Daily Evacuation Brief | September 10, 2023

Sep 10, 2023

TORKHAM GATE STILL SHUT – While several meetings have taken place between Taliban and Pakistani officials have taken place, the crossing remained closed for a third day on Saturday. Afghan officials have called for the gate to be reopened immediately. Still, it appears that Pakistani officials are poised to use the impasse as a bargaining chip in its struggle to deny TTP terrorists safe havens in Afghanistan. The Taliban embassy in Islamabad has called on the government to reopen the gate and relieve the backlog of stranded commercial vehicles that are lined up on both sides of the border. However, Pakistani Foreign Ministry personnel have maintained that the gate’s reopening could hinge on a Taliban commitment to tackle the TTP problem that is undeniably hindering relations.
US RELEASES INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ABOUT AL QAEDA IN AFGHANISTAN – US officials maintain that al Qaeda is unlikely to regain a foothold in Afghanistan and said that Taliban counter-ISIS operations have seriously degraded its ability to project power. The assessment is being questioned in some intelligence circles as it is not clear how the US has collected information pertaining to either organization. Every neighboring state has continued to call on the international community to keep an eye on terror threats from Afghanistan. Both al Qaeda and ISIS-K have been mentioned in these calls by name. It is not clear how healthy US intelligence networks that may remain in Afghanistan actually are. Many of the former members of the intelligence apparatus from the previous regime have plainly stated they have not had contact with any of their former US colleagues, despite making repeated attempts to do so. The US administration has made it very clear that it wants to put Afghanistan in the rearview mirror and the US President has gone so far as to say that al Qaeda is no longer in Afghanistan. Skeptics say the intelligence community in the US could simply be following the administration’s lead and are ignoring the persistent claims by neighboring states, who likely have robust human intelligence assets in Afghanistan.
WHERE IS THE TALIBAN PRIME MINISTER? – Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, the acting Prime Minister for the Taliban has been missing after a two-month hiatus that began on 17 July. The Taliban say he is still unwell and cannot take meetings or fulfill his duties at this point. Analysts believe his absence is having a negative impact on both the domestic and foreign relations front.

NEXT 24 HOURS

TEMPERS AT TORKHAM COULD FLARE – As traders and non-combatants wait for the gate to reopen, it is possible that limited protests could take place. Interviews of many of the truck drivers on the Pakistan side of the border illustrated the frustrations they were facing. Some independent owners of commercial vehicles said that unless the crossing was opened by Monday, their cargo would spoil and they would lose profits they need to support their families. Many of those interviewed directed their anger at Pakistani officials. It is possible that protests could manifest if the situation remains deadlocked much longer. We do not envision a significant threat of violence but those at-risk Afghans who may be on either side of the border are advised to leave the area should crowds begin forming. Security forces on either side of the border have historically employed their weapons to deal with such threats.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

Officials have arrested 6 people in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Provinces for running five social media pages that posted information that was construed to be supportive of protestors.
Iran’s Embassy in Paris was targeted by an arsonist on Saturday evening when a fire was set at the rear of the Embassy. An investigation was launched to determine who may have been behind the incident. Iran’s facilities are expected to come under further attacks abroad as the anniversary of Mahsa Amini approaches.
Authorities in Sistan and Baluchistan Province say they have arrested members of a terrorist group operating in the Province. Critics of the regime say the arrests had nothing to do with terrorism but were an attempt to blame protestors for murders perpetrated by security personnel.

PAKISTAN

Former PM Khan’s legal defense team has called legislation that has been passed regarding military and intelligence agency’s jurisdictions, unconstitutional. The attorneys have asked the Supreme Court to suspend both laws.
A Pakistani soldier was killed in an exchange of fire that took place in North Waziristan on Saturday. It is not clear who the Pakistani military fired upon in the engagement.
10 relatives of the British father who is suspected of killing his ten-year-old daughter while living in Great Britain and who subsequently fled to Pakistan are being held by Pakistani Police in an effort to draw the man out of hiding.

SPOTLIGHT OPINION

ISKP Rejects Taliban’s Fatwa: A Dispute Over Religious Authority

By Khalid Iqbal - EurAsia Review

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) recently released a 59-page booklet in Pashto that has sent shockwaves through the region. In this document, the ISKP nullified the Fatwa issued by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) and even went a step further by inviting low-ranking Taliban members to join its ranks. This move signifies a complex and troubling development, shedding light on a dispute over religious authority, alliances, and the ongoing power struggle within Afghanistan’s turbulent landscape.

AFGHAN NEWS

Vetting of Disabled, Orphans, Widows 90% Completed

By Nazir Shinwari - TOLO News

The Ministry of Martyrs and Disabled reported that 90% of the work of rechecking the disabled, orphans, and widows in the nation has been…

Afghanistan loses millions as Torkham crossing remains closed for 3rd day

By Ariana News

Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI) says the closure of Torkham crossing into Pakistan has cost the economy millions of…

Remembering Ahmad Shah Massoud on his 22nd assassination anniversary

By AMU TV

Massoud became a household name in the early years of Jihad (war) against the former Soviet Union and Afghanistan’s Soviet-back government of the…

REGIONAL NEWS

Afghanistan Embassy calls on Pakistan to reopen Torkham crossing

By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press

During a meeting with Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, the Afghan envoy, Sardar Ahmed Shakib, emphasized the critical importance of reopening the…

Pakistan security forces can be seen deployed in Chitral along the Afghan border in this undated file photo. — Agencies

Pakistan assessing Chitral security post-terror attack: FM Jilani

By Marana Baabar - Geo News

Caretaker Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani has addressed the recent security situation in Chitral in the wake of a terrorist attack on September 6, originating from…