Daily Evacuation Brief | May 16, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
TALIBAN FORCES CONDUCT DRILLS IN THE SUPREME LEADER’S COMPOUND IN KANDAHAR – The Governor’s office in Kandahar announced that a series of drills by Taliban security forces would take place yesterday (possibly today) at the Mullah Omar compound. The drills did involve some live use of ordinance. A source in Kabul claimed that a Ministry of the Interior officer assigned as an observer to the security detachment for the Supreme Leader was denied access to the training. The source said the drills focused on defending the perimeter of the compound and reacting to a notional drone strike and/or rocket attacks.
MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR HAQQANI VIEWED AS POSSIBLE REFORM MINDED ALTERNATIVE TO THE SUPREME LEADER – In a recent controversial interview, Karen Decker, Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy in Afghanistan was asked if Sirajuddin Haqqani was a terrorist and if he was still wanted by US authorities for terrorist actions. Decker danced around the response and many see this as evidence the US and other international states may be warming to him as a potential counter-balance to the hard-liners in Kandahar. Both Haqqani and Yaqub (Minister of Defense) have made no secret of their views on the future direction the country should take and have openly challenged the parochial view of the Deobandist-minded cabal that surrounds the Supreme Leader. Clearly many are hoping that one or both of these men ‘solve’ the problem that Kandahar poses. However, several experts have pointed out that the rank and file of the Taliban share the vision the Supreme Leader has established and any potential challenge (bloodless or not) would most likely devolve into a civil war.
WAR CLOUDS FORMING OVER IRAN – The situation in Iran has continued to worsen over the course of 2023. Tehran seems intent on goading the US and the West into taking some kind of action in the Persian Gulf and many are now saying that a de facto state of war exists with Israel. Tehran has cozied up with Russia and is doing its best to make itself an indispensable supplier of arms and ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine. It received a bump in approval ratings for reestablishing relations with Saudi Arabia but many believe the foundations on which the Chinese brokered rapprochement has been laid could evaporate if the promises to halt military/technical/financial aid to the Houthi rebels in Yemen are not kept. While the protests that rocked the country in late 2022 have fallen off, Iran faces a dismal economic situation that has been made worse by falsified economic data that fails to reflect the economic realities faced by average Iranians. Finally, the rapid progress in the enrichment program has all but given Israel a countdown clock for action. In short, several pre-conditions for conflict now exist and some are saying that war is inevitable. Should a conflict erupt, few will be surprised.
NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN ‘FREEDOM PROTESTS’ – The ousted former Prime Minister's calls for nationwide protests (Freedom Protests) have taken on an ominous tone. His YouTube speech after his release seemed to incite followers to ‘’snatch’ freedom and to be prepared to ‘sacrifice’ for it. The government has responded with similar incendiary remarks such as the Foreign Minister’s statement to Parliament that the PTI party has ‘one last chance’ to prove itself. The Army has made no bones about its intent to safeguard its bases and troops. Several small demonstrations have continued to take place in certain cities, both for and against the regime. However, these have not resulted in significant clashes. Most are looking to 17 May as the next potential flashpoint when Khan’s immunity from arrest expires. We agree that 17 May will likely be the next crucible date for the drama but at-risk Afghans in Pakistan should not discount the potential for problems starting today or tonight. We recommend people stock up on food/water and be prepared to shelter in place from Wednesday afternoon. We do not assess a specific threat to Afghan citizens in Pakistan but believe the main threat will come from being caught between the government and PTI lines.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
The government has barred all foreign workers from laboring in food processing factories and plants.
5 more prisoners were executed yesterday. The condemned were convicted of narcotics trafficking.
US lawmakers set to receive a classified briefing on the situation in Iran. Some believe that military options are being considered after problems in the Persian Gulf and increasing tensions with Israel.
PAKISTAN
Authorities in Lahore have extended the prohibition against gatherings for the next 7 days in anticipation of further demonstrations by PTI.
At a pro-government rally near the judicial center in Islamabad, party leaders called for the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court to resign over perceived sympathies to the former PM, Imran Khan.
A tribal dispute at a coal mine in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province resulted in the deaths of at least 16 people on Monday. Police had moved in and taken control of the mine.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
The Prospect of US-Taliban Counterterrorism Cooperation: Is the Embrace Worth It?
By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza - The Diplomat
It is not often that the United States and the Taliban vouch for the authenticity of the same incident. On April 25, American officials appeared to confirm the Taliban claim that the mastermind of the August 2021 suicide bombing attack at Kabul International Airport’s Abbey Gate, which killed 13 U.S. troops and as many as 173 Afghan civilians, was killed in a Taliban operation in early April.
AFGHAN NEWS
Two cash aid packages of $40 million arrive in Kabul in just four days
By AMU TV
The aid packages of $40 million are sent to Afghanistan every week, but after the Taliban ban on UN female employees, there was a pause in the…
Islamic Emirate Reduces, Waives Various Taxes
By Bibi Amina Hakimi - TOLO News
The Islamic Emirate announced on Monday that it had reduced value added tax from 4% to 2% for the industrial sector and…
By 8AM Media
Local sources in Faryab province report ongoing armed clashes between indigenous residents and nomadic herders over grazing lands in…
The Crime Stories of Kabul: From the Paris of Central Asia to Kingdom of Chaos
By Paul French - Crime Reads
Kabul – of late a poor benighted city of three and half million people destroyed by politics, extremism, endemic poverty, and…
REGIONAL NEWS
Imran Khan Calls For ‘Freedom’ Protests Across Pakistan
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
Khan accused the head of the Army, General Asim Munir, of being responsible for…
Iranian Diplomats Visit Kunduz Province in Afghanistan to Enhance Trade Relations
By Nigar Bayramli - Caspian News
A delegation of Iranian diplomats recently visited Kunduz Province in northern Afghanistan to engage in trade discussions with…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
By Farangis Najibullah - RFE
In the waiting hall of Moscow's Sakharovo Migration Center that is often packed with foreign workers applying for work or…
Afghan immigrant on FBI terror watchlist arrested crossing southern border illegally
By Anna Giaritelli - The Washington Examiner
"This apprehension occurred after the individual crossed the border alongside a group of migrants near Otay Mesa, CA," said…
THE DAILY WTF
Documents Produced to Support Claims of Fraud at Afghan Embassy in India
By Banafsha Binesh - TOLO News
A representative of the "Afghans based in India," Shams Rahman Qarizada, voiced claims about widespread corruption at the…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 87.96 AFN (as of 16 MAY 2023)