Daily Evacuation Brief | January 13, 2024
LAST 24 HOURS
US CONGRESSMAN CALLS FOR TALKS WITH AFGHAN RESISTANCE GROUPS – The Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul told Afghanistan International’s Aref Yaqubi, that he wants to talk with active surviving leadership of the Northern Alliance and other leaders of active Resistance organizations. His remarks came after another Foreign Affairs Committee meeting on Thursday that Afghanistan observers panned as simply ‘more of the same’ and which illustrated for many that the US Government is running out of ideas to deal with the Taliban. McCaul’s words likely rankled the Biden administration as the White House has issued its own fatwah against supporting armed resistance groups and has continually reaffirmed this pledge to both the Taliban and the international community at large since the demoralizing withdrawal from the country. The administration’s political efforts have largely been focused on continually highlighting the death of Al-Zawahiri and the supposed reduction of al-Qaeda as an international threat. However, many see this more as a means of placating US voters before an election. In addition, the preoccupation with al-Qaeda still leaves a bevy of terrorist organizations on the chess board in Afghanistan, some of whom have shown uncommon resilience and have now emerged as ‘regional threats’ at the very least. The Taliban have dug their heels in, weathered all the sanctions storms, and spurned pressure from regional/international/Islamic groups to modify their behavior. On the other hand, the international community has ‘painted itself in a box’ with a self-imposed ban on supporting one of the only coalitions to have ever forced a domestic change in the balance of power inside Afghanistan during the modern era. McCaul is a Republican and has spared no effort to embarrass the administration so his words could have been chosen for political gain. However, considering the current stalemate, perhaps it is time for dialogue with those in opposition to Kandahar.
IRAN MAPS OUT PLAN TO ‘SOLVE’ AFGHANISTAN’S PROBLEMS – Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a four-point plan that it believes will solve the Afghanistan problem. The plan recommends:
Leveraging neighboring countries to expedite the recognition of Afghanistan.
A warning that failing to incorporate Afghanistan into the international community will have devastating effects on peace and security.
Reinforces the role that neighboring States play with regard to Afghanistan’s access to the global community.
Start with a fresh page and form an inclusive government in Afghanistan.
The response by the Taliban’s political office in Qatar was lukewarm at best. Suhail Shaheen said Kabul would welcome assistance but cautioned against attempts to change the structure imposed by Kandahar. Our early analysis of the Iranian plan indicates the first three points are self-serving and simply an attempt to put Tehran in a position to act as arbiter for Kabul. However, the final point is likely the sticking point for Kabul/Kandahar as it once again, albeit diplomatically, recommends an inclusive government. The Taliban have continued to cling to the illusion that it is already inclusive and will likely reject any sort of implementation of Tehran’s strategy.
POSSIBLE NATIONWIDE DEMONSTRATIONS TO TAKE PLACE ON 21 JANUARY – Several prominent women’s organizations have circulated flyers on social media calling for a national demonstration day against the Taliban to take place on Sunday, 21 January. The slogan of the demonstrations is reputed as “No To Taliban”. A quick check on X shows the hashtag #NoToTaliban has been picking up steam over the last twenty-four hours.
NEXT 24 HOURS
NO THREATS REPORTED
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Iran announces arrests of 35 terrorists accused of involvement in the January 3rd Kerman bombings. Presumably, the roundup is the result of investigations after the identities of the mastermind and one of the suicide bombers were made earlier in the week.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations said it would support South Africa’s genocide case against Israel.
Unsurprisingly, Iran condemned the US/UK strikes on the Houthi positions in Yemen.
PAKISTAN
Food prices rose unexpectedly and pushed the official inflation rate to over 44%. Citizens say they expected a much more moderate increase.
Another attack on a police escort that was providing security for a polio vaccination team was recorded in Quetta yesterday. One policeman was injured when two men on a motorcycle opened fire on the detachment.
Two militants were killed by security forces in North Waziristan on Friday after an intense gun battle.
SPOTLIGHT TERRORISM
Will deadly bombings pull Iran closer into Afghanistan?
By Amwaj Media
As the dust from the deadliest terrorist attack in Iran’s recent history settles, authorities in Tehran have divulged that one of the two suicide bombers was a Tajik national. The Iranian intelligence ministry has also suggested that beyond a crackdown at home, extra-territorial operations are on its agenda.
AFGHAN NEWS
85% Afghans Live on Less than One Dollar A Day: UNDP
By Bibi Amina Hakimi - TOLO News
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in a report said that Afghans are dealing with extreme hardship, and approximately 85 percent of…
Traders concerned over fare rise in southwestern routes of country
By Ariana News
Some members of the private sector who trade with Iran are complaining about the increase in fares on the southwestern routes of…
The Azadi Briefing: Why Are Afghans Rushing to Acquire Passports?
By Abubakar Siddique - RFE
Thousands of Afghan men and women are flocking to the central passport office in the Afghan capital, Kabul, after the Taliban suspended online…
REGIONAL NEWS
Mine blast on Iran-Iraq border kills Afghan migrant, injures four
By AMU TV
A mine explosion along the Iran-Iraq border has resulted in the death of an Afghan migrant and injuries to four others, according to Ali Abbas Shafeie, the governor of Mehran, a western Iranian…
Pakistan Claims Capture of Two Islamic State Group Would-Be Suicide Bombers
By Ayaz Gul - VOA
The provincial counterterrorism department said an "intelligence-based" operation had detained the two men near Peshawar, the capital of…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
Deputy PM Discusses Afghanistan’s Engagement with UK Charge d'Affaires
By Naweed Samadi - TOLO News
Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Mawlaw Abdul Kabir, met with the Charge d’Affaires of the UK Mission to Afghanistan, Robert Chatterton Dickson, and stated that…
US Envoys for Afghanistan Briefed House Foreign Affairs Committee
By Mujeeb Rahman Awrang Stanikzai - TOLO News
Special envoy Thomas West told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that al -Qaeda’s ability to threaten the United States from Afghanistan or Pakistan is at a low point since…
THE DAILY WTF
Ex-Afghan intelligence chief claims ISIS-K members remain active
By AMU TV
In an chat with Amu on Friday, Siraj warned of increased urban and cross-border attacks by ISIS-K under directives from the main ISIS leadership in…
“Hopefully the atrocities committed over the past 10 days will wake some ‘leaders’ up.” TAD Staff
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 89.17 AFN (as of 13 JAN 2024)