Daily Evacuation Brief | March 1, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
TALIBAN LEADERS CLAIM TO HAVE KILLED 2 SENIOR ISIS LEADERS IN A SECURITY OPERATION IN KABUL – The Taliban announced they had killed 2 senior ISIS leaders in a recent Kabul security operation. Qari Fateh, the military leader of the terrorist group and one of the reputed masterminds of the attacks on diplomatic, religious, and other Taliban facilities. The identity of the other fatality has not been released. An ISIS-K leader appeared to have confirmed the losses in a social media post that has since been deleted.
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN REPORTED HOMICIDES OVER THE LAST TWELVE DAYS – Most of the murders that have been reported have not resulted in arrests. While all the victim’s identities are not known, at least 8 had served in the military under the former regime. The crimes are similar in that most of the bodies are discovered and dumped in areas of cities where low vehicle and pedestrian traffic occurs. Based on a sampling of several national news outlets, we assess that 32 murders have been reported over the last twelve days. All of the victims were males. In 19 of the cases, the victim’s bodies were dumped in the aforementioned manner. It is possible that a systematic program has been launched. Only 4 of the cases resulted in the apprehension of suspects and family members and friends say that no investigations are being actively pursued in the majority of the cases. It is possible that an official or, an organized crime plot is underway.
TALIBAN SECURITY FORCES BRACE FOR SPRING VIOLENCE – As March arrives, sources say the Taliban are preparing for a renewed onslaught of fighting as Resistance groups may have chosen the month as the official launch of the Spring Campaign season. While intermittent attacks continued throughout the Winter, most were focused on limited objectives and did not escalate into major engagements. The National Resistance Front (NRF), arguably the largest and most organized of the militia groups, was said to have actively recruited new fighters throughout the winter months and rumors of arms shipments and supply deliveries from ‘external partners’ have persisted. Other groups, such as the Afghanistan Liberation Movement (ALM) and the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF), were also said to have rallied more fighters to their respective causes. It is not clear how many Resistance fighters are arrayed in opposition to the Taliban at this time. However, the spate of attacks that took place over the latter part of Winter leads us to believe that coordination between the groups is increasing. For its part, the Taliban has adhered to a regular schedule of training new recruits. The recruits attend three months of training with a sizable portion dedicated to ‘religious studies’. The total end-strength estimates of the Taliban Ministry of Defense vary widely with most analyses suggesting the number lies somewhere between 70,000 and 100,000. There has been little change reported to the tactical disposition of the Taliban forces since the conclusion of hostilities in Panjshir at the end of 2022. The only significant troop displacements that occurred over the Winter were in response to Pakistani reinforcements along the Durand Line (Spin Boldak in particular) and the recent reinforcement of the border with Tajikistan. The Taliban made several announcements concerning the reconstitution of some air assets, but sources familiar with the program say that bench stocks of replacement parts are running low and the repair work has been executed to very low standards. Likewise, the Taliban’s vehicle fleets are beginning to eat through repair parts at an alarming rate and the losses from attrition and frequent wrecks have taken a heavy toll on available means of transportation. If 2023 proves to be as active as 2022 was, Taliban Commanders will be forced to improvise in order to move their forces around the country.
NEXT 24 HOURS
HELMAND ROUNDUP TO CONTINUE – The searches for former ANDSF personnel in Helmand are expected to continue throughout the week. The Taliban have reports of three large arms caches in the Province and are concerned the weapons and ordinance will be moved soon and distributed among Resistance militias. It is thought that nearly 100 ANDSF personnel have been detained and interrogated to try and find the locations of the weapons, but these efforts have yet to produce results. At-risk Afghans residing in the Province should be aware of these search operations and former ANDSF personnel would be wise to consider leaving for a time.
1 girl has reportedly died and 400 others are said to be suffering from the effects of a poisoning campaign that has affected several cities. The girls were reputedly targeted for potential ties to the protest movement.
Iran began a massive air defense exercise that covered roughly 70% of the country. Observers say the exercises were planned in anticipation of possible Israeli air strikes.
An arrest warrant was issued by a court for former Prime Minister, Imran Khan. Approximately 500 members of his political party have also been arrested.
Austerity measures continue to be discussed and are turning into a major point of contention between the various departments of the government.
The government relented and reduced the price of fuel to quell a backlash over the suspension of subsidies. The new pricing model is expected to remain in effect for approximately two weeks.
In Afghanistan Increased Repression Causes Fatigue And International Backlash
By Maladul Haq Ahmadzai - EurAsia Review
In the last three months, in Afghanistan, we continue to see increased repression of women’s rights because of the Taliban takeover. With all the bans on the education and public sector for not allowing women to work or go to school has resulted in international backlash. Moreover, life expectancy for children and for most Afghans in general will continue to degrade if the issue is left unchecked.
2 senior ISIS members killed in Afghanistan, Taliban say
By Rahim Faiez - Stripes
Two senior regional members of the Islamic State group have been killed in Afghanistan in recent weeks in separate operations by the Taliban security forces, a Taliban spokesman…
Afghanistan No Longer Celebrates Armed Forces Day
By Nizamuddin Rezahi - Khaama Press
Afghanistan’s former president Ashraf Ghani issued a decree in 2017, and named February 28, as Armed Forces Day, aimed at supporting the…
Afghan Interim Government Cabinet Members Pass Fiscal Year (1402) Budget
By Nizamuddin Rezahi - Khaama Press
It is stated in that the budget for the year 1402 was passed, and assigned to the ministry of finance for further…
Qatar provides fund for education of Afghan students in Iran
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
According to the agreement, the Qatar Fund for Development will provide €4,878 million to undertake those children who are out…
By Asfandyar Mir - Foreign Affairs
An economic meltdown, underway for several years, has metastasized into a full-blown balance of…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
High-ranking Canadian UN official presses Ottawa for security funding
By Daniel Leblanc - CBC
Shortly after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, former Mountie Gilles Michaud came face-to-face with a man with a $10 million US bounty on…
Former NATO adviser and Afghan refugee says migrants who attempt dangerous crossings have no choice
By Joanne Roberts CBC
After hearing news of the shipwreck in southern Italy that killed at least 61 migrants, Afghanistan-born Winnipegger Zobair Deen said it brought back…
THE DAILY WTF
US left $7.2 billion worth of weapons for Taliban in Afghanistan
By News AM
The withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan resulted in the United States leaving the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) $7.2 billion worth…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 88.89 AFN (as of 1 MAR 2023)