Daily Evacuation Brief | May 7, 2022
Daily Evacuation Brief | May 7, 2022
LAST 24 HOURS:
Sources indicate the Taliban leadership is incensed over certain Taliban units’ refusal to engage the National Resistance Front forces in Warsaj. Multiple sources have stated the local Taliban leaders are refusing to fight. Tensions appear to be increasing between more rural Taliban units comprised of ethnic minorities and primarily Pashtun leadership in Kabul.
Multiple engagements have broken out across northern Afghanistan and in select neighborhoods of Kabul. In a change of tactics, resistance forces have stopped sporadically raiding Taliban outposts and are now focused on systematically liberating villages, towns, and districts with the goal of forcing the Taliban out of whole provinces. Reportedly, the NRF offensive wasn’t meant to begin for another week, but forces insisted on beginning now due to the outrage regarding the recent desecration of Massoud’s grave.
In addition to the major combat operations, we have reports of two confirmed assassinations and two unconfirmed assassinations of senior Taliban personnel over the last 24 hours. Sources say special “hunting” teams have been dispatched to kill various leaders across the country. While the Taliban are claiming some of these killings are accidents or “personal disputes”, the close timing suggests otherwise.
The governor of Panjshir and other senior local leaders reportedly fled the area in response to the increase in fighting.
Sources within the Taliban state the leadership is growing increasingly worried about the deteriorating security situation, the effectiveness of opposition forces, and increasing mutinies among non-Pashtun Taliban. In the latest cautionary move, all senior leadership was called into the Palace for an emergency meeting that lasted very late into the night.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
A large Red Guard convoy is heading to the Abdullah Kel and Abshar districts in Panjshir to arrest local members of the ulema and conduct house-to-house searches. Based on the convoy size, likely 500-1000+ Red Guards have been deployed in what may be the largest deployment to date.
Travel in and around Andarab, Panjshir, Takhar, Badakhshan, and Baghlan provinces is heavily discouraged. Many of the roads will likely be closed to all vehicles except military traffic as the Taliban scramble to send reinforcements to the North. It is probable the Taliban will be nervous and may fire indiscriminately on anything/anyone they view as a threat.
Avoid concentrations of Taliban forces in and around Kabul. Clearly, resistance groups have targeted checkpoints, government buildings, and local garrisons.
ANALYSIS SPOTLIGHT:
Afghanistan: Subverting Is Easier Than Ruling
By Strategy Page
In 2021 the Afghan Taliban, with the help of Pakistan, regained control of Afghanistan. Pakistan believed it had achieved a degree of control over Afghanistan they had long sought, with trusted Afghans occupying key positions in the new IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan).
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 86.12 AFN (as of 7 MAY 2022)
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