The Week of April 15-21
Security and Conflict
ISKP Attack – On Saturday, near Kot-e Sangi/Gulai Dovakhane at the border of PD 3 and PD 6 in Kabul, a passenger van was attacked and subsequently exploded as it passed a Taliban checkpoint. The attack resulted in a large explosion, killing both passengers and Taliban soldiers. Khalid Zadran, the spokesperson for the Kabul Security Department, reported one fatality and three injuries. ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that the targeted passengers were Hazara Shias.
Taliban Advisor Killed in Quetta – Taliban-affiliated sources reported that Mohammad Omar Jan Akhundzada, a senior advisor to the Taliban's supreme leader and a teacher at the Kandahar Jihadi Madrassa, was assassinated by unknown gunmen in Quetta, Balochistan, on April 18, 2024. Reports indicate that the ISKP group is suspected of being behind the attack. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid condemned the assassination, calling it a 'crime of the enemies of Islam.' Akhundzada is scheduled to be buried in Zabul.
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
Flogging in Zabul – A man was publicly beaten in the Shahjoy district of Zabul on Tuesday, following allegations of an extramarital affair.
Taliban Letter on Girls’ Education – A circulated Taliban letter is requiring founders of educational centers to sign a commitment letter that adheres to their rules. This includes a prohibition on educating girls above the 7th grade unless they are taught by women. The tone of the letter is notably strict and admonitory, reflecting the stringent enforcement of these guidelines.
ANSF Arrest – Isa Khan and his son Najibullah were arrested by the Taliban on Saturday at their home in Khair Khaneh on allegations of association Afghanistan Green Trend (AGT), led by former Vice President Amrullah Saleh. Isa Khan is a former employee of the ANSF.
Internal Politics
Message to officials in Doha – Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, the leader of the Taliban, has issued directives to representatives in the Taliban's political office in Doha and other officials, instructing them to avoid independent and secretive meetings with foreign entities. This directive emerged from a meeting in Kandahar, which focused on maintaining unity within the group. Key decisions include prohibiting the Doha office from conducting meetings without prior approval and mandating that officials pre-report their travel and meeting plans. These measures aim to ensure compliance and protect against potential internal divisions and external influences.
Afghan Green Trend Document Release – The AGT has publicly disclosed the names, positions, and contact information of 49 senior officials from the Taliban's General Directorate of Intelligence, labeling them as 'masked terrorists.' The list features key figures such as Mawlawi Abdullah Ghaznavi and Dr. Bashir. AGT declared its intention to challenge the Taliban's practices and bolster resistance efforts. Additionally, the group released other sensitive government details, including information on defense and fiscal policies. To date, the Taliban has not commented on the leaked information.
International Developments
UNAMA Statement on Poverty – On Thursday, Indrika Ratwatte, Deputy of UNAMA and Coordinator of Humanitarian Aid, underscored the severe crisis in Afghanistan, reporting that approximately 15.8 million Afghans are facing food insecurity this year. He noted a decline in life expectancy and stated that 95% of Afghans feel they are suffering, attributing this to factors such as earthquakes and the influx of returning migrants. Ratwatte emphasized the need for international support and a commitment to human rights, highlighting the crucial role of women in aid distribution amid strict Taliban restrictions and rising unemployment.
Talibs Defecting to ISIS/ISKP – Recent reports suggest a significant number of defections from the Taliban, with many members, primarily from Maidan Wardak and other parts of Eastern Afghanistan, reportedly joining ISIS. This shift is largely attributed to efforts by a "purification commission" that reportedly targets and expels these factions, ostensibly to consolidate control by favoring members from Helmand and Kandahar. These defections highlight severe intelligence and governance vulnerabilities within the Taliban and underscore the growing influence of ISIS in the region due to these internal divisions.
Freedom of the Press
Two Television Channels Closed – Zabihullah Sadat and Hafizullah Barakzai, officials of the Taliban Media Commission, have suspended the broadcasts of Beria TV, owned by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and Noor TV, owned by Salahuddin Rabbani. They stated that these actions, aligned with the Taliban regime's policies, have resulted in a halt to the stations' activities. This suspension follows several weeks of escalating tension and conflict between Hekmatyar and the Taliban.
Hizb ut Tahrir – Hizb ut Tahrir reported that their spokesperson for Afghanistan, Saifullah Mustanir, and several members were detained by the Taliban following their participation in a Kabul gathering titled 'Khilafah; The Political Legacy of the Prophethood.' The gathering was one of many global commemorations marking 103 years since the collapse of the Khilafah. Despite having banned all political parties, the Taliban did not provide any comments on the detentions.
Regional Developments
Torkham Requiring Visas – Pakistan has reinstated border restrictions at the Torkham crossing, prohibiting Afghan patients who lack passports and visas from entering for medical treatment. Sediqullah Quareshi, the Taliban's head of Information and Culture in Nangarhar, reported that Pakistani authorities started enforcing this policy as of Monday evening.
Taliban Officials invited to Pakistan – Pakistan's Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, extended an invitation to his Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to visit Islamabad, underscoring continued dialogue despite Islamabad's non-recognition of the Taliban government. Relations remain strained, with Pakistan criticizing the Taliban for inadequate control over insurgent activities and the Taliban accusing Pakistan of deflecting its own security failures.
Pakistan Deportation – The Pakistani government has announced that migrants who do not leave voluntarily by April 15 will be subject to forcible deportation. The government aims to repatriate about one million individuals, targeting those including ACC residency cardholders. Between April 4 and 14, approximately 8,000 Afghans were deported, and an additional 837 were deported on April 18 and 19, via the Torkham and Spin Boldak borders. According to the Taliban, these returnees were directed to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration for assistance.
Iran Building Border Fences – Iranian military official Abdul Rahman Sasanian has announced the commencement of a significant border fencing project along Iran's border with Afghanistan, stretching from Dogharun to Khaf. This security-enhancing initiative comes in response to criticisms of the Taliban and Pakistani forces, who have been accused of failing to manage border threats effectively, including allegations of collusion with terrorist groups.
NEXT WEEK
The latest phase of forced deportations, focusing on holders of Afghan Citizenship Cards, has started in Pakistan. While the Pakistani government claims to promote voluntary repatriation, Afghan nationals in Pakistan may undergo searches and could be forcibly repatriated. Increased caution is recommended in the weeks ahead.
The U.S. Consulate General in Karachi has issued a stern warning regarding a credible terrorist threat targeting high-end hotels in the city, leading to a prohibition on visits to these venues by U.S. government personnel. The advisory also encompasses other tourist-heavy areas including markets, shopping malls, and restaurants. The Consulate strongly advises individuals to steer clear of crowded places, keep a low profile, and exercise heightened vigilance in locations frequented by Western visitors.
Tensions are expected to remain high following last week's attack on Israel by Iran. Retaliatory attacks could pose risks to civilians in Iran and potentially disrupt regional flights with little advance warning. Individuals in the region should stay vigilant, continuously monitor the situation, and watch for updates on potential threats.
While Pakistan's deportation campaigns have received significant attention, it is important for Afghans in Iran to be aware that they, too, face large-scale deportations by Iranian officials.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Journalist Arrested – On Monday, in Tehran, 30-year-old journalist Dina Ghalibaf was arrested after she exposed sexual harassment by the morality police on social media. Ghalibaf, detained for not wearing a hijab, reported being assaulted at Saadeghieh metro station. Her arrest has heightened concerns for her safety.
PAKISTAN
Saudi Foreign Minister Trip – Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, along with other key ministers, arrived in Pakistan on Monday for a two-day visit. The goal is to hasten the implementation of an economic agreement with Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, following discussions in Mecca with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. These discussions focused on accelerating a $5 billion Saudi investment in Pakistan
Militants Killed in Waziristan – On Wednesday, an operation in the Ghulam Khan area of North Waziristan against militants attempting to infiltrate Pakistan resulted in at least seven deaths. The militants, identified as members of the Hafiz Gul Bahadar group, were killed during a prolonged encounter, with weapons and explosives recovered from them.
Customs Officials Killed – On Thursday, in the Dera Ismail Khan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, unidentified gunmen killed six Pakistan Customs officials and two children in Saggu. Additionally, one customs official was critically injured in the attack. In a separate incident on Saturday, three Pakistan Customs officials, including an inspector and a constable, were killed and two were injured in a shooting at the Yarak toll plaza in Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, by unidentified gunmen.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
World Bank Afghanistan Development Update April 2024
Summary:
Afghanistan's economy has faced severe challenges since the Taliban's return to power, marked by a significant contraction in real GDP by 26 percent over the past two years. The reduction in international aid, crucial for the country’s financial health, combined with internal disruptions such as the return of Afghan migrants and natural disasters like the 2023 Herat earthquake, have compounded economic difficulties. The earthquake alone negatively impacted GDP growth by an estimated 0.5-0.8 percent. With the lack of effective government policies to stimulate growth, the country is experiencing a deflationary spiral, with demand levels so low that prices continue to drop, further stagnating the economy.
The economic downturn is exacerbated by a steep decline in inflation, which fell to -9.7 percent year-over-year by February 2024. Both food and non-food sectors saw significant price drops, reflecting an excess of supply over demand. The deflationary trend, which began in April 2023, is driven by factors including the effects of an opium cultivation ban, which not only slashed farmers' incomes significantly but also led to job losses across the agricultural sector. This situation has pressured the already weak domestic food prices downwards, despite efforts to repurpose agricultural land for food production.
Monetary policy constraints have further deepened the deflationary environment. Sanctions, frozen assets, and disruptions in the banking sector have led to a contraction in the money supply by nearly 11 percent since late 2020, severely limiting economic activities. The lack of new currency issuance and difficulties in replacing worn-out banknotes have exacerbated these challenges, restricting consumer credit and spending. Additionally, the appreciation of the Afghani currency has made Afghan exports more expensive and less attractive on the global market, thereby harming the country’s trade balance and economic vitality.
Looking forward, the Afghan economy faces persistent threats of stagnation and increased poverty. The fiscal landscape, highlighted by a reliance on increased security spending at the expense of essential social services, suggests a continued strain on economic recovery efforts. Banking instabilities and a restrictive policy environment are likely to continue stifling business growth and financial intermediation. In the long term, potential economic revitalization could hinge on leveraging Afghanistan's agricultural and extractive industries, focusing on building a resilient, private-sector-driven economy that can sustain growth and improve living conditions for its citizens.
AFGHAN NEWS
Taliban crack down on Afghan TV channels for alleged rule breaches
Ayaz Gul
The Taliban government in Afghanistan has suspended the broadcast of two privately run local TV channels over alleged violations of official regulations and “Islamic values.”
Free media advocates Wednesday criticized the overnight suspension, calling it a violation of Afghanistan’s media-governing laws.
The Taliban-run information ministry’s Media Violations Commission said in a statement late Tuesday that a court will examine the activities of the two channels, Noor TV and Barya TV, and decide on their fate.
Taliban Prevents 4 Afghan Women From Travelling To Kosovo For Courage Award
Afghanistan International News
Participants at the International Women Peace Security Forum in Kosovo informed Afghanistan International that the Taliban prevented four women from traveling to Kosovo at Kabul Airport.
These women were scheduled to attend a conference to receive the Kosovo Courage Award.
On Monday, the Kosovo Medal of Courage was awarded to several Afghan activists.
A participant told Afghanistan International that Taliban officials thwarted the travel of the four invited women to Kosovo.
REGIONAL NEWS
As Pakistan begins second phase of deportation, Afghan women fear what lies ahead
Jamaima Afridi
Shakeeba, 23, has dreams as big as the challenges she faces. Currently enrolled in the first semester at the Department of Radiography at Khyber Medical College (KMC), Peshawar, her path has been marked by resilience and sacrifice.
Born to parents holding Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC), her roots lie in a journey across borders — a journey they embarked upon when she was a child. Despite the odds stacked against her, Shakeeba, whose family lives in Khurasan camp [a designated camp for Afghan refugees in Peshawar], has relentlessly pursued her education.
Reporters Without Borders
Three weeks after an Iranian journalist was stabbed on a London street by unknown assailants, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is releasing a report on the rise of transnational threats against Iranian journalists working in the United Kingdom. We call on Iran to stop all such attacks on the press, and on the UK government to take all necessary measures to ensure all journalists can operate freely and without fear.
This report, which documents a chilling and far-reaching threat to fundamental freedoms, should act as a wake-up call to UK authorities, and to democracies worldwide. Exiled Iranian journalists have shown remarkable courage and resilience in continuing to report in the face of such threats, but far more must be done to support and protect them. Iran must stop targeting journalists and, in the UK, the government, law enforcement agencies, social media platforms and employers must work together to do everything they can to ensure all journalists can do their jobs unimpeded.
5 Japanese nationals unhurt in suicide attack on vehicle in Karachi: police
Imtiaz Ali
Police said on Friday that five Japanese nationals were unhurt after their vehicle was targeted by a suicide bomber in Karachi’s Landhi area.
The suicide bomber was killed in the attack while an accomplice was gunned down by police, officials said. A private security guard accompanying the Japanese national died after succumbing to his injuries while two bystanders were also injured, officials added.
Deputy Inspector General (DIG) East Azfar Mahesar told Dawn.com that the incident took place near Murtaza Chowrangi in Landhi, adding that the five foreign nationals were traveling in a Hiace van.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
Holly Bancroft, Kate Devlin
A defiant House of Lords has refused to cave to ministers and sent Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda plan back to the Commons – with two key demands.
Peers voted on Wednesday night in favour of an amendment to the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill that would exempt Afghan heroes who supported UK troops overseas from being deported.
They also insisted on a monitoring committee to assess whether Rwanda is safe before the government sends asylum seekers there.
Weekly WTF
In a glaring example of "practice what you preach," Mawlawi Shakrullah Qureshi, the Taliban's anti-drug chief in Takhar province, was caught red-handed smuggling 13 bottles of "Tajik Vodka." His arrest by his own group's intelligence forces adds a rich layer of irony, given his official role in drug prohibition. This isn’t the first time a Taliban official has been caught in a compromising situation; it echoes the incident involving Alamgul Haqqani, the former passport chief, who was arrested at a booze-fueled dance party and released just hours later. The Taliban's response remains conspicuously absent, leaving one to ponder the consistency of their virtues and vices.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 71.83 AFN (as of 21 April 2024)
