Daily Evacuation Brief | October 30, 2022
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LAST 24 HOURS
NEW US / TALIBAN NEGOTIATIONS CONFIRMED – Gulbuddin Hekmatyar confirmed on Friday that new talks were underway to resolve several outstanding issues between the Taliban and the US. He suggested the talks may lead to a deal that would replace the Doha agreement (although some tenets of the original agreement would remain). For Hekmatyar’s part, he expressed concerns that the talks would anger both China and Russia and that more transparency was required.
FRIDAY’S MOSQUE BOMBING IN WESTERN KABUL – Late reporting yesterday indicated that an explosion had occurred at a Mosque in the 5th Police District. This information has now been confirmed and traces of an improvised explosive device were discovered at the Sheikh Mohammad Rouhani Mosque that indicated it had been pre-placed and was likely triggered by a timer set to coincide with evening prayers. The blast injured at least 7 non-combatants but local eyewitnesses say the number was slightly higher. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack but the location and target choice suggest it was an ISIS-K operation.
COAL PRICES SET FOR WINTER – Concerns over inflation and commodity price fluctuations spurred the Taliban to form a committee under the Deputy Prime Minister to fix the price of coal for the coming winter. The committee announced that nearly a half million tons of coal had been stockpiled for Kabul alone and the price would be fixed at 9,000 afghanis per ton.
DAY 2 OF THE LONG MARCH – Imran Khan’s PTI party continued their progress towards Islamabad and stopped in Kamoke for the night. The former Prime Minister spoke on a couple of occasions and denounced the current government’s handling of the economy. The Pakistani Police are said to have warned hotels and guest houses in Islamabad about providing amenities for those participating in the protest. In dramatic fashion, Khan made remarks on Friday that seemingly threatened the country’s intelligence apparatus. The remarks followed on the heels of an unprecedented press conference where the head of the ISI criticized Khan and supported the constitution. The protest has been dedicated to a Pakistani journalist who was slain in Kenya (Arshad Sharif) and there have been accusations the death may have been political. Kenya has repeatedly asserted the death was a case of mistaken identity. No violence has yet been reported.
NEXT 24 HOURS
DAY 3 OF THE LONG MARCH – Day 3 of Imran Khan’s march on Islamabad could trigger a flashpoint between his supporters and Police. The rhetoric has steadily risen and supporters took to chanting aggressive anti-government slogans on Day 2 that invoked a slain journalist’s name and called for outright revolution. An independent source in Islamabad claimed that several ‘action teams’ had been sent ahead of the main party and Police have been routinely checking hostels and hotels for these small groups. Several crates of Molotov cocktails were said to have been recovered in one search but the information is vague and a clampdown on the media has kept many in the dark. While Khan has sworn to keep his supporters out of the ‘Red Zone’ (government quarter of Islamabad), many are concerned he will not be able to control the mob. At-risk Afghans should continue to maintain a low profile in Islamabad and the surrounding area. Some of the chants and slogans made by Khan’s supporters over the last day have been xenophobic in nature and could indicate that foreigners in Pakistan could be singled out for persecution. Police and security forces will be under tremendous stress and may react unpredictably. Communication disruptions should be expected.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP (new)
PAKISTAN
2 Pakistani Army soldiers were killed in a clash with militants in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Saturday.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan announced the formation of a committee to negotiate with the former Prime Minister’s political coalition (PTI). PTI leaders say the overture is not serious. The Long March enters its second day and no violence has yet been reported.
A Pakistani drone was fired upon as it approached BSF positions in Punjab.
IRAN
Revolutionary Guards leader issues threat to protestors and says ‘this is the last day of protests, sparking fears of more violence and a government crackdown.
TAJIKISTAN
Tajik and Kyrgyz officials met at the border to discuss continued efforts to de-escalate tensions.
UZBEKISTAN
The EU opened its new office in Tashkent, signaling an intent to form stronger ties with Central Asian countries.
Officials denied reports that Uzbekistan has been assembling drones on Iran’s behalf for sale to Russia.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Why China Fears the Emerging Turkic Alliance
By Amin E. Aghjeh - National Interest
Cooperation among the Turkic states has significantly risen in recent years. Established in 2009, the Cooperation Council of the Turkic Speaking States, also known as the Turkic Council, was transformed into the Organization of Turkic States in 2021 with the aim of generating “greater mutual support and solidarity in line with the needs of its members.” Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan are full members of the organization, while Hungary and Turkmenistan are observers (though Turkmenistan is set to join as a full member in the organization’s November 2022 summit in Samarkand.
AFGHAN NEWS
Mosque Explosion in Afghan Capital Injures 7 People
By Saqalain Eqbal - Khaama Press
The explosion took place in Kabul city’s 5th police district as worshippers gathered at the mosque for Friday prayer and dhikr…
Women Activists in Kabul Protest Closed Girls' Schools
By Waheeda Hasan - TOLO News
Following calls for the reopening of girls' schools above sixth grade, a group of women activists staged a protest near the…
Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Afghanistan: WHO Reports Over 450 Related-Deaths
By Saqalain Eqbal - Khaama Press
According to a report released on Friday, October 28, 378 people have died from measles in the past ten months, and 76 more have died this…
REGIONAL NEWS
Representatives of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan hold talks at border
By AKI Press
They discussed the issues to support stable socio-political situation in border areas, prevention of recurrence of conflicts, water supply…
Head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards warns this is 'last day' of protests
By Reuters
The head of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards warned protesters that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets, in a…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
US seeking new deal with IEA: Hekmatyar
By Ariana News
Limiting airstrikes, printing of new afghani banknotes and increasing cash aid are likely to be part of the agreement between the…
THE DAILY WTF
Taliban Removes Women’s Seat from Commission of Media Violations
By Saqalain Eqbal - Khaama Press
The Media Violations Commission does not require female representatives, according to Hayat Mahajar Farahi, the Acting Deputy…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 87.93 AFN (as of 30 OCT 2022)