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Daily Evacuation Brief | January 28, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region, powered by Operation Snow Leopard
Welcome to the Daily Evacuation Brief. For more in-depth intelligence analysis and crisis research, please subscribe to our members-only journal, which comes out twice a week: Whispers & Anatomy of a Crisis.
LAST 24 HOURS:
· There were no reports of additional arrests in Mazar. Searches of homes and select places of business continued.
· Russia stated an impasse had been reached in talks with the US on Ukraine and signaled there was little optimism the situation could be resolved diplomatically.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
· Security forces in Mazar are expected to begin public announcements over the weekend instructing Afghans who were awaiting flights to return to their home provinces. It is possible they could impose a penalty for those who remain.
Ukraine Crisis and Possible Effects on the Afghan Evacuation
CONTEXT: Russia and NATO’s standoff over Ukraine is one of the most serious geopolitical events in the last decade. Although they nearly traded blows during the Syrian crisis, the situation developing at this moment is far more serious, more directly confrontational, and could have the makings for a full-scale war. We at the Afghan Digest felt it would be important to analyze the potential second and third order effects a conflict would have on the Afghanistan situation.
DISCUSSION: We will not delve into all the scenarios that could play out which would result in armed conflict. For the purposes of this analysis we will solely explore the consequences of Russia invading Ukraine and an ensuing limited scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
ANALYSIS: This scenario would likely have the following effects on the Afghan evacuation:
Airspace in and around the region will likely be closed, causing major disruptions in regional (potentially even global) commercial air travel. Airline companies will likely opt to ground some of their aircraft for several days or weeks while they evaluate the situation. This will affect evacuation flights from Afghanistan and may delay or cancel scheduled aid flights into the country.
Maritime shipping will similarly be affected, and this will have an impact on the prices and availability of commodities such as fuel, grain, and other items normally transported by sea. If blockades are employed, this will affect global maritime trade.
Countries who have close ties to Russia will likely close their borders temporarily, affecting both roads and railroads as well. This will cause greater food insecurity and a lack of other commodities imported into Afghanistan.
Global financial markets will react negatively to the crisis. This may cause donor nations, who have pledged aid to Afghanistan, to withhold promised financial support for a period of time.
A conflict may cause the displacement of Ukrainians to Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, placing additional pressure on the United Nations, NATO, and the EU to deal with additional refugees.
CONCLUSION: In short, any conflict would have a negative impact on Afghanistan and would likely halt evacuation efforts for an indeterminate amount of time. The economic ramifications could also be severe. We at the Afghan Digest hope peace will prevail.
Afghani to the Dollar: .0097 – 1 (as of 28 JAN 2022)
US government-sponsored Afghan evacuation flights to resume with streamlined process | Military Times | By James R. Webb
After a nearly two-month pause, evacuation flights from Afghanistan to Qatar are set to resume, Shawn Van Driver, founder of #AfghanEvac, told Military Times. Additionally, Van Driver said that measures to shorten the visa process are being implemented, potentially trimming a years-long process down to months…
Number of COVID-19 Patients Up 70% in Past Week | TOLO News | By Fakhria Radfar
As Afghanistan is going through a dire economic breakdown, international organizations warned that the country’s health sector is on the verge of collapse. Doctors expressed concern over the sharp increase of patients infected by COVID-19, saying that the number of reported patients showing the symptoms of the new COVID-19 variant has risen by 70 percent within the past week compared to the week before…
A train carrying 748 tons of humanitarian aid materials departed from Turkey to reach its final destination in Afghanistan on Thursday…
India, Central Asian leaders discuss aid to Afghanistan | By The China Post
NEW DELHI (AP) — India and five central Asian countries on Thursday decided to set up a joint working group for providing aid to Afghanistan to tackle the humanitarian crisis and the issue of recognition of the Taliban, an Indian official said…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
UN Launches Engagement Framework to Help Afghans | TOLO News | By Rajab Taieb
UN teams in Afghanistan have launched a new engagement framework aimed to sustain services and preserve systems….
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Changemakers: Changemakers committed to evacuation and resettlement efforts. (biweekly- all subscribers)
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