Daily Evacuation Brief | November 5, 2022

Nov 5, 2022

LAST 24 HOURS

INTERNATIONAL FUROR OVER ARRESTS OF GENDER ACTIVISTS – The United Nations, multiple Human Rights organizations, and a host of nation-states have condemned the arrests of 5 people (1 Woman, 4 Men) at a planned press conference where the announcement of a new Women’s movement was to be made. Taliban security forces disrupted the event before any announcement could be made and the 5 individuals were carted off to an undisclosed location. While most observers believe the people are unharmed, there is concern for their welfare. The Taliban continue to pound nails in the coffin that is international recognition with such moves.
PAKISTAN PROBLEMS AND THE LONG MARCH – Former Prime Minister Imran Khan met with his presumed assassin and reputedly asked who was behind the plot and why he had chosen to carry out the attempt. Khan went on to vow that he would be back on the streets with his supporters soon. He urged his supporters to continue the protest and wait for his recovery before marching to Islamabad. He has called for resignations from several senior leaders of the Pakistani government. For its part, the government rebuked Khan for claiming the attack was government-sponsored and vowed to launch a full investigation. It is not clear what the protestors have planned and some eyewitnesses say that many returned home but may return if summoned by the PTI leader.
PROTESTS IN IRAN TURN BLOODY AGAIN – Iranian security forces opened fire on protestors in the southern province of Sistan-Baluchestan. Several reports indicate that as many as 10 non-combatants were killed. Some were said to be children. Many Iran analysts believe the violence will escalate further.
TOMB OF AHMAD SHAH MASSOUD VANDALIZED AGAIN – Video evidence of the desecration of noted leader Massoud was provided to an Indian news site and the report says the Taliban are to blame. The repeated desecration of the martyred leader’s burial site continues to inflame residents of Panjshir.
BAD WEATHER CANCELS RESISTANCE OFFENSIVE ACTIONS – A source with the NRF claimed that unexpectedly bad weather had caused the cancellation of two offensive actions that had been planned in Takhar and Panjshir.

NEXT 24 HOURS

PAKISTAN LONG MARCH – For the time being, it appears the threats of violence have passed. Khan will need several days to recover and the March is said to be suspended until he is well enough to travel with his supporters again. Some rock-throwing was reported but it does not appear to be likely that violence between his supporters and the security forces will affect the capital.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

While the situation is confusing, the recent shootings indicate the security forces are on edge and will likely clash with protestors again over the weekend.
US President Biden made remarks about ‘freeing’ Iran that has stoked fears of possible foreign intervention. While no such plans seem to be in place, the Iranian government is using the remarks to its advantage.

PAKISTAN

It seems the threat of clashes between security forces and protestors is on hold while the former Prime Minister recovers. Police have not stood down and there is still a massive presence in Islamabad and along the route of the march, but it seems unlikely that large-scale violence will erupt for now.

UZBEKISTAN

Government economists announced stronger-than-expected growth in 2022 as the nation is bucking the pressures of inflation and economic retraction.
The Government announced its intentions to “fast-track” the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan rail project.

SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS

In Afghanistan, Was a Loss Better than Peace?

By Kate Bateman - USIP

The American war in Afghanistan incurred staggering costs — for the United States, Afghans and others — over two decades. The U.S. government spent $2.3 trillion, and the war led to the deaths of 2,324 U.S. military personnel, 3,917 U.S. contractors and 1,144 allied troops. For Afghans, the statistics are nearly unimaginable: 70,000 Afghan military and police deaths, 46,319 Afghan civilians (although that is likely a significant underestimation) and some 53,000 opposition fighters killed. Almost 67,000 other people were killed in Pakistan in relation to the Afghan war.

AFGHAN NEWS

ICRC: 700,000 people have lost their jobs in Afghanistan in the past year

By Ariana News

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has warned that the situation in Afghanistan will worsen in…

Far From Finished: The Islamic Emirate Air Force

By Sgihn Mitzer, Lukas Muller & Joost Olimans - ORYX

The Islamic Emirate Air Force (IEAF) has surprised friend and foe alike by not only continuing to exist as a functional air force, but also by continuously expanding its operational inventory of…

PM Establishes Committee to Investigate Drug Trafficking

By Nazir Shinwari - TOLO News

According to the statement, the Administrative Office of the Islamic Emirate, the Ministries of Communication and Information Technology, Economy and Justice have been given the…

REGIONAL NEWS

Motive Behind Attempted Assassination of Ex-Pakistani PM Khan

By Arif Ahmadi - Khaama Press

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan believed the current political leaders – including Prime Minister Sharif, the interior minister and a military general – were behind the…