Daily Evacuation Brief | September 15, 2023

Sep 15, 2023

TORKHAM IMPASSE MAY BE RESOLVED, GATE COULD OPEN TODAY – After over a week of insults and threats being traded between both Pakistan and the Taliban, it appears the crossing may be reopened today. Reports vary significantly as to what may have led to an agreement and both sides have claimed that the other side capitulated to demands made in the discussions. However, it seems that Pakistan may have gotten the better part of the deal by forcing the Foreign Minister of the Taliban to announce (again) that Afghan soil would not be used for attacks against Pakistan. A source in Rawalpindi could not provide many details about the deal that was reportedly struck but did say that Pakistan retained its rights to strike TTP militants should further incursions into Pakistani territory be made. Apparently, the Taliban acquiesced on this point but may have secured some kind of ‘notification of intent to take action’ commitment from Pakistan. What this may mean is unclear but Pakistan is rumored to have carried out two high-profile assassinations of noted TTP Commanders in recent days (1 in Afghanistan, 1 in Pakistan) that could have been sanctioned by Kabul. As has been seen in previous instances where the borders have been closed, there is often violence that has occurred in the aftermath of a reopening and this could take place at Torkham in the coming days. Afghans intending to pass through Torkham should it reopen should remain alert for another potential clash.
MANY AFGHANS DETAINED IN PAKISTAN RELEASED FROM DETENTION, HUNDREDS REMAIN IMPRISONED – Pakistan announced it had detained close to 500 Afghans over the past week in several operations that were primarily focused in Sindh Province. The announcement was significantly higher than previous estimates suggested and raised alarms among refugee-centric organizations in Pakistan. Many of those detained reputedly have legitimate visas and/or UNHCR refugee cards and were said to have been picked up illegally. Authorities in Pakistan said they had released 120 of those detained over the past five days and it seems they were not deported but were allowed to return to their accommodations freely. A small number of Afghans who were detained were implicated in street crimes, mainly the theft of cellular phones and a few mopeds. Pakistan intends to deport those involved in criminal activity. With the reputedly successful negotiations between Islamabad and Kabul over the border situation, the source in Rawalpindi believes that additional releases of Afghans will begin.
IRAN WARNS AFGHAN REFUGEES IN THE COUNTRY TO RESPECT HIJAB LAWS AND NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN ANY POTENTIAL DEMONSTRATIONS – Tomorrow will mark the one-year anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death in Iran and Iran has deployed thousands of security personnel to quickly put down any potential protests across the country. The regime warned foreigners residing in Iran who take part in demonstrations that they will face immediate prosecution and rapid deportation if they are caught participating in any instances of civil disobedience. As Afghans make up the largest bloc of refugees in the country, the risk they could incur the wrath of security forces is high. At-risk Afghans in Iran are encouraged to avoid any groups that begin forming.
MORE REPORTS OF INTERNATIONAL AID WORKERS ARRESTED IN GHOR – Offices of the International Assistance Mission in the Lal Wa Sarjangal District were reportedly raided by Taliban security personnel on 13 September and several men and women employed by the NGO were detained. There are discrepancies about the total number of those arrested and it is not currently clear how many are locally engaged staff (Afghans) and are foreign nationals. Most accounts agree that more than 10 people were arrested and taken to Kabul by agents from the local GDI office. There has been no word on what charges the personnel face and what may have prompted the Taliban's actions. Previous unconfirmed reporting suggested that other aid workers had been seized in Ghor and another Province in August and early September.

NEXT 24 HOURS

IRAN EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VIOLENCE – Few observers believe the anniversary of Amini’s death will pass peacefully and most anticipate violence to ensue tomorrow. We are confident at-risk Afghans in Iran are well aware of the threat and encourage those evacuation groups who have people in the country to make contact as sooon as possible and be warned that internet blackouts will almost certainly be instituted by the Iranian regime to disrupt protestors as well as attempt to control reports that are sent out of the country.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

The UK, France, and Germany to continue sanctions on Iran for the country’s continued work possible nuclear weapons and its development of a ballistic missile program. The sanctions would have expired in October.
The Foreign Minister has called the Australian charge d’affaires on the carpet to explain construed ‘interventionist remarks’ made by the Australian government as well as answering questions over the sanctioning of four Iranian citizens.
A US citizen from Virginia was convicted of illegally exporting construction equipment from the US to Iran which violated sanctions.

PAKISTAN

The rupee has continued to make gains against the dollar as financial analysts see a slight improvement in financial conditions over the remainder of the year.
The Pakistani government has accused Afghanistan of misusing the Transit Trade Agreement and has been purposefully misleading Pakistani customs officials about goods passing through both Torkham and Spin-Boldak gates.
Yasmin Rashid, a PTI leader who was implicated in fomenting the 9 May riots and PTI attacks against Army and government facilities was remanded for two weeks.

SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS

ISKP And Afghan Taliban

By Asad Ali - EurAsia Review

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is considered a threat to Afghan Taliban and their governance in Afghanistan. ISKP is an affiliate of the Islamic State (ISIS) that primarily operates in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Its presence and activities posed several challenges to Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban and ISKP have different ideological and strategic goals. While the Taliban seeks to establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan and has primarily focused on Afghanistan, ISKP aims to establish a global caliphate and has a more expansionist agenda. This ideological difference led to conflicts and competition for influence in the region.

AFGHAN NEWS

Markets Banned from Selling 'Tight, Thin, Short' Female Clothes in Bamiyan

By Sayed Amin Hamta - TOLO News

The Department of Vice and Virtue of Bamiyan in a statement asked the businessmen of the province not to import thin and tight-fitting clothes for women that are…

Monthly income of 78 per cent Afghans decreased to USD 59: Report

By ANI

The monthly income of 78 per cent of people in Afghanistan has decreased to USD 59, TOLO News reported citing a survey…

How is gender apartheid enforced in Afghanistan?

By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press

Gender apartheid in Afghanistan has been confirmed by human rights activists, United Nations experts, and internationally recognized…

REGIONAL NEWS

After over a week of closure, Torkham border 'reopens today'

By Qazi Falullah & Zarmeen Zehra - GEO TV

After a more than week’s closure since cross-border attacks in Chitral, the Torkham border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is likely to reopen today…