistan reach Staff-Level Agreement Final Bailout
Dawn
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with Pakistan on the final review of a $3 billion bailout, where the country will receive $1.1 billion after approval from the Fund’s Executive Board, the lender said on Wednesday.
The funds are the final tranche of a $3bn last-gasp rescue package Pakistan had secured last summer, which averted a sovereign debt default. Islamabad is also seeking another long-term bailout.
Pakistan, IDB finalise $200m loan agreement
Tribune
Pakistan and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) have finalised a $200 million loan agreement during a visit by an IDB delegation to Pakistan. The agreement documents were signed by the Economic Affairs Secretary and the IDB Director.
Iranian border guard killed near Afghanistan border
Fidel Rahmati
The Sistan and Baluchistan Border Guard Information Center has announced that an Iranian border guard has been killed in the Hirmand region of this province.
According to IRNA, the incident occurred on Sunday, March 17th, in the Hirmand region near the Afghanistan border by “unidentified individuals.”
The Sistan and Baluchistan Border Guard Information Center stated that the slain soldier was named Mohammad Javad Beyanati and was a border guard stationed at the station in Zabul.
Iran's Pharmaceutical Industry In ‘Crisis’
Iran International
Mahmoud Najafi Arab, the head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, has sounded the alarm over the dire state of Iran's pharmaceutical industry, declaring it engulfed in crisis.
He attributed the situation to the Central Bank's contract system in the field of medicine currency supply, exacerbating capital shortages across various industries, including pharmaceuticals.
Arab highlighted the plight of numerous pharmaceutical companies struggling to meet their financial obligations, particularly in paying employees' salaries and end-of-year bonuses.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul on "Face the Nation," March 24, 2024
CENTCOM Commander, General Kurilla, just testified this week before Congress that within six months that ISIS-K would have the capability to operate outside of Afghanistan to do external operations. And it only took six days before they hit Moscow- or outside of Moscow. And I think Europe is of concern. And it's sort of like we're going back to that old playbook where history repeats itself. And that's why the fall of Afghanistan, the way it was done, and the way we left it with no ISR capability- that intelligence surveillance reconnaissance- puts us in danger, where this is a new battleground training ground for ISIS.
THE WEEKLY WTF
Taliban announced new banknotes printed in Europe, signed by Hidayatullah Badri, who is on the sanctions list!
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 71.29 AFN (as of 24 March 2024)