Daily Evacuation Brief | January 6, 2023

Jan 06, 2024

ISIS-K IS BACK AND IN A BIG WAY – Few in the international community believed that ISIS-K had been ‘pacified’ in Afghanistan as the Taliban leadership continually claimed in 2023. Recent remarks by Taliban leadership put the total remaining number in Afghanistan at around 80 terrorists. The remarks now rank up with those of US National Security Advisor (Jake Sullivan) who said the Middle East was ‘quieter’ than it had been in decades days before the Hamas attacks in Israel. Both the Taliban and Sullivan likely regret the timing of their utterances. Yesterday, US intelligence sources confirmed that the twin bombings in Kerman had been orchestrated by the Afghanistan-based branch of ISIS (ISIS-K). The sources referenced ‘compromised communications intercepts’ as proof of ISIS-K’s involvement. Certainly, Kabul will attempt to deflect the claims as the usual ‘Western enemies’ nonsense and the misdirection may even find some sympathetic ears in Tehran, which has been crafting its own bogus narrative about Israeli complicity, but it is bound to come out in the end. Long-term observers of Afghanistan have continued to sound the alarm bell over ISIS-K’s reach from Afghanistan. Most have dismissed the epitaphs of its premature demise as a sophomoric PR stunt by a Taliban regime that is clearly in over its head when it comes to providing domestic security and mere wishful thinking by those sympathetic to the Taliban who are eager to bring humanitarian programs back online. The attacks in Kerman illustrate for all the world that the hard-line group is far from defeated and the Taliban’s inability to bring its rival to heel will further erode regional and international trust in Kabul’s ability to tackle terror threats. The coming weeks look to be difficult ones for Kabul and Kandahar. Our analysis indicates the Taliban will continue to attempt to shift the blame to neighboring States (Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan). However, we do not believe Iran or other regional powers will pay much heed to the maskirovka and that additional pressure to defeat ISIS-K will be placed on Kabul.
SOURCES SAY TALIBAN IS ASKING CHINA AND IRAN FOR HELP IN RESTRICTING INTERNET ACCESS – Presumably in response to several online initiatives to provide education for girls and boys, a source in Kandahar said that recent overtures to both Iran and China have been made for assistance in controlling access to the internet. The source was unable to provide information regarding any potential ‘help’ either country was willing to give the Taliban. External sources said that China would likely be unwilling to risk international condemnation for aiding the Taliban in the endeavor and most thought Iran, after the Kerman attacks, would also rebuff any calls for help. It is unclear just how much internal expertise the Taliban would be able to rally should it attempt to crack down on online education. Many of the technocrats who had helped establish the internet have left the country, are women, or have been classified as potential threats to the regime by the Ministry of the Interior.

NEXT 24 HOURS

IRAN SAYS IT WILL CLOSE BORDER – Several sources say the borders remained open yesterday but that additional Iranian troops and police had arrived over the past 48 hours. It is not clear if the borders will be shut, partially shut, or remain open. At-risk Afghans intending to cross the border should consult with friends and relatives to verify. We expect the situation will continue to be complicated for the foreseeable future.
BADAKHSHAN PROBLEM COULD IGNITE – Multiple sources have released documents, photos, and audio online about the ongoing drama in the troubled Province. Some are predicting a clash over the recent rumors about an order to disarm non-Pashtun Taliban in the area. Small clashes continued over the latter half of 2023 but could widen with the recent policy changes.

SPOTLIGHT OPINION

TTP And Its Ideology Of Takfir

By Basit Ali- EurAsia Review

Rise of TTP in Pakistan and Afghanistan around 2007 was nothing short of resurrection of a hibernating sidewinder known in Muslim history as Khawarij. Historically, this ideology is based on violent misinterpretation of Islamic scripture and it first appeared during the time of the Prophet Muhammad PBUH. It continued to appear time to time and their only motive has remained to use twisted interpretation of Quran to declare other Muslims as Non-Muslims a phenomenon known as Takfir. Their ultimate aim has always remained to seek power, authority, and make people obey them through wrongful methods and reasons.

AFGHAN NEWS

Slow internet speeds hinder Afghan girls’ online education

By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press

The Financial Times, using information from online education networks, says that even though there are problems with internet access, Afghan girls are getting better at…

Herat earthquake aftermath: Hundreds of families still in tents

By AMU TV

Nearly three months after the Oct. 7 earthquake in Herat province, over 250 families in Injeel district’s Chahak village remain in tents amidst the ruins of their…