Daily Evacuation Brief | May 19, 2023

May 19, 2023

DIPLOMATIC SCUFFLE WITH IRAN OVER WATER ESCALATES, QOSH TEPA CANAL COMPLETION COULD WIDEN RIFT REGIONALLY – ‘Water Wars’ refers to national, regional, and international tensions that arise over access to fresh water. The issue is particularly concerning for developing countries as agriculture is typically a pillar in their national economies. The spat between Afghanistan and Iran over water rights to the Helmand River goes back decades and the two have tossed accusations at each other since the matter was supposedly settled with the agreement in 1973. Iran has lodged official complaints year after year that less than 5% of the agreed-upon amount ever flows into the Hamoun basin. Afghanistan has responded (even before the Taliban came to power) that the water levels in the Kajaki Dam are low and must be replenished. Iran has casted doubt on this assertion and continues to request that a joint delegation visit the reservoir to make an assessment. Yesterday, Iran’s Foreign Minister threatened unspecified action if the Helmand River situation was not corrected. While the Helmand River presents an immediate problem, the Qosh Tepa Canal project has much wider implications for regional instability. The construction of a major canal that would provide water to Afghanistan’s dry northern plains has long been a dream. Planners in the region were taken by surprise in January 2023 when the Taliban sanctioned the release of a video showing significant progress on the project. The Qosh Tepa Canal is expected to divert up to 30% of the water from the Amu Darya River and planning figures suggest it could create 250,000 jobs. However, the river is critical to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The problem is already being taken seriously as evidenced by a decree issued by the president of Uzbekistan on 1 April ordering the establishment of water efficiency standards in anticipation of a deepening crisis.
BEWARE OF THESE FAKE AFGHAN RESETTLEMENT ORGANIZATIONS – There are concerns over two organizations that are rumored to be targeting desperate Afghans in Pakistan with resettlement scams to come to the US. The organizations in question are IOMA (acronym undefined) and AARO (Afghanistan-America Relocation Office). The rumors forced the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM) to issue a message reminding those working on Afghan refugee cases that no legitimate organization will charge fees for relocation, resettlement, or protection.
ISLAMIC CONFERENCE IN RUSSIA BEGAN, TALIBAN SEND DELEGATION – Russia opened the 14th international gathering of Islamic nations in Tatarstan yesterday. The Taliban sent a delegation to attend the conference with the mission of increasing trade and international investment.

NEXT 24 HOURS

PAKISTAN POLICE EXPECTED TO LAUNCH A ‘COUNTER-TERRORISM’ OPERATION TO ARREST ‘TERRORISTS’ HARBORING IN IMRAN KHAN’S HOME IN LAHORE – The raid is reportedly imminent and will focus on arresting between 30 and 40 PTI party followers who are suspected of attacking Army and Police facilities during the chaos of the protests. Khan had been given twenty-four hours to hand the suspects over but the deadline came and went. The acting government for Punjab Province said that it expects the operation to take place ‘soon’. The raid could provoke a new round of protests and if any violence occurs, the protests could easily act as a call to action for the PTI faithful. Khan had dismissed the demand to hand over his followers and told Police that they must use a search warrant if they want access to his home. We do not feel the raid will spark another national outcry similar to what was witnessed on 9 May. However, if casualties result or, the raid is used as a pretext to arrest Khan or members of his household things could deteriorate rapidly.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

Several leaked documents have illustrated China’s encroachment into Iran’s telecom industry.
The US formally requested the Iranian regime halt planned executions for 3 condemned protestors.
Iran pushed back on Azerbaijani claims that it had backed a coup plot in the country saying the connections to the Iranian government and the coup plotters were ‘farsical’.

PAKISTAN

China has said it is demanding loans to several Pakistani companies be repaid. Due to China’s history of keeping its loan programs secret, it is not clear how much of a hit the economy will take. Some economists believe that over 50% of external corporate debt in Pakistan is held by China. It could devastate the economy.
After the protests, the government announced it would open 2 new police stations in Islamabad to help deal with civil unrest in the future.
A bomb blast in Peshawar has killed 1 non-combatant and injured three others. The bomb was planted on a motorcycle and took place near a hotel on the Ring Road.

SPOTLIGHT RESISTANCE

Afghan Women Use Art to Resist the Taliban

By Fatima Faizi - Yes Magazine

Husneya Saidi did not leave her home for two months after Taliban fighters stormed into Kabul, Afghanistan, on August 15, 2021. Her decision was driven by fear and uncertainty, as the city experienced the most significant shift in power dynamics in nearly two decades, resulting in an unstable political climate.

AFGHAN NEWS

500 Kg of Explosives Material Seized at Torkham Border: Official Says

By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press

The Customs Directorate of the Taliban reported on Thursday that an explosives shipment weighing close to 500 Kg had been found at the…

UNICEF, Afghan Female Staff Delivering Aid Despite Taliban Edicts

By Margeret Besheer - VOA

The U.N. children’s agency representative in Afghanistan says his agency, including its female Afghan staff, continue to work in the country…

Taliban morality police intensifies crackdown on women in Herat city

By Kabul Now

According local sources in the western province of Herat, the Taliban’s vice and virtue police have intensified pressures on women to conform the…

REGIONAL NEWS

Iran threatens 'pressure' on Taliban amid deepening water row

By Al-Monitor

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the Islamic Republic will resort to pressure if necessary against the ruling Taliban establishment in…