The Week of February 12-18
Last Week
International Conferences
Taliban Will Not Participate in Doha – Per the TAD prediction last week, the Taliban have opted not to participate in the Doha conference as their demands for participation were not met by the international community. Mabouba Seraj, Mitra Mehran, Shah Gul Rezaei, and Lotfollah Najafizadeh are participating in the conference on behalf of Afghanistan. The Doha meeting’s participants are expected to decide on a UN special envoy for Afghanistan and discuss the roadmap for the country’s political future. TAD will cover outcomes of the meeting next week.
UK Charge D’affaires meeting with Taliban – On Monday, Robert Dickerson, the UK Charge D’affaires for Afghanistan met with Mohammad Naseem Wardak, the head of the Taliban office in Qatar to discuss UNCS Resolution 2721, which urges the appointment of Special Envoy for Afghanistan with human rights, gender expertise, the Doha conference and other topics, including girls education.
Groups Speak Out Against Lack of Representation in Doha – Afghan Women's National Coalition members protest against the Taliban's participation in the upcoming UN meeting in Doha, demanding their referral to the ICC for war crimes. Fawzia Kofi, a former MP stated that the success of the Doha Conference is dependent on the inclusion of women and those politically opposed to the Taliban; without real representation no real progress can be made (Kofi) A total of 16 Afghan civil society and resistance groups released a joint statement on Thursday to condemn the UN’s invitation to the Taliban to participate in the Doha conference. The various groups have called for a more inclusive process to address issues of justice, gender and ethnic based violence and discrimination and ongoing conflict in Afghanistan.
Azerbaijan Opens Embassy in Kabul – On Thursday, Azerbaijan Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ilham Mohammadov presented an official letter to Amir Khan Motaghi, making Azerbaijan the first country to send an Ambassador level diplomat to Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover.
Munich Security Conference Afghanistan Discussion – At the Munich Security Conference 2024, foreign ministers from twelve countries highlighted severe human rights violations against Afghan women and girls. They urgently demanded the cessation of gender persecution by Afghanistan's de facto authorities, condemning actions potentially constituting crimes against humanity. The ministers stressed the dire situation where Taliban policies severely restrict women's freedoms, calling for international action to ensure adherence to human rights standards. See the full Statement.
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
Report of Sexual Assault – In the last two and a half years under Taliban rule, over 88,000 cases of sexual abuse against women have been recorded in Afghanistan, according to Afghan civil society and human rights activists and based on UN interviews with 2.9 million Afghans.the report also documents 14,812 cases of child sexual abuse and highlights a concerning number of disappearances of civilian men and women, with at least 70,305 incidents reported. Reports include women being taken into slavery or moved to unknown locations, and civilian men targeted by the Taliban. The data provided matches other reports of sexual violence, violence against children and forced dissappearances under the Taliban.
Killing of ANSF – This week there were reports of several former ANSF killed. On Wednesday, Hossein Hosseini was killed in the west of Kabul. Two former police officers Reza Hekmatyar and Reza Mujahidzai were detained in Jalrez district of Maidan Wardak on February 9 and have yet to be released.
‘Bad Hijab’ Arrests Continue – Reports of the arrest of four women in Kunduz on Monday and Tuesday have emerged. The reports note that the arrests took place near the Kunduz hospital for allegations of ‘bad hijab’.
Public Lashings in Bamiyan and Maidan Wardak – 13 individuals, including 5 women, were publicly flogged before being jailed on Wednesday. The individuals were convicted of various crimes from carjacking to running away from home. Another individual was subjected to 20 following a 10 month imprisonment for charges of adultery in Wardak on Saturday.
Discrimination in Takhar – Allegations of anti-Persian sentiment at Takhar University by the Taliban have emerged, focusing on the exclusion of non-Pashtun employees. Documents reveal directives against Persians and the replacement of approximately 17 staff members with Taliban affiliates. The university's Taliban-appointed head, Kamaluddin Munib, has been accused of fostering ethnic and linguistic divisions, mandating the use of Pashto over Persian and demoting employees based on ethnicity.
Freedom of Press
Continuing Detentions of Reporters – Saifullah Karimi, the Pajhwok reported who was detained on February 9 in Samangan by the Taliban, was released on February 11. On Saturday, Editor in chief Mansoor Nikmal disappeared after being summoned by the Taliban's Ministry of Vice and Virtue. Khaama press has been covering the ‘bad hijab’ arrests by the Taliban over the past several weeks. It is reported that Mr. Nikmal is being detained for interviewing a woman who, according to the Taliban, had ‘bad hijab’ during the interview. Mr. Nikmal was released on Sunday.
Kandahar Governor Prohibit Pictures – A letter from the governor of Kandahar has been widely circulated and apparently confirmed banning pictures and videos taken by government officials and military personnel in official or unofficial meetings. It appears that the letter may be at least in part a security precaution to prevent identifying government officials and installations.
Security and Conflict
Prisoner Swap – Muhammad Rahim Haqmal Afghani, aid to Osama bin Laden and and former Guantanomo bay prisoner was released from house arrest in Oman and returned to Kabul on Monday as part of a prisoner swap. Haqmal was welcomed by the Taliban at the Kabul airport.
Talib Murders Wife in Herat – In Herat, a young woman was hanged by a Taliban member following a forced marriage. The murder occurred on a Monday morning, and the victim was previously employed by the former government. The incident, discovered as the perpetrator attempted burial, took place in Herat's 14th district.
House to House Searches Continue – Following the relatively volatile past few weeks in Kabul and in the leadup to Doha, searches continued this week, likely as a preventative measure against attacks and protests in Kabul this week. House to house searches were carried out in several areas of Kabul.
Travel and Weather
Torkham Closed – On Sunday, Torkham crossing was closed due to heavy snow.
Ghor-Kabul Highway Blocked – On Sunday, it was announced that the Ghor-Kabul highway was blocked due to heavy snowfall. Heavy rain and snow fell through much of Afghanistan beginning on Saturday, with similar weather predicted to continue until Monday. Those traveling should be aware of road closures, blocks and flooding over the next several days.
Earthquake in Mazar – 5.0 earthquake hit Mazar Sunday at 3:52 pm., amid heavy rain and snowfall. Little is known about damage or casualties at this time.
Boat carrying Afghans Capsizes in Panama – In Panama City, a migrant boat capsized off the Caribbean coast, killing at least five and leaving one missing. The vessel, carrying 27 mostly Afghan migrants, overturned near the Guna Yala Indigenous area. The incident highlights the increasing risks migrants face, including those opting for maritime routes to avoid the perilous Darien Gap crossing.
NEXT WEEK
Pakistan
The deadline for forming a new government in Pakistan is by the end of February, with critical talks scheduled for Monday, February 19. During this period of intensified political negotiations, residents are advised to limit unnecessary movements and avoid large gatherings. Expect potential movement restrictions and disruptions to communication services. Stay vigilant and updated on developments.
Afghanistan
Snow and rain are predicted to continue through Monday. Travel may be impacted and roads may be closed. Avalanches have been noted in Badakhshan. Those traveling should be aware of conditions and expect delays.
Expect a continued increase on checkpoints and house to house searches are likely to continue as the Taliban are concerned about continued attacks on checkpoints. Targeted attacks likely to continue over the next week.
In anticipation of Ramadan, be aware that ISKP movements are becoming more likely. Areas with ethnic and religious minorities may be scouted for attacks. Taliban forces are likely to anticipate this and increase restrictions and checks.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Iran-Afghanistan Border Issues – Kiumars Heidari, Iranian ground forces commander, insists on implementing border closures despite Taliban objections, arguing that every country has the right to secure its borders without external interference. The Taliban claim Afghanistan poses no threat and criticizes the necessity of Iran's unilateral actions, advocating for bilateral agreement. Despite historical clashes with Taliban forces, Iran proceeds with a significant national border project to enhance security.
Khamenei (Iran’s supreme leader) Social Media Ban – Meta banned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's social media accounts for violating policies and praising Hamas, amid broader social media restrictions in Iran.
Pipeline Explosions — Two explosions occurred on gas pipelines in Iran due to what an official described as "terrorism and sabotage." The blasts happened on a primary gas route from Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province to the Caspian Sea and in the southern province of Fars. There were no immediate details on the perpetrators. Iran often attributes such sabotage to Israeli agents.
PAKISTAN
Political Coalitions and Government Formation – Reports from Pakistan indicate intensive consultations among party leaders and elected representatives are ongoing, with Monday, February 19, predicted to be crucial for the country's politics. Meetings are scheduled among representatives from various parties including PML-N, PPP, PML-Q, MQM, and PTI. Ishaq Dar, leader of PML-N, confirmed plans for discussions aimed at forming a government. Meanwhile, Qamar Zaman Kaira of PPP denied plans to join the federal cabinet, stating decisions will be made after a coordination committee meeting. PTI urged its independent representatives to adhere to party regulations, particularly regarding decisions on joining any political party in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly, where PTI, under Imran Khan's leadership, has secured a significant majority from the February 8 general elections. According to Pakistan's constitution, the new government must be formed by the end of the month (February 29).
Election Controversy – A significant development was an admission by a Pakistani official regarding involvement in rigging election results. The election commission announced an inquiry after this revelation, sparking political unrest and discussions about the integrity of the electoral process in Pakistan.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS – TAD
The Taliban's strategy, marked by a divide and conquer approach towards regional and international relations, reflects their intent to assert autonomy and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape on their terms. Their conspicuous absence from the Doha meeting underscores a broader tactic aimed at sidestepping global scrutiny and managing Afghanistan's narrative independently, particularly in areas of human rights and governance.
In the lead-up to the Doha meeting, the Taliban engaged in intensified regional diplomacy, inviting international envoys to Kabul in a clear move to preempt the Doha meeting's agenda. This maneuver was designed to assert their authority and challenge the conventional international approach to Afghan governance, showcasing a preference for bilateral and behind-the-scenes deal-making over multilateral engagements subject to public scrutiny.
The shifting geopolitical dynamics, notably after the US's withdrawal, have seen Iran, Russia, China, and Pakistan re-calibrating their strategies to counteract Western democratic norms and undermine UN influence. In this reconfigured landscape, Iran's push for a Regional Contact Group, although discreetly dismissed by the Taliban, signals Tehran's ambition to cement itself as a new regional power broker, potentially displacing Pakistan amidst its diminishing influence. This initiative exemplifies Iran's strategic positioning, balancing its historical and sectarian tensions with the Taliban against the imperative to secure its interests.
Iran's diplomatic overtures towards the Taliban, aimed at countering ISIS and ensuring compliance with its regional interests, underscore a pragmatic tolerance of Taliban rule. This stance is driven by Iran's necessity to avoid additional conflict, especially given its ongoing engagements on its western and southern fronts, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. By avoiding a new front in the east, Iran is navigating a delicate balance between opposing the Taliban's Sunni leadership and mitigating broader regional threats.
Pakistan's nuanced role and the evolving Iran-Russia versus Pakistan-China blocs further complicate the regional equation, highlighting the intricate power plays at work. The Taliban's preference for discrete, track 2 and 3 type engagements over public, multilateral forums aligns with this complex backdrop, allowing them to dictate the pace and nature of their diplomatic interactions.
In conclusion, the Taliban's strategic priorities, combined with the emerging regional dynamics and Iran's calculated approach to managing its multi-front challenges, are reshaping Afghanistan's international standing and future. The divide and conquer strategy, the concept of a Regional Contact Group, and the preemptive moves against the Doha meeting encapsulate the ongoing transition in regional power structures and the nuanced dance of diplomacy and power politics defining the current era.
AFGHAN NEWS
The plight of women facing Taliban courts
Mina Yousefzai
A small room with only a toilet in a yard in one of the poorest neighbourhoods in Kabul. This is the only temporary shelter that Asiyah and her daughter have available. Asiyah is a middle-aged single mother who lost her husband years ago. Her two young sons were killed. Her young daughter is the only person Asiyah has left in the world. Asiyah recently lost the house her husband legally gave her because of a court decision by the Taliban-controlled court.
Decade-Old Mass Grave Unearthed in Eastern Afghanistan
Besmellah Zahidi
Taliban authorities say they have discovered a mass grave in Afghanistan’s eastern Khost province containing around 100 bodies. The site is believed to be 45 years old, dating back to the Soviet occupation.
Taliban Minister’s Nephew Implicated in Brutal Torture Leading to Death in Faryab Province
8 AM
Local sources reveal a disturbing incident in Faryab Province, where a man named Kamaluddin Qara reportedly lost his life under brutal torture orchestrated by “Omidullah Dayi Muawiya,” the director of Taliban intelligence in the Qarghan district and the nephew of the Taliban’s Minister of Agriculture, Mullah Ataullah Omari.
REGIONAL NEWS
Pakistan reacts to Stanikzai’s remarks on Durand Line
Ariana News
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry on Friday reacted to remarks by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, deputy foreign minister of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) for political affairs, on Durand Line, calling it “self-serving and fanciful.”
Recently, at the ceremony commemorating the anniversary of the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, Stanakzai said that half of Afghanistan is on the other side of the Durand Line and that this line was imposed on the people of Afghanistan by the British. He added that the Durand Line will never be recognized by Afghanistan.
Protests erupt in Pakistan as Imran Khan supporters clash with police
Pramod Thomas
In Lahore, supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) gathered outside the Lahore Press Club and the party’s Jail Road office on Saturday (17) to register their protest, the Dawn newspaper reported on Sunday (18).
Cleric Arrested In Iran's Holy City For Criticizing Supreme Leader
Iran International
A seminary teacher was arrested by IRGC intelligence officers on Saturday in the religious city of Qom for voicing criticism of the government and the country's Supreme Leader.
Last week, on the anniversary of the Iranian revolution, Mohammad-Taghi Akbarnejad said, "This day symbolizes the negation of freedom and republicanism." He also recalled Ayatollah Khamenei's pre-revolution promise of granting people the freedom to criticize leaders.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
World Bank endorses new Afghanistan approach which could unlock $300 mn
France24
The World Bank's executive board endorsed a new approach to its relationship with the people of Afghanistan Thursday under which new funds of around $300 million could be made available, outside the control of the Taliban authorities.
Situation of Afghan women – Summary report of country-wide women’s consultations
UNAMA
Women requested the international community to not recognize the Taliban unless they reverse restrictions on women and girls. Women warned that the Taliban’s track record on women’s rights showed that they cannot be trusted to improve the current situation. They viewed recognition before tangible progress on women’s rights as the worst case scenario.
Opinion: Is the global community about to betray Afghanistan again?
Ahmad Wali Massoud
For the past two and a half years, Afghanistan has endured the absence of legitimate governance, the rule of law, and has suffered from severe human rights abuses, some unparalleled in human history. Gender apartheid has been imposed on the entire female population of the country, and national, regional, and international terrorist groups have come to control a geographical area of 650,000 km², which is bigger than France.
THE WEEKLY WTF
Kim Jong Un's 'Infidel' Hairstyle A Fashion Sin Under New Taliban Rules
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (left to right), Taliban official Azizul Rahman Mohajer, and American actor Leonardo DiCaprio -- Afghan men need to know which one they should style themselves after.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 73.78 AFN (as of 18 FEB 2024)