Daily Evacuation Brief | October 26, 2022

Oct 26, 2022

LAST 24 HOURS

RUMORS CIRCULATE AMONG PRO-RESISTANCE GROUPS OF US ASSISTANCE TO THE TALIBAN IN BADAKHSHAN (DRONES/INTEL) – A select few pro-Resistance social media sites have begun sharing opinions that the US is somehow aiding the Taliban in the fight against the NRF with drones and intelligence. We have received confirmation from multiple sources in the USG that these claims are nonsense. Sources in a neighboring country who are monitoring the situation scoffed at the idea and suggested the stories are being planted by pro-Taliban or pro-ISIS-K supporters. One video that had been circulated on a pro-Resistance social media site that purportedly depicted US drones launching Hellfire missiles at an NRF base in Badakhshan actually had a date/time stamp of March 2009 on it. Our analysis indicates these claims are merely rumors and may have been started with malicious intent.
BADAKHSHAN FIGHTING BEGINS AGAIN – Shortly after the Taliban’s victory lap announcement about victory in Badakhshan was made, the NRF reportedly launched multiple assaults in three Districts of the Province. While reports are slow to filter out of the areas affected, fighting has been noted in Shif, Raghistan, and the Kafir Dareh regions with additional clashes in several unidentified locations. It appears the Taliban’s announcements may have been presumptive. Some sources opined the Taliban were quick to claim victory to calm China’s nerves.
FORMER AFGHAN COMMANDOS RECEIVING RECRUITMENT REQUESTS TO FIGHT FOR RUSSIA IN UKRAINE – While we had previously reported on this rumor, it now appears to be confirmed and is running in several regional news sites in Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It is not clear how many former Commandos have opted to take the offer and no reporting out of Ukraine has confirmed the participation of any Commandos on the Russian lines as of yet. However, with the tectonic pace of resettlement efforts and dire economic conditions facing Afghan refugee communities, it is believed that some may be forced to join up simply to feed their families.

NEXT 24 HOURS

TAKHAR, PANJSHIR, BAGHLAN, AND BADAKHSHAN LIKELY TO SEE FRESH FIGHTING – The Resistance Coalition is said to have planned multiple attacks and raids across the four Provinces for the next two weeks. The pressure taken off Panjshir over the last 3 weeks is said to have allowed for significant time to resupply and rearm the forces in the main bases there and some tactical prepositioning is thought to have been completed as of yesterday. We expect to see several light engagements at the outset which will develop into more moderate and heavy fighting scenarios in each of the different Provinces as the weekend approaches. Travel will be hazardous.

SPOTLIGHT OPINION

Let’s Not Kid Ourselves: Afghanistan’s Taliban Regime Will Not Become More Inclusive

By William Byrd - Lawfare

Ever since the August 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, there has been widespread, almost universal, rhetoric in international diplomatic circles—ranging from the United Nations to the European Union and the United States to Russia—that the Taliban need to form a more inclusive government, with varying definitions and views on what that means in concrete terms.