Daily Evacuation Brief | March 7, 2022
Open source daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region powered by Operation Snow Leopard
LAST 24 HOURS:
A man was shot outside of a bank in Kabul while trying to withdraw more than the daily limit.
Sources within the Taliban indicate many of the soldiers recruited since the fall of the former regime have not been paid in months and are growing restive.
Sources have suggested the Taliban have the capability to intercept cell phone calls and locate individual callers. At-risk Afghans are cautioned to avoid placing direct phone calls and are encouraged to use apps such as Signal to communicate.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
Pakistani Army Engineers are expected to pick up work on completing the Durand Line. They have reinforced the engineers with light and heavy mortars and infantry. Sources have spotted drones flying over the fence since the Peshawar terror attacks. At-risk Afghans in the area should avoid the area and be prepared for clashes.
Security searches are continuing across the country and looting by the Taliban forces has been reported in several of the cities. It is believed that many of the Taliban security forces have not been paid reliably and are attempting to make up the difference by stealing from those they are searching.
ANALYSIS SPOTLIGHT: The Dangers of an Unpaid Army
The Taliban have made no secret of their recent recruitment drive for a new Afghan Army. They have proudly published stories about the multiple cohorts of soldiers that have matriculated over the past two months and simultaneously purged thousands of “bad recruits'' since taking power. Furthermore, the Taliban have publicly established an end-strength goal of 110,000 military personnel. Achieving that goal would make it one of the biggest and best-equipped forces in the region.
How they intend to pay for the force amid a crippling economic crisis and a widespread humanitarian emergency is another matter entirely.
Several troubling reports have started coming in about the Taliban’s armed forces not having been paid in months. While religious fervor can sustain a portion of the recruits, many have families and presumably expect some modest remuneration for their service.
Large-scale military operations like the current nationwide search effort have put enormous strain on limited resources, and equipment and vehicles have already started to break down and there has been no clearly announced sustainment plan for the force. In fact, a defense budget has never been openly discussed and would likely raise eyebrows among donor states who are likely focused on keeping famine in check.
The Taliban have been on the other end of this equation before and know the consequences are real. Before their takeover, a sizable number of the former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces would desert the ANDSF when pay was scarce and join the Taliban, who could pay at the time.
While the consequences of an aggressive military buildup may shape the future of Afghanistan’s economy, it will require a deeper dive into the data to fully analyze. However, for today’s analysis, we want to shed light on a few potential near-term problems based on how this situation has played out historically:
Morale will decrease if pay continues to be withheld or is disbursed intermittently
Taliban soldiers will engage in illicit activities to supplement their income at the expense of the civilian population, fostering attitudes of alienation
If pay problems persist, the Taliban may resort to paying select units based on loyalty or ethnicity
Vehicles and equipment will continue to degrade and will reduce the efficacy of the force, which will create internal squabbles among the leadership about priorities
Rumors will run rampant in any military including accusations of unfair favoritism, which could cause internal military clashes
Animosity will develop between police, government, and military personnel as resources are spread unequally across ministries
The Taliban may be forced to shrink the force and expel many recruits which will breed resentment
Although the Taliban probably have some form of fiscal plan to support its Army, it is doubtful that it is a comprehensive plan and almost certainly includes the utilization of economic aid to finance the force. Revenue streams are currently unpredictable, and this is unlikely to change within the next year.
The Taliban’s Army will continue to experience disruptions in pay. As the force grows, the severity of the disruptions will increase. If pay is seen to be distributed unequally or, if soldiers are forced to endure an extended period without pay, the likelihood of a mutiny increases.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 90.13 AFN (as of 07 MAR 2022)
$14m being auctioned to stabilise afghani
By Pajhwok Afghan News
Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) is set to auction today (Sunday) up to $14 million in an effort to boost the value of the…
OIC Opens Office in Kabul for Humanitarian Efforts
By Rajab Taieb – TOLO News
The Organization for Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has opened it office in Kabul which will…
Afghan schools to be segregated by gender
By Ariana News
Afghanistan’s education ministry is planning to segregate schools by gender, officials said…
Another Afghan university professor goes missing who criticized Taliban
An Afghan university professor and political analyst, Sayed Baqir Mohsini who had criticized the Taliban has gone missing since…
17th Round of $32mn Cash Aid Delivered to Kabul
Da Afghanistan Bank, Afghanistan’s central bank, announced that a series of $32 million package of humanitarian…
India to ship 8,000 tons of wheat to Afghanistan
By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press
The Indian government on Sunday, March 5, 2022, announced that they will send a third shipment of wheat comprised of…
Afghans Invest in Turkish Property for Citizenship
By Tamim Shaheer – TOLO News
Real estate agencies in Turkey say that the number of Afghans buying homes and property in Turkey has risen by…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
3,000 Afghans Entered Poland Since Ukraine War's Start
By TOLO News
Officials at the Afghan embassy in Poland say that so far, 3,000 Afghans have entered Poland since the…
The Absurdity of the Day
IEA intends to attract foreign aid for Afghan media outlets
By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press
About access to information, Zabiullah Mujahid denied the access being curtailed and added that journalists have access to information and that…
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