Daily Evacuation Brief | January 23, 2022
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Threat Analysis
LAST 24 HOURS:
· Taliban delegation arrived in Norway for talks about aid implementation.
· A car bombing in Herat has claimed several lives. It is unclear who is responsible for the attack.
· China began delivery of large-scale humanitarian aid efforts.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
· Taliban security forces will increase patrols in Western and Northern Afghanistan.
· Talks to defuse the Ukraine crisis continue while US arms shipments to Ukraine increase.
THREAT ANALYSIS:
· Discussions between Russia and the US over Ukraine are ongoing in Geneva. US military aid to Ukraine has been ramping up and it is unclear how the Russians are receiving the message? The Afghan Digest will continue to follow the situation as a possible transition to open conflict will almost certainly impact evacuation efforts.
· Most analysts tend to agree the car bombing in Herat was likely planned and executed by ISIS-K forces. The location of the bombing (Hazara community) supports this conclusion. Since this is the first major attack in Herat for months, it is possible it is the first salvo in what may become a campaign there.
· For the second day a drone was seen flying over the outskirts of Mazar. Sources claimed the drone was heard approaching before dawn and was seen circling the northwest section of the city before disappearing. Sources attempted to capture footage of the drone with cellphones, but the video quality is too low to provide any further information. Analysts stated that, if the drone was flying in darkness, it is probably a more sophisticated platform and it is likely satellite controlled. Most analysts believe the drone is Russian and is operated out of the airfield in Termez, Uzbekistan. It is unclear what purpose is behind these sorties although it could simply be routine surveillance for both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
· The Ministry of the Interior announced it had reactivated thousands of security cameras around Kabul. Although the Ministry claimed they will be used to reduce and deter crime, it is widely believed they will also be used to potentially target Afghans and dissidents who oppose the Taliban. A source claimed there were power supply issues with the central database which caused outages several times a day and opined the system was unreliable in its current state.
· Prices for some staples like sugar, tea, and honey in markets across Afghanistan were reported to be slightly lower than in previous weeks. It is not clear what is causing the depreciation but could mean that some humanitarian aid is making its way into the economy.
Afghani to the Dollar: .0095 – 1 (as of 23 JAN 2022)
Afghan News
Salang Pass, Herat- Badghis highway closed to traffic due to heavy snow | Ariana News | By Ariana News
Qazi Obaidullah Obaid, head of the Salang Pass maintenance department said they had decided to close the mountain pass in order to avoid casualties amid bad weather conditions…
Taliban Claims Right to Jail Protesters Following Disappearance of Afghan Women Activists | By Gandhara News
The Taliban has said it has a right to crack down on dissent and to jail protesters amid international concerns about the whereabouts of two women activists who were reportedly detained earlier this week in Kabul…
Several killed in bus blast in western Afghanistan | By Al Jazeera
At least seven people have been killed in a bomb blast on a minibus in the western Afghan city of Herat, officials said. “Four women were among the seven killed,” the head of Herat’s provincial hospital, Arif Jalali, told the AFP news agency on Saturday…
Database, Security Cameras Reactivated: MoI | By TOLOnews
The Ministry of Interior (MoI) said that the database center and security cameras damaged during the fall of the former government have been reactivated…
Regional News
Chinese aids’ delivery begins to Northern Province: IEA | The Khaama Press News Agency | By Najibullah Lalzoy
Officials of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan said that they have started the delivery of humanitarian assistance aided by China. Ministry of Refugees and Repatriates of the IEA on Saturday, January 22, 2022, said that the relief assistance comprises 440 tons of rice that will be distributed to impoverished people in ten Northern Provinces…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
Relations Depend on Islamic Emirate Behavior: West | Tolonews | By Farshad Daryush
he US special envoy for Afghanistan, Thomas West, said that no timeline has been set for the recognition of the Islamic Emirate, and emphasized that normalization of relations between Kabul and the world depends on the Islamic Emirate’s behavior…
Afghanistan: Taliban delegation's visit to Norway prompts protest in Oslo | By Euronews
There was a small protest of Afghan citizens in Oslo ahead of the Taliban's visit to the Norwegian capital on Sunday…
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Postscript.
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