International Meetings and Conferences
UNAMA Mandate Renewed – On Friday, March 15, the UNAMA mandate was renewed for 12 months. Several countries and representatives spoke on the importance of UNAMA in building stability and fostering a more inclusive government in Afghanistan. Nasir Ahmad Andisha, Afghanistan’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN, criticized UNAMA's mission as ineffective, particularly in defending human rights against the Taliban. He proposed relocating UNAMA's political office outside Afghanistan to better engage with civil society and opposition forces and emphasized the importance of addressing political, human rights, and humanitarian issues
EU Resolution – The European Parliament adopted a resolution on Afghanistan, emphasizing human rights. The resolution condemned public executions, gender violence, gender apartheid, and the lack of judicial independence, calling for the protection of women's rights and the abolition of capital punishment. It supports ICC investigations and enforces strict EU conditions for engaging with the Taliban. The resolution passed with broad support.
EU Representative Statement on Afghanistan – Josep Borrell condemned the Taliban's treatment of Afghan women as 'global gender apartheid' during a UN-EU meeting. He called for increased pressure on the Taliban and adherence to UNSC Resolution 2721 for Afghanistan's reintegration. Highlighting the EU's challenge in balancing security and human rights, Borrell emphasized the importance of addressing the humanitarian and refugee crises to avoid a situation akin to Syria's. He stated that normalizing relations with the Taliban should be contingent upon Afghanistan’s fulfillment of international commitments, conditions the ruling regime appears unwilling and unable to meet.
Swedish Committee Halts Operations – The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan has ceased all operations in the country as of March 15, following a request from the Taliban and concerns over staff security. In its 40 years of operations, the committee's 6,000 employees have worked with developmental aids for vulnerable groups, including women, children, and individuals with disabilities.
Taliban Statement on WFP Aid – On Thursday, Abdul Bari Omari, head of the Taliban's National Food and Drug Administration requested that the World Food Program distribute food based on Taliban regulations. Omari noted that his agency has regulations and stated that food shortages are related to poor quality of food assistance. Prior to the statement by Omari, the World Food Program has warned of a lack of funding necessary to provide assistance to Afghanistan and has indicated that a reduction in food aid is likely and that it would be disastrous, particularly for Afghan women.
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
Abuse at Madrassas – Male students aged 10 to 17 at Taliban-run religious schools in Afghanistan reported experiencing sexual and physical abuse, leading many to abandon their education. Victims described being coerced into sexual acts by teachers and subjected to corporal punishment, with authorities at the schools ignoring or dismissing their complaints. The abuse, which has contributed to a decline in male student attendance, is part of broader issues under Taliban rule, including severe educational and social restrictions. Find the full report here
Minister’s Private Prison – Sheikh Abdul Hakim Sharia, the Taliban's Minister of Justice, has reportedly established a personal prison within the ministry's premises. Notably, Haider Jan Naemzai, a former Wolesi Jirga member, has been detained there since yesterday on charges of land usurpation, as confirmed by the ministry's statement. Allegations suggest the existence of a private prison holding several high-profile individuals for similar reasons. Sheikh Sharia, a key ally of Mullah Hibatullah, served as Deputy Minister of Justice during the first Taliban era. The Taliban have issued a response stating that Sheikh Sharia is authorized to detain suspects related to land grabs for up to 10 days.
Statement by the Shia Counsel – Mohammad Akbari, deputy of the Afghan Shia Ulema Council, released a statement on the treatment of the Shia community. Mr. Akbari noted that the concerns of the Shia council have not been addressed and that restrictions, including banning the teaching of Jafari jurisprudence texts in schools and universities, canceling the personal status law for Shiites, and targeting of Shias, have continued under the Taliban.
Letter on Prayers from Badakhshan – The Taliban's Badakhshan governor has directed the local Hajj and Religious Affairs Directorate to identify and report to the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI) any prayer leaders conducting the Tarawih (Ramadan) prayers at eight rak'ats, a practice associated with Salafi Muslims. This is in contrast to the Hanafi School's standard of twenty rak'ats for Tarawih prayers.
Flogging in Paktika – on Thursday, one individual was flogged in Paktika province for theft.
Security and Conflict
AFF Announces Ramadan Pause – The AFF announced on Monday that they will pause operations as long as they are not attacked or provoked, starting from the beginning of Ramadan until the end of Eid.
CENTCOM statement on Terrorists in Afghanistan – US Central Command Chief Michael Erik Kurilla has criticized the Taliban's lack of interest in counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, which he believes could destabilize Central and South Asia. Despite the Taliban's claims of combating ISIS-K, their actions against other extremist groups remain limited, raising international and regional concerns about the potential resurgence of international terrorism originating from Afghanistan. The UN and Pakistan have particularly expressed their worries, with Pakistan demanding action against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a threat the Taliban largely ignores.
Taliban Commander killed in Badakhshan – On Saturday, the NRF killed a senior Taliban commander, Shukrullah, also known as Jundallah, in Pul-e-Jowz, Badakhshan. Reports indicate that Shukrullah was killed by an unknown gunman in retaliation for 'harassing and tormenting' residents of Baharak, Faizabad, and Jurm in Badakhshan.
Freedom of the Press
AFJC report – The Afghanistan Journalists Center (AFJC) annual report for the 1402 was released on MArch 17, National Journalists day. The report highlights escalating challenges for media freedom in Afghanistan, with increased pressures from Taliban directives. The report documents 139 rights violations, including threats and arrests, amid systematic suppression by Taliban officials. Despite the existence of Media Law, there's a critical need for actions to protect journalists, as efforts by the Ministry of Information and Culture fall short. The report calls for concrete measures to improve conditions and ensure journalists' rights.
Arrest of Religious leaders in Takhar – On Sunday, March 17, in Taloqan, Takhar province, Taliban forces detained Mawlawi Tawfiq, Mufti Baz Mohammad, and Mawlawi Bilal Ahmad for excluding leader Hibatullah Akhundzada from prayer sermons. This adds to the recent arrests of numerous Takhar scholars, who were later released following local elders' mediation.
Regional Developments
CSTO Plans to Strengthen Borders – The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), composed of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, plans to strengthen its border with Afghanistan amid growing security threats, particularly from Taliban-controlled areas. Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov announced the development of a program to reinforce the Tajikistan-Afghanistan borders following reports of Khorasan Province (ISKP) amassing up to 6,500 members, with 4,000 located along Tajikistan’s southern borders. The CSTO, including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is concerned about threats such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K, as terrorist activities increase, posing risks to regional stability. The Chief of the CSTO Joint Staff, Colonel General Anatoly Sidorov, stated, 'Moreover, the policy of oppressing ethnic and religious minorities adopted by the Taliban leadership, along with the lack of unity and growing discord among the Taliban movement, the deteriorating economic situation, and the mounting humanitarian problems, contribute to the destabilization of the situation in the region.
Regional Statements on Afghan Drug Trafficking – The head of Tajikistan's Drug Control Agency, Zafar Samad, reported significant drug smuggling from northern Afghanistan into Russia and the EU. Mr. Samad highlighted the increased drug discoveries in Tajikistan and the ongoing efforts to strengthen border controls. Eskandar Momeni, the Secretary-General of Iran's Anti-Drug Headquarters, noted a 20% increase in drug trafficking, particularly of methamphetamine, from Afghanistan into Iran.
Pakistani Ambassador Visit to Kandahar – During his visit to Kandahar province this week, Obaidullah Nizamani, Pakistan's ambassador to Afghanistan, met with Mullah Mohammad Shirin Akhund, the local governor. They discussed ways to enhance bilateral relations. Akhund congratulated Nizamani on the outcomes of Pakistan's recent elections. Nizamani plans to visit Pakistan soon to meet with the Foreign Minister and other officials.
Economic Meeting with Uzbekistan – On Tuesday, Mullah Baradar met with Bakhtiyor Saidov, the Uzbek Foreign Minister, in Kabul. A bilateral economic agreement on preferential trade and a similar agreement involving Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan were drafted, but the Uzbek government has yet to sign or respond. The Uzbek government has raised concerns in the past related to water rights on the Amu Darya and issues of border security and terrorism.
Travel and Weather
Torkham Requiring Visas – As of Monday, March 10, Torkham will require visas from all Afghan patients seeking treatment in Pakistan. Previously, a special commission assessed patients at the border to determine if they could be permitted to travel to Pakistan for medical treatment without a visa.
Flash Flooding continues – Over the past three weeks, Afghanistan has experienced severe weather conditions, resulting in at least 60 deaths and 23 injuries, as reported by the government's disaster ministry. The adverse weather has caused significant damage, destroying or damaging around 1,645 homes and killing nearly 178,000 livestock. Flash floods in Herat province this week have exacerbated conditions, particularly affecting areas previously damaged by earthquakes. Aid is expected to be provided to the affected areas starting Thursday. Pictures of the extent of the flooding may be found here. Additional heavy rains are predicted across Afghanistan in the coming week.
Accident on Herat-Kandahar Highway – 21 people were killed and 38 were injured in a traffic accident in the Yakhjal Gershak area of Helmand, where a bus and an oil tanker collided on the Herat-Kandahar highway.
NEXT WEEK
Ramadan – During Ramadan, police and security forces closely monitor individuals and tend to become more agitated. They pay extra attention to those who may not be following the fasting rules, women wearing clothes deemed un-Islamic, and young men appearing 'westernized' or not acting according to Taliban expectations. Community patience may also decrease towards those who do not seem to be fasting. It is advisable to dress modestly and blend in during Ramadan, especially for those who cannot fast due to health or other reasons.
Nowruz – Nowruz takes place this week, during Ramadan. Though the Taliban have yet to make a public statement on Nowruz celebrations, the holiday has historically been contentious, as it is celebrated by Persian-speaking minorities. The traditional celebrations, including travel to Mazar, games, and kite running, are likely to be watched and may be targeted by the Taliban or IS, who consider the holiday un-Islamic, particularly if celebrations occur during the day. Those celebrating Nowruz should do so with caution and remain aware of their surroundings.
Continued Flooding – More heavy rain is predicted this week across Afghanistan. Continued flash floods are likely, landslides and roof collapses are likely. Be aware of your surroundings, particularly near streams, rivers and areas that tend to flood.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Khazali at the UN – Ensieah Khazali, Iran’s Vice President for Women's Affairs, arrived in New York on Monday to attend the UN Commission on the Status of Women. Khazali accused Israel of the 'rape and murder of millions of women and children' and stated that women in Iran have experienced 'rapid progress' since the Islamic Revolution. These statements follow last week’s report on the death of Mahsa Amini and the subsequent crackdown and executions of protestors.
US Sanctions Waiver renewed – President Biden renewed a US sanctions waiver, enabling Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran and pay with hard currencies. Critics argue that this indirectly funds Iran's terrorist activities, despite the intended humanitarian use. The State Department asserts that the funds are designated for non-sanctionable goods only, aiming to aid Iraq's energy independence from Iran. However, skeptics contend that this still benefits the Iranian regime, especially as Biden's enforcement of sanctions has softened, allowing China to make significant oil purchases from Iran.
Iran-Russia Missile Threats – The G7 nations warned Iran that providing ballistic missiles to Russia for the Ukraine war could lead to significant new sanctions, including banning Iran Air from Europe. This aligns with U.S. concerns over Iran's aggressive actions and potential arms dealings with Moscow. Despite no confirmed missile transfers, negotiations between Iran and Russia have alarmed U.S. officials. Such sanctions could severely impact Iran, which is already accused of supporting militias and hacking U.S. infrastructure.
Iranian Rapper May Face Death Penalty – Imprisoned Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi faces new charges, including "armed and group rebellion against the regime," potentially leading to the death penalty. His legal representative argues there is no evidence for these charges. Despite a previous Supreme Court ruling capping charges at three, Salehi faces ten in a renewed indictment. Previously arrested in November 2022, he was briefly released in November 2023 before being re-arrested. His lyrics criticize Iran's government and societal issues.
PAKISTAN
US-Pakistan Meeting – During a meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, US Ambassador Donald Blome conveyed the continued US support for Pakistan's economic reforms through the IMF. The discussions covered bilateral relations, regional security, economic reforms, and the situations in Gaza and the Red Sea. The meeting is in line with ongoing IMF talks in Pakistan and the upcoming US congressional hearings on Pakistan's democracy.
Militant Attacks – Security concerns remain significant, with recent attacks in Sibi and Bajaur resulting in the deaths of a DSP (Deputy Superintendent of Police) and a tribal elder, as well as three militants in Lakki Marwat. On Sunday, in the Khaddi area of North Waziristan, militants launched an attack by driving an explosives-laden vehicle into a military facility. This caused the structure's roof to collapse before the assailants breached the premises. Special operation group troops responded, neutralizing the assailants. Over 12 soldiers were injured, with severe cases being airlifted. The attack resulted in 7 fatalities, including 2 officers.
Pakistan Allegations of TTP in Afghanistan – Asif Durani, Pakistan's special representative for Afghanistan, alleges that there is evidence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) receiving money from India via Afghanistan. He went on to state that there are 5,000 to 6,000 members of the TTP in Afghanistan and estimated the total number of TTP members plus their families to be around 70,000 on Afghan soil. Pakistan has stated that harboring the TTP is a red line in its relations with Afghanistan.
IMF Directed Ordinances – In the National Assembly, there was significant uproar as the government presented seven IMF-directed ordinances for extension. This faced strong protests from opposition parties PTI and JUI-F, and initially even from ally PPP. Accusations of betrayal were exchanged between members, especially after the PPP voted in favor of the ordinances despite initial opposition. PTI’s Omar Ayub stated, “These ordinances are meant to sell Pakistan.” Pakistan plans to request a larger, extended IMF bailout over $8 billion next month, aiming for augmentation through climate finance during the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., April 15-20.
Rupee Valuation – The Pakistani rupee has reached a five-month high against the dollar, influenced by the formation of a new government and positive signals from the IMF. This improvement reflects increased exchange rate stability and growing market confidence. The announcements and strategic economic policies of the new finance minister, including reductions in imports to manage the twin deficits, have contributed to this trend. However, despite the economic challenges and the need for IMF support, there is optimism for continued stabilization and growth.
Opposition to India’s Citizenship Law – Pakistan has criticized India's Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), claiming that it discriminates against Muslims by offering citizenship based on religion, thereby violating secular principles. The Pakistani Foreign Office has highlighted that this law reflects false assumptions about minority persecution in neighboring Muslim countries. Critics argue that the CAA excludes Muslims and fails to address other persecuted groups, raising concerns about its potential use alongside a national registry against India's Muslim population.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Shifting Allegiances: Pakistan Confronts the Afghan Taliban
By TAD
Asif Durani, Pakistan's designated envoy to Afghanistan, has brought forth serious allegations implicating the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). He alleges concrete evidence exists showing the TTP receiving financial aid from India, channeled through Afghanistan. Durani alleges that approximately 5,000 to 6,000 TTP militants are living in Afghanistan, with the overall count, including families, nearing 70,000. Pakistan views the hosting of TTP militants by Afghanistan as a clear breach of their bilateral relations, setting a definitive red line.
These claims signify a dramatic shift from traditional diplomatic stances, marking the first occasion a Pakistani official has accused the Taliban of operating under Indian influence to the detriment of Pakistan. This comes after a history of suspicions cast across different Afghan leaderships, with the recent resurgence of the Taliban sparking initial Pakistani hopes of leveraging influence to suppress anti-Pakistani factions. Yet, the reality has starkly diverged, underlining a profound misalignment between Taliban actions and Pakistani expectations.
The allegations underscore a pivot towards a more adversarial Pakistani approach to Afghanistan, echoing prior strategies fostering regional instability. This alteration in relations arises amidst the Taliban's declaration of sovereignty and defiance against Pakistan's calls to counter the TTP menace. Despite their resistance, the Taliban are cognizant of the dire repercussions stemming from a total disintegration of ties with Pakistan, especially considering their dependency on Pakistani ports for international commerce.
Amid rising tensions, the Taliban are diversifying their diplomatic endeavors, reaching out to Iran, and Central Asian nations. Conversely, Pakistan's influence on the Taliban, rooted in historical connections with diverse Afghan factions, invites scrutiny. Post the 2021 collapse of the Afghan Republic, numerous faction leaders found sanctuary in Pakistan, suggesting a potential Pakistani tactic to leverage these alliances against the Taliban. In this geopolitical chess game, a fragmented Afghanistan might align more with Pakistani strategic interests than a consolidated government harboring anti-Pakistan sentiment.
The evolving dynamics hint at a possible strategic redirection in Pakistani policies towards the Taliban, amid their growing political seclusion and lack of significant global or regional backing. Pakistan seems set to leverage this isolation, striving to push the Taliban into deeper segregation. Though definitive conclusions remain premature, the unfolding scenario paints a picture where the Taliban could be cornered into choosing between ceasing support for anti-Pakistan elements or facing formidable military challenges to their governance.
AFGHAN NEWS
Taliban’s Oppression in Andarab Region Persists: Forced Displacement, Land Destruction Continues
8 am
Taliban, facing armed resistance in Panjshir and Andarab after Seizing control of Afghanistan, has been accused of widespread harassment and persecution of residents in these regions over the past nearly three years. According to sources, the group has detained and tortured hundreds of young men and adults from Panjshir province and Andarab regions. Sources in these areas claim that Taliban fighters are establishing bases among people’s farmlands and homes. Residents allege that the Taliban forcibly displaced people and relocated their families instead.
Some residents of Andarab in Baghlan province report that alongside establishing military bases among their farmlands, the Taliban also forcibly relocate families living near these bases. According to these residents, the Taliban have constructed roads over people’s lands to connect their bases built on hilltops.
Afghanistan’s currency declines against major currencies, exports drop in January: World Bank
Amu TV
The World Bank reported a significant decline in Afghanistan’s exports and a depreciation of the Afghan currency against major currencies in January.
According to its Afghanistan Economic Monitor report, the country is experiencing deflation amid weak economic activity.
In 2023, the Afghan currency appreciated by 27 percent against the US dollar, supported by about $1.8 billion in UN cash shipments and an estimated $2 billion in remittances. These inflows compensated for a roughly $3.5 billion trade deficit, resulting in a surplus in the local forex market and a strengthening of the Afghan Afghani (AFN). However, at the start of 2024, the AFN depreciated against all major currencies.
Resistance to Taliban is Weak and Disorganized, US Intelligence Community Says
Besmellah Zahidi
The US Intelligence Community says that the near-term prospect of significant resistance against the Taliban remains low, with many Afghans weary of war and fearful of potential Taliban retaliation.
In its annual assessment published on Monday, March 11, the collective of US intelligence agencies said that the Taliban has strengthened its power in Afghanistan by suppressing opposition groups and bolstering its international engagement.
Kartos
Marziya* has defied the odds for most of her life.
Married off as a teenager to a man she didn’t know, attending class with a new baby in her arms, abused by her husband’s family, becoming the breadwinner while birthing and raising six children, joining the Afghan police force, and working in the elite unit. She knows what it means to face challenges.
REGIONAL NEWS
Al-Qaida’s Yemen branch says leader Khalid al-Batarfi dead in unclear circumstances
Jon Gambrell
The leader of Yemen's branch of al-Qaida is dead, the militant group announced late Sunday, without giving details.
Khalid al-Batarfi had a $5 million bounty on his head from the U.S. government over leading the group, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, through years that saw him imprisoned, freed in a jailbreak, and governing forces in Yemen amid that country's grinding war.
Biometric measures necessary to enhance security, says special envoy
Dawn
Pakistan’s Special Representative on Afghanistan Ambassador Asif Durrani advocated the necessity of implementing biometric measures for the cross-border movement of people to bolster security and minimise threats from non-state actors.
He said this during his interaction with Afghan religious, tribal and business stakeholders on Saturday, says a press release.
Anti-terror agency links Bengaluru cafe blast to Islamic State module
Jitendra Bahadur Singh
As the National Investigation Agency (NIA) is probing the Bengaluru Rameshwaram Cafe blast case, sources from the agency have informed India Today TV that the Shivamogga ISIS module, active in Karnataka and South India for the past five years, might be a key link in the case. This module has allegedly targeted and radicalised youth in the region.
Ten people were injured in the low-intensity blast at the popular cafe in Bengaluru on March 1. The explosion was carried out by triggering an IED bomb using a timer.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
Advocates fear special US visas for Afghans could run out despite dangers
Joseph Stepansky
As the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan in 2021, millions of Afghans faced the prospect of life once more under Taliban rule.
For thousands among them, the danger was particularly acute: They had worked with the departing Americans and could be subject to Taliban reprisals as a result.
America Can’t Isolate the Taliban: Why Regional Powers Are Reopening Ties With Afghanistan
Asfandyar Mir and Andrew Watkins
At a ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in late January, Chinese President Xi Jinping accepted the credentials of the Taliban’s newly appointed Afghan ambassador to China. Although the step did not amount to formal recognition of the Taliban, Xi’s upgrade of relations marks the most significant challenge to a United States-led consensus against normalization with the Afghan regime. “China believes that Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community,” a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry said at a press briefing after the event.
Afghans remain camped at São Paulo airport during Ramadan
Elaine Patricia Cruz
At least 60 Afghans, including children, were camped this Monday morning (Mar. 11) in Terminal 2 at Guarulhos International Airport, next to the Humanized Migrant Assistance Facility, stated the Afghan Refugee Rescue Organization. This number is relatively smaller compared to the situation experienced in previous years.
The Agência Brasil report visited the airport on the second day of Ramadan, the holy month for Muslims around the world, and documented the departure of some of these Afghans to a shelter. According to authorities in the city of Guarulhos, two women and four men left the airport to be sheltered at the Ebenezer Special Assistance Center (CAE), in São Paulo.
THE DAILY WTF
Afghan schools are set to reopen next week after Nowruz.
It has been 912 days since Afghan girls were allowed to go to school.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 71.41 AFN (as of 17 March 2024)