LAST 24 HOURS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONFIRMING NRF ACTIVITY IN KABUL ON 28 MAR – Sources from within the Ministry of the Interior confirmed to analysts the night attack on a Taliban security outpost in Eastern Kabul did take place. As many as 15 Taliban were reportedly killed in the attack which was near the Polcharkhi Education Center. We assess this information as valid and agree with other analyst groups that the Spring Offensive has indeed commenced. Other confirmed social media accounts tied to Resistance forces have hailed the operation and appear to confirm the news regarding the 2023 campaign season.
WOMEN’S RADIO STATION SHUTTERED IN BADAKHSHAN – Radio Sada-e-Banwan (Voice of Women) has been forced to close after Taliban authorities accused the station of playing music during Ramadan. It is not clear if the popular station will be allowed to reopen.
RUSSIA ACCUSED OF ‘PLAYING GAMES’ WITH IEA – A source in Kandahar said that Taliban senior leadership scoffed at Russian statements made at a regional SCO security conference in India which implied Afghanistan would be a base of international terror operations in the near future. The source said serious considerations were being made to cancel recent economic deals made with Moscow and that a review of recent major infrastructure deals involving Russia should be undertaken. The source said that, in Kandahar at least, Russia is not considered a friend.
REPORTS SAY IMPRISONED WOMEN’S EDUCATION ACTIVIST HAS REFUSED TO SIGN CONFESSIONS – The imprisoned education activist and founder of the NGO Pen Path, Matiullah Wesa, would not sign a declaration of guilt and is currently in the process of being transferred to a different (unidentified) prison. It is still not clear what charges Wesa faces other than accusations of sedition against the regime. The hashtag #FreeWesa is starting to trend on social media and the international community has lodged multiple complaints with the Taliban over his arrest.
NEXT 24 HOURS
RESISTANCE FOCUSING ON KABUL SO FAR – The two recently confirmed attacks by Resistance forces which are said to have kicked off the Spring Campaign season both took place in Kabul. It is too early to tell but it may signify intentions among Resistance leaders to ‘take the fight’ to the Taliban in Kabul. While many previous Resistance operations were recorded in Kabul during 2022, they tapered off as the Taliban launched offensive operations in Panjshir, Badakhshan, Ghor, Baghlan, and Takhar Provinces. It seems likely that Kabul will be the focus of the Resistance. At-risk Afghans in Kabul can expect to see operations targeting administrative and military/police infrastructure in the city. Resistance targets have historically avoided potential collateral damage situations that could cause non-combatant casualties but such operations are difficult to control. Throughout 2022, Resistance groups commonly announced their operations on social media. This year, we expect far tighter controls will be put in place by Resistance leaders with regard to releasing information concerning operations. What this means for those at-risk Afghans in the country
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
The International Court of Justice rejected an Iranian bid to release $2 billion that had been frozen by the US and which is intended to be paid to families of victims of the 1983 Lebanon bombing. The bombing has been linked to Iran. In a partial victory, other funds frozen by the US were deemed illegal and an order to pay compensation will be issued.
Israel launched missile attacks against Iranian-backed militias in Syria on Thursday morning. At least one militia camp was hit in the strike.
Tensions ratcheted up between Iran and Azerbaijan after an Iranian general said Azerbaijan had allowed ‘Zionist’ forces to operate on its soil.
PAKISTAN
TTP terrorists killed 4 police officers with a roadside bomb and wounded an additional 6 during an attack on a police station in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.
The government announced that technical talks with the IMF over a loan program had been completed. A date for the finalization of the loan has not yet been set.
‘Flour Riots’ continue in certain areas of the country and some cities have had to deal with mobs attempting to loot the distribution trucks. Both police and civilians have been injured in several clashes.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
International Order and Taliban: Theory and Practice
Georgi Asatryan, Ph.D. - VIF India
Afghanistan has historically been on the fringe of global politics while also being unexpectedly and tragically entangled in international processes. It was afflicted throughout the 20th century by linkages to the outside world. The Soviets invasion of Afghanistan took place in 1980s followed by a period of "isolationism". Post-Soviet withdrawal from the country, a bloody civil warfare broke out, which ended in 1996 with the victory of the radical Islamist Taliban. With the support of the Pakistani military, Taliban established the first Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. Taliban leadership gave refuge to Osama bin Laden, who became the one of the most noxious terrorists. Afghanistan under the Taliban was excluded from global politics until 2001. The events in a terrorist state have been overlooked and ignored by the world community. The Taliban did what they pleased, Pakistan shielded and supported them, and Al-Qaeda operated unhindered while it prepared for more heinous terrorist attacks.
AFGHAN NEWS
IEA hoping to increase the number of soldiers to as many as 200,000 by end of this solar year
By Ariana News
Qari Fasihuddin Fetrat, the army chief of staff, said in an interview that the IEA has all the military equipment from the…
Taliban Under Fire for Alleged Afghan Civil Society Crackdown
By Ayaz Gul - VOA
Human rights defenders have alleged that Taliban authorities in Afghanistan are increasingly targeting civil society activists and media workers critical of their curbs on…
Minister Seeks Justice against 'War Crimes Committed' in Afghanistan
By TOLO News
Countries that have committed war crimes in Afghanistan in the last four decades and have killed Afghans under various names should be sent to the…
REGIONAL NEWS
Russia’s NSA tells SCO members Afghanistan poses ‘major threat’ to security
By AMU TV
He said the threats and risks posed by Afghanistan were due to various issues including terrorism, illegal arms and drug trafficking, illegal…
Two Afghan refugees killed and seven injured by Turkish border guards’ gunfire
By 8 AM Media
According to sources among Afghan refugees in Turkey, at least two Afghan citizens have been killed and seven others injured as a result of…
Kazakhstan and Afghanistan Seek to Realign Bilateral Ties
By Sophia Nina Burna-Asefi - The Diplomat
In early March, Afghanistan’s foreign minister, Mawlavi Amir Khan Muttaqi, met with Kazakh Ambassador to…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
Afghans Discover They’re Not the Preferred Refugees for Germany
By Anna Conkling - Who What Why
One year later, Ali still lives in a shelter with other Middle Eastern asylum…
IOC repeats its call to Taliban to lift ban on women playing sport
By AMU TV
The International Olympic Committee’s Executive Board met Wednesday and reiterated its call on the Taliban to urgently reverse restrictions and ensure safe access to…
THE DAILY WTF
Pentagon chief says he has ‘zero regrets’ about Afghanistan withdrawal
By AMU TV
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he does not have any “regrets” about how the U.S. military ended its war in Afghanistan in…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 86.90 AFN (as of 31 MAR 2023)