LAST 24 HOURS:
The Khenj district saw significant additional fighting over the last 24 hours. The Taliban have committed additional reinforcements to try and track down NRF forces who, sources state, executed two well-planned and deadly ambushes on Taliban truck convoys. Taliban helicopters have been inserting fighters at high altitudes in the mountains with the intent of flushing NRF fighters from enfilade positions and into Taliban fields of fire from below. However, the Resistance fighters claim the helicopter missions are easy to pinpoint as they can either move their positions or use reserves to ambush the Taliban air assault forces as they make their way down the mountains. One source stated, “These southerners don’t do well in our mountains.” Multiple sources stated the helicopters are operating from a local sports stadium but could not provide more details.
More reports that ethnically distinct units within the Taliban are increasingly at odds continue to stream in. Sources within Taliban units in the North claim that locally recruited Tajik and Uzbek Taliban, who often have a better understanding of northern Afghanistan, are ignored when it comes to strategy and planning.
A district governor from Badakhshan (Maulvi Tahir) reportedly died after being brought to Kabul to report on the deteriorating security situation in his district (Sheki). Sources stated the governor was accused of collusion with NRF forces and imprisoned. The Taliban claimed he died due to diabetes. No further information is available.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
Resistance forces expect to launch a much-anticipated offensive in four additional provinces over the next 24 hours with the goal of exploiting weaknesses caused by the Taliban's focus on Panjshir. Despite the numerical superiority of the Taliban and their mobility advantages, the Resistance forces have succeeded in inflicting significantly higher casualties. By most accounts, they are operating from an overarching strategy and enjoy mutually supportive cooperation with other allied groups. In contrast, the Taliban are prone to indecision and have not successfully achieved momentum. They have primarily adopted a reactive posture and sources indicate the orders coming from Kabul are confusing and outdated. The Taliban commanders in the North are extremely concerned about their standing with the leadership in Kabul, and there is grumbling among the rank and file that their lives are being wasted to achieve incremental gains. Morale is reportedly low.
An investigative team that includes agents from the Ministry of the Interior has arrived in Panjshir to investigate the disappearance of approximately 40 Taliban fighters who were last seen in the Dara district. The Taliban fighters hailed from Eastern provinces, and their families have been pressuring Kabul for answers over the last two days. Kabul had given locals a two-day deadline to find out what happened to the contingent. It is not clear what punishment may be exacted if the information is not provided. At-risk Afghans in Dara should be aware that home searches and interrogations are likely after the team arrives.
ANALYSIS SPOTLIGHT:
China’s Activities and Influence in South and Central Asia
By Jennifer Murtazashvili – Carnegie Endowment
Although China is dangling economic incentives in front of the Taliban, it does so to extract security guarantees while seeking to ameliorate development challenges in Afghanistan for fear that poverty may drive instability.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 90.90 AFN (as of 21 MAY 2022)
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