Daily Evacuation Brief | January 30, 2022
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Daily Evacuation Brief | January 30, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region, powered by Operation Snow Leopard
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Threat Analysis
LAST 24 HOURS:
· The Taliban claims they have now launched a probe into the disappearance of two prominent female activists who were abducted from their homes after attending public protests against the Taliban. Few believe the investigation is legitimate and will hold anyone accountable.
· The Taliban met with Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Mooed Yusuf in Kabul to discuss “economic and humanitarian issues.” However, Taliban opposition to the construction of the Durand Line border fence and bilateral concerns over ISIS-K are thought to be the real focus of the meetings.
· Last night, the Taliban set fire to the house of General Naqibullah, a former member of the House of Representatives, and his brother, the former district police chief, in Laghman province.
· The United States has begun ramping up evacuation efforts from Afghanistan. Although it is widely reported as a large-scale resumption of evacuation flights, the criteria announced for evacuation is extremely limited due to strict immigration requirements. American citizens, green card holders, and SIVs will be the primary focus of evacuation efforts. While these limitations remain in place, planes chartered by the US Department of State will likely be leaving without being filled fully. This was already demonstrated by the State Department’s flight earlier this week which had many empty seats. Afghans waiting for assistance would be wise to temper their expectations.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
· ISIS-K is purportedly planning a sticky bomb attack in Herat using a civilian vehicle.
THREAT ANALYSIS:
The New Taliban / A Duality Befitting Janus
CONTEXT: What the Taliban “says” to potential benefactors and what the Taliban “does” to the people in Afghanistan are vastly different. The promises pedaled to foreign leaders, the UN, and international NGOs do not represent the reality on the ground.
DISCUSSION: Nearly every government involved in the Afghanistan crisis believes aid must find its way to Afghanistan as quickly as possible in order to alleviate the ongoing humanitarian crisis. While there have been assurances the aid will be controlled and parsed out under the watchful eyes of international observers or trusted NGOs, no one has mentioned what the red line will be if the promises made by the Taliban are not kept. Is there a private multilateral consensus about what inaction/action would halt aid? Or will aid be provided to alleviate suffering regardless of the conditions on the ground? The situation is a Catch-22. This should not prevent robust discussion.
ANALYSIS: Currently, individual states, regional bodies, and the UN do not appear to be on the same page when it comes to what transgressions might trigger a suspension of aid. In several cases, pledges for aid have been made bilaterally and are not subject to any international agreement. The UN appears to be operating under its own internal directives, and its plans and commitments may vary significantly from that of NATO, the US, and other donor states. At best, there is only a general idea of what the Taliban must do to continue the flow of funds, food, and commodities.
CONCLUSION: The current aimless trajectory will permit the proliferation of serious human rights abuses and deepen the sense of a lack of accountability. Without a clearly spelled out mechanism, such as a binding UN resolution, the Taliban will be allowed to operate freely. Furthermore, states who go against common practice and deliver aid with no strings attached will be able to without repercussions.
Afghani to the Dollar: .0097 – 1 (as of 30 JAN 2022)
Afghan News
Acting Defense Minister Says Rioters Will Be Considered 'Enemies' | TOLO News | By Banafsha Binesh
There are some groups trying to create insecurity in the country, Mullah Yaqoob said, without naming them. The acting minister and chief of army staff recently visited the northern provinces of Balkh, Faryab and Jawzjan. The visit aimed to assess the security situation…
IEA health Minister asks people to get vaccinated against COVID-19 | The Khaama Press News Agency | By Najibullah Lalzoy
Acting Minister of Public Health of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Qalandar Ebad said that the threat of COVID-19 has not been vanished yet from the world and Afghanistan and asked the people to get vaccinated against the pandemic…
Afghan Civilian and Military Airports Resume Activities | TOLO News | By TOLO News
According to Hakimi, there are currently three military airports operating, including Bagram in Parwan, Shurab in Helmand and Shindand in Herat. “Most of these airports did not have problems, only limited airports such as Khwaja Rawash, Kandahar and Khost airports had problems,” said Latifullah Hakimi, head of the military and civil regulatory commission…
Regional News
FM Amir Khan Motaqi asks Pakistan for further facilities for Afghan traders in crossing points | The Khaama Press News Agency | By Najibullah Lalzoy
The acting Foreign Minister of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Amir Khan Motaqi met with Pakistani NSA Moeed Yusuf in Kabul and asked him to provide further facilities for Afghan traders…
Pakistan's National-Security Adviser Holds Talks With Taliban Officials In Kabul | Ganhara | By RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal
Pakistan's national-security adviser has met with high-ranked members of the Taliban-led government in Kabul, to discuss bilateral cooperation, border issues, and efforts to avert a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, officials said on January 29…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s economy is collapsing, the US can help stop it | Al Jazeera | By Shah Mehrabi
As an Afghan American, I have worked for the last 20 years to try to help the people of my home country overcome economic woes and build a more prosperous economy for all…
Weekend exclusive: Rich Afghans fleeing Kabul for London boost number of high-net-worth individuals in UK | City A.M. | By Michiel Willems
Afghanistan is the country with the fastest growing number of High Net Worths relocating to the UK in the latest tax year…
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