Daily Evacuation Brief | July 3, 2023

Jul 03, 2023

IRANIAN BORDER GUARDS KILL SEVERAL AFGHANS TRYING TO CROSS BORDER IN NIMROZ – Reports vary but at least four Afghans were killed when Iranian border guards opened fire on a group of youth who were attempting to cross illegally into Iran in Southwestern Nimroz on Saturday night. Taliban officials have yet to comment on the incident.
TTP RESETTLEMENT IN THE NORTH PRESENTS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION – Residents of Takhar and other Northern Provinces continue to express concerns about the flood of TTP militants that continue to arrive from the Eastern border and are settling in their communities. The resettlement plan that was proposed (and financed) by Pakistan was a move to cut off the base of support for the TTP in Northern Waziristan. It has proven to be unpopular with just about everyone involved and many believe it has lit a fuze that has the most potential to ignite true widespread violence in the country that could last for decades. By most accounts, the Taliban allowed the TTP to move into these Provinces with their weapons and it is not clear what lodging/support arrangements have been made for them over the long term. As ‘fellow mujahadeen’, it is entirely possible that they will receive housing concessions from the Taliban, likely at the expense of the locals. As has been seen with the Kochi resettlement initiative, violence often results when different ethnicities are forced into cohabitation and real estate is taken from one group and given to another. Analysts are wondering what could happen in the North when Paksitan’s financial support dries up and the newcomers begin to compete for scarce jobs and/or resources. The project has been going on for over 30 days now and it is not known how many TTP have been relocated or, where they are situated. Most estimates indicate that around 5,000 TTP fighters are in Afghanistan and the number swells to approximately 40,000 when their families are taken into account. By acceding to Islamabad’s demands, the Taliban may have laid the groundwork for a generational conflict in the North. Our analysis indicates that this project has the greatest potential to result in widespread conflict and violence than any other undertaken by the Taliban to date.
LETTER PURPORTEDLY FROM THE MINISTRY OF VIRTUE AND VICE COULD SEE WOMEN’S BEAUTY PARLORS CLOSED AT END OF JULY – An unverified letter was leaked on social media and claims to have been issued by the Ministry of Vice/Virtue that pertains to women’s beauty salons across the country. In the letter, the Ministry says that by order of the Supreme Leader, all salons are to be closed by 25 July. Several of these official-looking letters have turned out to be hoaxes and until verification is provided by a reputable news organization, we view this letter with suspicion.
TTP IN PAKISTAN EXECUTES ONE OF ITS OWN – A rumored informant who had been a member of the TTP for several years was reputedly executed by the group in Bannu for spying. The man, Awrangzib (aka Amiri), was reportedly killed sometime over the last three days for reporting information to the Pakistan military and was also accused of killing another unidentified TTP member. Sources in Islamabad said that the TTP was growing concerned by the recent successes the Pakistani Army was having in its operations in Punjab and Balochistan and has been quietly purging its ranks of possible informers.
LOW AND MID-LEVEL TALIBAN TURN TO BRIBES TO SUPPLEMENT THEIR INCOME – An open secret in Afghanistan and among groups that continue to work on evacuation efforts is that junior and mid-level members of the Taliban began a scheme to arrest Afghans on the barest of charges in order to collect bribes from family and friends. The scheme began very early in 2022 and has since spread to most Provinces and has become a lucrative way for the average Talib to make extra money. While the senior leadership of the Taliban continues to espouse a vague moral code of conduct for the rank and file, little has been done to police the nefarious activity, and some Ministers are even thought to be profiting from the scheme. Those who worked or served under the previous regime are particularly vulnerable and many of these ‘Muja-Entrepreneurs’ have learned through experience that they can keep the victims locked up for extended periods without any concern of admonition from superiors. Bribe amounts can vary but the range that has been commonly reported averages between $600 to $1,200 dollars.

NEXT 24 HOURS

MONSOON RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY ACROSS PAKISTAN – Meteorologists issued warnings on Sunday that rain and wind (possibly hail) should be expected over the coming 5 days as currents from the Arabian Sea moved North through the country. Urban flooding is expected in the low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Gujranwala, and Lahore. There are also concerns the rains will trigger landslides in some of the hill country. Strong winds could cause gusts up to 70 kmh. At-risk Afghans are advised to keep their communications devices charged and be prepared for power outages. Travel could be dangerous and individuals should attempt to find out the conditions on the roads before embarking on any trip.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

The regime announced it was holding off on sending its next ambassador to Sweden as a sign of protest over the recent Quran-burning incident.
‘Free Iran’ Summit meets in France over the weekend. The summit attracted several influential people from around the Islamic and European regions. The meeting took place as riots continued in the streets of Paris. A summary of the conference can be found HERE.
An IRGC-linked website has demanded that all foreign diplomats abide by the Hijab dress code. The site seized on photos taken of tourists in diplomatically plated vehicles in Khorramabad showing a man wearing shorts and women without headscarves.

PAKISTAN

4 Pakistani security forces personnel and 1 militant were killed when a security outpost in the Zhob District was attacked by militants who reportedly fled into North Waziristan after the incident. The TTP claimed credit for the attack.
A series of kidnappings in Faisalabad took place over the last twenty-four hours and there are reports that at least 10 people have been kidnapped (9 of them girls).
PTI party establishes a new committee to try and regain momentum after large-scale defections have called its viability into question.

SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS

How the Taliban launched the ‘most successful counter-narcotics effort in human history’

By The Telegraph

America’s “war on drugs,” launched by President Richard Nixon in 1971, raged for more than half a century but hardly put a dent in the Afghan opium trade.

The country’s farms account for more than 80 per cent of the world’s opium production but even the American invasion in 2001 did little to disrupt the flow of drugs out of the nation.

But now, where the world’s drug enforcement community has failed, the Taliban themselves are succeeding.

AFGHAN NEWS

Alarm bells ring for Takhar residents over incoming TTP fighters

By AMU TV

A number of residents of Takhar province voiced their concerns regarding the relocation of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members and their families to the…

Military Veterans Call on Interim Govt to Protect Them Against Opportunists

By TOLO News

“If you ask us, we can present any military official to any department who was a general or military member in Afghanistan but some biased individuals give a…