Daily Evacuation Brief | May 29, 2023

May 29, 2023

TENSIONS BETWEEN IRAN AND TALIBAN DEESCELATE, BORDER REOPENS – Officials in Nimroz Province that the Abrishum crossing reopened after being closed while border security forces exchanged fire. 3 casualties have been officially reported but there are scattered reports that additional non-combatants were either killed or injured by (reputedly) wildly inaccurate mortar fire. A source in Kabul said the Ministry of Defense had received information suggesting Iran had purposefully initiated the tensions in order to gauge the Taliban’s ability to respond and what forces would be included. The report referenced a team of IRGC officers who observed the event and made detailed notes about the strength and composition of the Taliban response. Some in Kabul appear to believe the clash was staged in anticipation of potentially larger-scale military operations in the future. A pro-Taliban account alleged that a recruiting effort within the security forces was underway to insert suicide bombers into Iran. Needless to say, the border situation will likely remain heightened throughout 2023.
5.3 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE REPORTED IN THE NORTHEAST – The event occurred yesterday evening and seismologists said the depth of the quake (50 kilometers) likely mitigated the damage to structures on the surface.
PRIVATE SCHOOLS THAT CONTINUED TO OFFER EDUCATION TO GIRLS BEING CLOSED – Anti-Taliban sources said the Taliban had begun closing the last of the private schools in Kabul that allowed female students to pursue their educations. While the ban on education has been in place for some time, a select few schools continued to hold classes for females, often under the protection of powerful local Jirgas. It appears that these schools are now being forced to close their doors. However, it isn’t clear if the Taliban are actively closing the schools as several reports suggest the schools have been under extreme financial duress brought on by a shortage of students. The financial problems have affected schools across the country and are not restricted to those in Kabul. Regardless, the situation has been heartbreaking for many in Afghanistan and few have faith that the much-vaunted ‘Education Plan’ will offer many avenues for women and girls.
CRIME ON THE RISE – While the Taliban have sought to disrupt criminal networks since taking power, few accounted for the ‘internal entrepreneurs’ within the Taliban who would use their newfound status to fill the vacuums created in the wake of the coalition withdrawal. A source in Balkh says that criminal networks have formed within the Taliban security forces that have learned they can act with impunity when it comes to theft and ransom. The source said a prominent businessman in Balkh Province had recently been forced to pay nearly $40,000.00 in a Taliban-inspired extortion scheme. When he reported the members, the previous Taliban Governor of the Province dismissed his claims and reportedly informed Kabul that the man fell victim to ‘Uzbeks’. Various ministers have continually called on the Taliban fighters to adhere to a code of ethics and respect the citizens but centuries of tribal rivalries that often involved criminality have begun to erode the system.

NEXT 24 HOURS

NO THREATS REPORTED

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

The Omani Sultan arrived in Tehran for two days of talks. The Sultan is slated to meet with the supreme leader and the President during his stay.
Flooding across Northern Iran has killed 2 people and caused significant destruction to homes and agricultural fields.
Israeli officials announced an official visit to Azerbaijan as relations between the two countries align over Iran.

PAKISTAN

Three more high-ranking PTI leaders called it quits yesterday and announced they were leaving the party over the 9 May violence.
An earthquake struck Western Pakistan with a recorded magnitude of 6.0. The quake straddled the border with Afghanistan but no casualties or significant damage was reported.
7 Iranian nationals were released from prison yesterday. The men were caught fishing illegally in Pakistani waters.

SPOTLIGHT OPINION

Pakistan Politics Not A World Cup Cricket Pitch: Former PM Imran Khan Runs Out Of Googlies

By Dr. Subashi Kapila - EurAsia Review

Pakistan former PTI PM Imran Khan, despite his populist image with younger generation and repeated ‘bails-coverage’ perceptionaly provided by an anti-Establishment Supreme Court is seemingly playing his ‘last over’ having run out of googlies. So it is, because Imran Khan failed to recognise that Pakistan politics is not a World Cup cricket pitch where his cricketer’s aggression and swinging googlies/bouncers will ensure a win.