Daily Evacuation Brief | January 17, 2022
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Threat Analysis
LAST 24 HOURS: News broke that both senior Uzbek Taliban commanders in Faryab Province had been arrested between January 12th and 14th. Initial reports claimed that only Makhdoom Alam had been arrested. A roadside bomb detonated on 17 January, killing a child and wounding four Taliban personnel East of Kabul. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the bombing.
NEXT 24 HOURS: More aid flights are expected to arrive and NGO assessment personnel from regional and international groups continue their surveys and planning for the expected arrival of significant shipments of humanitarian assistance packages. There is a potential for more fighting in Faryab.
THREAT ANALYSIS: Although the clashes in Faryab Province have died down, it is widely believed that coverage of the mutiny has been quashed and casualties are thought to have been underreported. With both Uzbek Taliban commanders under arrest, the Pashtun Taliban have unwittingly created the potential for a larger security crisis in the coming months. Long-standing ethnic divisions continue to be a challenge for the Taliban and their responses to date appear to have exacerbated the problem. As is the case in fractured states with internal ethnic issues, the Taliban are relying on forces deemed ‘loyal’ to deal with internal threats. This practice creates a quasi-Praetorian hierarchy within the security forces and hampers cohesion. Furthermore, ethnically aligned civilian populations historically react poorly to, what are deemed intrusions, in local affairs. States with moderately strong institutions can weather such internal in-fighting in their security apparatus. However, the Taliban can hardly be said to have constructed strong institutions. It is our assessment that these tensions will only grow over the next year and more fighting can be expected.
Afghani to the Dollar: .0095 – 1 (as of 17 JAN 2022)
Afghan News
Afghanistan dispatch: Taliban disagreements and disconnection may bring on another war | Jurist
Law students and lawyers in Afghanistan are filing reports with JURIST on the situation there after Taliban takeover. Here, a law student in Kabul offers his perspective on recent conflicts within factions of the Taliban and suggests that if the Taliban cannot somehow connect with the new communities, they are now governing there may be greater prospects for yet another war in the country. For privacy and security reasons we are withholding the name and institutional affiliation of our correspondent…
Arrest of Taliban senior Uzbek commanders troublesome! | AhuylBayt News Agency
AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The Taliban Ministry of Defense arrested Makhdoom Alam and Qari Wakil, the senior Uzbek commanders of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan….
ATM Machines Reactivated in Various Afghan Provinces: Officials | TOLO News | by Amina Hakimi
ATM machines have resumed operations in various provinces after a longtime delay following the rapid fall of the republican government…
Child killed, 4 wounded in roadside bomb blast east of Afghan capital | China.org
At least a child was killed, and four security personnel were wounded after a roadside bomb blast hit a security forces pick-up truck in Bagrami district, east of the capital Kabul on Sunday, the capital police said…
Regional News
Muttaqi Discusses Major Projects with Turkmen Officials | TOLO News | by Shirshah Rasooli
The acting foreign minister discussed political and economic relations with the country’s officials. Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Amir Khan Muttaqi, held a discussion over major development projects with Turkmen officials in a visit to Ashgabat. Last Friday, Muttaqi and his accompanying delegation arrived in Ashgabat, having been invited by Turkmenistan.…
Nepal sends over 14 tonnes of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan | The Himalayan Times | by Rastriya Samachar Samiti
The Government of Nepal has sent over 14 tonnes of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan today…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
What America Owes the Afghans We Left Behind | National Review | by Annie Tiger
Our inaction signs the death warrants on those we pledged to protect. As a veteran with extensive special-ops and intelligence experience, I have seen the evidence. I am an Afghan-born American who served in the United States military with distinction for more than two decades. Because of my service to our great country, my family and others like them are in extreme danger in Afghanistan….
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