Daily Evacuation Brief | September 29, 2023

Sep 29, 2023

RUMORS OF POSSIBLE TTP EXODUS – Reports are beginning to surface on select analysis sites that a large TTP incursion of Pakistan may take place in the coming days. There are reports from two of the border Provinces in Afghanistan of trucks assembling in at least five different villages. A source in Kabul said that TTP leaders were being ‘encouraged’ to depart Afghanistan to lower tensions with Pakistan (and take the pressure off of Kabul). It was not clear who communicated this message to the TTP leadership in Afghanistan and this information has not been confirmed. Social media sites sympathetic to the TTP in Pakistan have been hinting that more TTP fighters would be returning to Pakistan over the last four days.
THE UNITED NATIONS CONCERNED ABOUT FORCED REPATRIATION PLANS IN PAKISTAN – An anonymous UN official spoke with journalists and said the body is deeply concerned about the recent remarks made by the caretaker PM in Islamabad about repatriating foreigners who are in the country illegally. Officials from the UN are in discussions with the government in Islamabad and are seeking to clarify the remarks. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees in Pakistan was quick to thank Pakistan for its generosity in dealing with multiple displacement events but also warned that it expected Pakistan to only repatriate those who agree to return voluntarily.
BRITISH TOURIST, MILES ROUTLEDGE, RESURFACES ON SOCIAL MEDIA – The young British student who made headlines for traveling to Afghanistan in 2022 is now reputedly passing updates through a friend on X (formerly Twitter). The most recent updates attributed to Routledge say he is living a luxurious life and is even considering investing in a gold mining operation. Routledge’s family told journalists they have no idea if their son is safe or is being treated well. They also said that Britain’s Foreign Office had not yet contacted them about their son.
AFGHAN EMBASSY IN INDIA MAY BE CLOSING – The diplomatic ruckus over who runs the Embassy of Afghanistan in India has heated up again. An email purportedly sent from the Embassy’s email servers was sent to the Government of India and announced the Embassy would be closing operations. Indian authorities were investigating the validity of the message and attempting to contact the Ambassador, Farid Mamundzay (who is in London). The Ambassador found himself embroiled in a coup when a deputy claimed that Kabul had put him in charge. Ambassador Mamundzay disputed the claims while he was in London and India appeared to have let the matter work itself out.

NEXT 24 HOURS

A THREAT OF A TTP INCURSION INTO KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA IS CIRCULATING – At this point, the threat is mainly rumor but seems logical considering recent statements made by officials in both Islamabad and Kabul. Estimates vary substantially over how many armed TTP fighters remain in Afghanistan. Early estimates (April 2022) put the figure at 5,000 while more recent estimates suggest it may be closer to 2,000. The tension along the border has been running high and Pakistan’s security forces are on high alert. Any incursion by the TTP in sizable numbers is likely to invite violence on a scale that has not been witnessed on this border since the Taliban took power in Kabul. Non-combatants could easily be caught up in the fighting. At-risk Afghans should avoid the border region if at all possible for the time being. If reports arrive that an action is underway, we will issue an ALERT message with as much information as we can gather. Otherwise, we are hoping this is only a rumor and doesn’t come to pass.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

A second fire broke out in a factory operated by the Ministry of Defense in Tehran. The fire was the second within the past week at the facility and some press outlets blamed foreign intelligence services for the fires. No injuries were reported.
Flight professionals say that aircraft GPS systems are being interfered with when planes fly near the Iran-Iraq border. Pilots report that their GPS systems are not just being jammed but are seeing their positions shift by 60 nautical miles.
In a sign that Iran has become emboldened on the global stage, Iran’s representative in Beirut implicated Iran in the 1980 bombings in Lebanon that killed hundreds of Lebanese, French, and Americans. The statement was pulled immediately after its release from the Iranian News Agency’s website.

PAKISTAN

An operation against a criminal group in Sindh on Thursday resulted in the deaths of 3 criminals and 9 other people sustained injuries. The group was thought to have formerly been associated with the Sindh Revolutionary Army but had turned to crime in recent years.
Banks will stay open on Saturday to facilitate last-minute payment of taxes for citizens. Many citizens utilize the over-the-counter method of paying their taxes at local bank offices.
2 former government leaders have been ordered to appear before the court handling the Toshakhana corruption case. Officers of the court have questions related to the involvement of the former President, Asif Ali Zardari, and former PM Yousuf Raza Gillani.

UZBEKISTAN

A massive explosion occurred near the Tashkent airport late on Thursday night. Lightning reportedly struck a warehouse and 1 person was killed while another 162 were reportedly injured.
Switzerland has indicted the daughter of former President Islam Karimov for taking bribes and running a criminal organization known as ‘The Office’.
Kazakhstan ratified a recent agreement with Uzbekistan to settle disputes over energy imports (petroleum and electricity).

SPOTLIGHT OPINION

Taliban leadership council. Photo Credit: Mehr News Agency

The Taliban’s Open-Ended Rule: Implications For Afghanistan And The World

By Shehla Rahim - EurAsia Review

Two years after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the militant group continues to assert its rule, citing Islamic law as the source of its legitimacy. In a recent interview, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid reaffirmed the group’s commitment to an indefinite rule based on Sharia, dismissing questions about restrictions on women’s rights and education. As Afghanistan grapples with the implications of Taliban rule, the international community faces the challenge of engaging with a regime that remains unyielding on key issues.

AFGHAN NEWS

A representative image of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. — AFP/File

200 TTP militants apprehended by Afghan Taliban: report

By The International News

In a positive development, the interim Afghan government has apprehended 200 suspected militants involved in cross-border attacks against Pakistan…

Calls mount for release of activist Zholia Parsi

By AMU TV

Women protestors have once again echoed their concerns about the arbitrary detention of women’s rights activists by the Taliban, saying that the international…

Retired Kabul University Professor Sells Clothes on Street to Survive

By Nasir Ahmad Salehi - TOLO News

A retired professor at Kabul University has been forced to sell second-hand goods at the side of the road in Herat city because his pension has…

REGIONAL NEWS

Can Pakistan’s Embattled Polity Act Against Militant Groups?

By Vaishali Basu Sharma - Modern Diplomacy

Despite claims by the Pakistani military that it has cleared the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region and other tribal areas in the northwest of…

Afghan national confesses to killing transgender friend

By Ahtesham Khan - The Express Tribune

In a startling turn of events, the perpetrator behind the tragic killing of the renowned transgender individual, Laiq, also known as Malala, has been revealed to be…

INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN

Afghan Journalist Wins Prestigious Emmy Award

By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press

The Emmy Award, often considered the equivalent of the Oscars for media, was awarded to Sanjar Sohail, the owner of the “Hasht-e-Subh Daily” newspaper from…