Daily Evacuation Brief | March 4, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region powered by Operation Snow Leopard
Threat Analysis
LAST 24 HOURS:
A 10-year-old boy has been killed in a roadside bomb blast on Kandahar-Uruzgan Highway in the Shah Walikot district. No further information is known at this time.
The Taliban are investigating the looting of a World Food Programme truck in Uruzgan and are searching houses and vehicles in the immediate area.
A moderate earthquake was reported approximately 50 kms northeast of Kunduz. The quake registered 4.4, and no damage or casualties have been reported.
The Taliban called for public cooperation to complete the security clearing operations around the country. Afghans were urged to turn in weapons in a separate announcement.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
Pakistan is expected to fly several reconnaissance sorties along the border in reaction to the bombing in Quetta. It is possible strikes or shelling could take place along sections of the Durand Line.
Pakistan is also considering closing the border over concerns about explosives and weapons that were used in the recent bombing. They may announce action in the next 24 hours. At-risk Afghans who intend to make the journey should check on the status before departing.
ANALYSIS SPOTLIGHT:
THE DOOR ON THE RIGHT: PAKISTAN’S PATIENCE IS BEING TESTED
CONTEXT: The recent deadly bombing of a police vehicle in Quetta follows on the heels of high-level discussions held at the border and a recent multi-day closure of the frontier. Sources indicate Pakistani authorities believe the explosives for the bomb may have originated in Afghanistan. Sources went on to say that Pakistani government officials now automatically assume terror attacks carried out in the country are planned and resourced from within Afghanistan. The mounting death toll of Pakistani soldiers, police, and civilians may be sapping the remaining goodwill that has traditionally flowed out of the ISI, the pro-Taliban Pakistan intelligence service.
From the Afghan side, there have been a series of public statements that no attacks will be allowed from Afghan soil. However, this appears to be just political showmanship that they either cannot or will not back up. However, in private meetings between Pakistani and Afghan authorities, sources claim Taliban delegates have agreed to get the TTP and Baloch elements under control.
To date, we have no conclusive evidence of any Taliban effort to assert control over these groups. Purportedly, several religious figures have attempted to intercede and negotiate a ceasefire, but those efforts have yet to bear fruit. In political terms, the Taliban run the risk of alienating more internal factions by attempting to restrain the TTP and Baloch fighters through the use of force.
The question for Pakistan remains: how much more can they bear?
ANALYSIS: In the near term, nobody expects the TTP and Baloch attacks to stop. The Taliban do not appear to have the capacity to halt their operations, and it is not clear whether they even sincerely desire to.
Adding fuel to the fire, Pakistan’s commitment to finishing the Durand Line continues to inflame the situation. We feel the ISI has grossly overestimated its level of control over the Taliban and have significantly underestimated support for the ISI across the Pakistani government. Our analysis indicates that further incidents will greatly increase the possibility the border is closed for an extended period. More fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan can be expected and there is the potential for an escalation of the conflict if any two of the three belligerents join forces.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 91.03 AFN (as of 04 MAR 2022)
Afghan News
New alliance to protect human rights in Afghanistan
By Amnesty International
A diverse array of human rights organisations have come together to establish an alliance to collectively monitor the…
Mujahid: IEA Asking All Citizens of the Country to Voluntarily Hand Over Their Martial tools
By Bakhtar News Agency
Zabihullah Mujahid, in his latest remarks said, Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan demanding all citizens of the country to…
298 inmates freed from Kabul Detention Center
By Abdul Raqeeb Sail – Pajhwok Afghan News
A government delegation freed 298 inmates after assessing their cases at the Kabul Detention…
Regional News
3 killed, 2 dozen wounded in Quetta bombing
Three people, including a police officer, have been killed and 24 others injured in an explosion in…
Doha hosts discussion on Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis
By Ariana News
Doha hosted a round-table discussion this week on current and future humanitarian concerns in…
Afghan border security personnel continue aggressive attitude along Durand Line: Report
By ANI
Afghan border security personnel continued their aggressive attitude, cross border violations and disregard of…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
US Seeks Muslim Nations' Help to Counter Taliban Views on Afghan Women
By Ayaz Gul – Voice of America
The United States has initiated talks with Muslim-majority countries to encourage them to…
By Farida Sial – TOLO News
The participants of the UN Security Council at Wednesday's meeting on Afghanistan expressed concerns over…
The Absurdity of the Day
Mullah Baradar assures investors of security in Afghanistan
By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press
First Deputy PM of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar asked Afghan investors in exile to…
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