Daily Evacuation Brief | June 13, 2023

Jun 13, 2023

CONCERN OVER UN FINDINGS THAT AL QAEDA IS SERVING AMONG THE TALIBAN ADMINISTRATION – Despite continued denials on the part of the Taliban, the group continues to maintain close ties to Al Qaeda members and a recent report from a research team at the United Nations has discovered several members of the terrorist group that are serving in senior positions within the Taliban. The Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team conducted a thorough review of Taliban appointments since coming to power and found that at least four were recognized to have affiliations with both groups. Of the four, 2 were serving as District Governors, 1 was the Deputy Minister of the Interior, and 1 was a senior leader in the Ministry of Defense. The research team concluded that Al Qaeda enjoys protection from the Taliban regime and discovered instances where Al Qaeda members were receiving ‘pensions’ and travel documents. For its part, the Taliban has not convinced many (if any) that it is taking the fight against terrorism seriously. While they have battled ISIS-K somewhat effectively, most observers see this as an effort to ‘reduce the competition’ rather than reducing the threat of terrorism in the region or internationally. The many other terrorist organizations known to be operating within the borders of the country seemingly do so with the full knowledge of the Taliban.
AUTHORITIES IN FRANCE IDENTIFY AFGHAN WHO ACCOSTED FORMER PAKISTAN ARMY GENERAL IN PARIS – The French Gendarmerie says it has discovered the identity of the Afghan man who recorded video of a heated exchange he had with General Javed Bajwa and his wife earlier this month. The Embassy of Pakistan lodged a protest with French authorities over the incident. While the French authorities did not release the man’s last name, he has been identified as Shahid and is said to have come from Nangarhar Province. He has applied for asylum in France. French law allows for penalties for those who interfere with tourism. It is not clear if any charges have been filed against this man.
DURAND LINE RESETTLEMENT PROJECT IN PLANNING STAGES – Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, addressed the issue of resettling the refugees from Waziristan who have settled along the Durand Line and who have been making Pakistan nervous for years over potential ties to militancy and attacks that have been carried out in Pakistan. According to Mujahid, the refugees will be sent to Provinces in the North, South, and Central parts of Afghanistan. He said that those who have caused concern to Afghanistan’s neighbor will be easier to monitor and ‘control’ after they are moved. The refugees appear to view the plan with suspicion and many are frightened over being uprooted and sent to areas with different ethnic demographics. There is still not a fixed date for when the displacements will start but sources in the Ministry of Defense say that plans are being drawn up to reinforce Taliban units in the areas under question prior to any evictions. We assess that violence is likely once the plan is implemented.
NEW 10 AND 20 AFS NOTES BEING PLACED INTO CIRCULATION – Banks have reportedly begun issuing the new 10 and 20 afs notes across Afghanistan yesterday. However, the process will take some time to get the new notes to more isolated areas. The Central Bank has said that Afghans can freely turn in worn notes for no fees at its branch locations.
HEALTH SYSTEM UNDER EXTREME DURESS IN AFGHANISTAN – Afghanistan’s medical system has been particularly hard hit by the rise of the Taliban. Many health practitioners fled the country and those that stayed found themselves under scrutiny by the Taliban with some being forced to quit their jobs. Women doctors, nurses, and staff have faced significant barriers to continue working in their chosen fields and the economic situation has meant shortages of medications, materials, and technical upkeep of sophisticated machinery. Several Provincial health treatment facilities have long signaled that they do not have the means to treat people and complain about inconsistent supplies of medications. Further exacerbating the situation, the Ministry of Public Health has failed to schedule the required Medical Expert Examination tests to certify new Doctors for well over a year now. Some say the exam is being reviewed by ‘religious scholars’ so that it meets the Taliban’s rather narrow view of Sharia compliance. Regardless of the reason, the delay will have an adverse impact on Afghan citizens seeking medical care.

NEXT 24 HOURS

PAKISTAN ORDERS EVACUATIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF ITS COAST AS BIPARJOY REACHES COAST – Approximately 9,000 families have been moved from their homes along the coast as the winds from the Cyclone began lashing the coastline. More evacuations are expected to continue throughout the day but emergency managers have warned that people in the path of the storm should try to move themselves as services are stretched thin. The storm is expected to reach maximum intensity on Thursday.
DANGEROUS WEATHER ALSO FORECASTED FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF AFGHANISTAN – More rain is expected to soak the North and Central Eastern Provinces today. In a few areas, the rain is expected to be heavy and flooding is expected. Lightning also poses a risk and travel is strongly discouraged due to the risk of flooding.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

Iran’s Foreign Minister said that talks were taking place with Azerbaijan to resolve tensions between the two countries. The Foreign Minister said that he hopes Azerbaijan will reopen its embassy in Tehran soon.
A report released yesterday from Eurostat showed that Germany had received a large shipment of oil from Iran in March. It is not clear if the shipment fell under the provisions of either the United States or European Union sanctions.
Iran confirmed that talks are ongoing with the US over the nuclear program in Oman.

PAKISTAN

Train service in the South has been suspended over concerns about Cyclone Biparjoy.
The Russian crude oil delivery that was made in Karachi yesterday was paid for in Chinese Yuan. It is not clear if the currency will be used in ongoing petroleum purchases from Russia in the future.
Interest rates were not raised yesterday and many believe it is a signal that further increases will be paused.

SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS

The Islamic State and the Taliban’s Counter-terrorism

By Antonio Giustozzi - London School of Economics

In August 2021, the Taliban suddenly went from being an insurgent organisation, not alien to deploying terrorist tactics, to being a government, even if not recognised by anybody as such as yet. The Taliban themselves were shocked by their faster-than-anticipated rise to power, and were caught unprepared. They had to move quickly, and figure out how to (re)organise the state apparatus.

AFGHAN NEWS

Afghanistan: Female restaurateur expands business despite challenges

By AMU TV

Well known restaurateur Bakhtawar Mahdawi from Bamiyan City has taken the step to expand her business by opening a second restaurant despite the challenges of being a businesswoman in…

Child Laborers Increasing in Afghanistan: ILO

By Mitra Majeedy - TOLO News

On World Day Against Child Labor, the head of the International Labor Organization (ILO) in Afghanistan warned of an increase in the number of children who are engaged…

Poison spread by the enemy still in place, says Haqqani

By Ariana News

Addressing a gathering of religious scholars, tribal elders and local officials, the Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani said that the “poison” of the enemies still…

REGIONAL NEWS

Fearful of Secession in Gorno-Badakhshan, Dushanbe Cracks Down on Ismailis and Aga Khan

By Paul Goble - Window on Eurasia

Faced with continuing unrest and fearful of secession sponsored from abroad in its Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, the government of Tajikistan has launched…