Daily Evacuation Brief | February 5, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region
Welcome to the Daily Evacuation Brief. For more in-depth intelligence analysis and crisis research, please subscribe to our members-only journal, which comes out twice a week: Whispers & Anatomy of a Crisis.
LAST 24 HOURS:
· More arrests across the country. Educated women appear to have been targeted recently. Sources indicate security forces are operating off a ‘central list’ created by the Ministry of the Interior.
· 14 women and a larger unspecified number of males were released from prison in Kabul. According to a source within the Ministry of the Interior, all prisoners are required to swear an oath to do no harm to the societal order and to comply with Sharia law.
· The leaders of China and Russia met and agreed on support for Russia’s provocations in Ukraine.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
· More arrests are expected across Afghanistan as the Taliban continues a roundup of suspected dissidents. Sources state that once a friend, co-worker, or family member has been placed under arrest, they are interrogated and forced to give names and locations of others who may be on the list. At-Risk Afghans should take precautions if they hear of someone in their circle who has been arrested.
· More NATO troops are expected to arrive in the Baltic states.
· The Taliban are desperately searching for former banking officials to help solve the problems with Afghani banknote supplies. The impasse is holding up aid distribution and is largely seen as a problem the Taliban did not anticipate.
HAVE YOU HEARD OF THE OFA?
CONTEXT: While most Afghanistan observers point to the National Resistance Front as the principal nemesis of the Taliban, there are several other groups organizing intent on finding better pathways forward. The Organized for Afghanistan (OFA), largely a youth-led movement, is just such a group. The OFA draft charter calls for a pan-Afghanistan approach to protect the progressive strides made prior to the Taliban takeover and to blunt the fundamentalist policies of the Haqqanis. They do not advocate for violence but prefer a war of ideas to sway the citizens.
ANALYSIS: It is not clear how much support the OFA retains. As was witnessed during the Arab Spring, technology has added an entirely new set of tools to resistance campaigns. As the youth overwhelmingly control this medium, they may enjoy some success in moving the popular opinion needle towards a reconciliatory path. However, as promising as that sounds, our analysis indicates their stated positions will diametrically oppose the Taliban and they will be led into direct confrontation. Violence is highly probable.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 95.04 AFN (as of 4 FEB 2022)
Calls Mount For Answers Over Missing Women Activists
By Madina Morwat - TOLOnews
Reports of a second instance of missing women rights’ activists--two more were allegedly abducted this week--have sparked international reactions, with many public figures and organizations demanding information about the fate of these women who have gone missing…
Single suicide bomber killed US troops and Afghans in ISIS-K attack at Kabul airport, Pentagon finds
By Matt Seyler - ABC News
The attack at Hamid Karzai International Airport last August that killed 13 U.S. service members and at least 170 Afghans was the result of a single explosive device detonated by an ISIS-K terrorist, a months-long military investigation has found, it was announced Friday…
UN Cannot Access Aid Money in Afghan Banks: UNDP
By Amina Hakimi - TOLOnews
The UN organizations are unable to use their funds--in US dollars--currently in accounts at Da Afghanistan Bank, because they cannot be converted into Afghan currency, Reuters reported…
Taliban faces security challenge from 'Islamic State'
By Deutsche Welle News
The Taliban promised to bring peace – but now that they are the government of Afghanistan, the war against the 'Islamic State' group is just beginning. There has been a series of attacks by 'IS' and bloody reprisals by the Taliban.
Pakistan's Baluch Separatists Losing Their Afghan Sanctuary
By Abubakar Siddique
For years Afghanistan was seen as place of refuge for Baluch separatists seeking to evade Islamabad's crackdown on their homeland in Pakistan. But following the return of the Islamist Taliban to power in Kabul, members of the secular groups fear they have lost their sanctuary…
Afghanistan: Central Asian states maintaining crucial electricity supplies
With Afghanistan grappling with a humanitarian crisis this winter, the Taliban government in Kabul has stopped paying key electricity suppliers in Central Asia. Despite the growing arrears, officials in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are helping keep the lights on in Afghanistan.
International News Relating to Afghanistan
Muttaqi: 'Progress' Being Made Toward Intl Recognition
By Zabi Aqeel - TOLOnews
Amir Khan Muttaqi, acting foreign minister, said the Islamic Emirate is gaining progress toward gaining international recognition. In an interview with AFP, Muttaqi said talks with other countries are taking place….
UN can’t use its $135 million in Afghanistan bank: Al Dardari
By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press
The United Nations has said that they have up to $135 million in Afghanistan International Bank (AIB) but cannot convert it into local currency (Afghani) to use inside Afghanistan…
Before you go:
To support our work, become a monthly subscriber or donate here.
All our funds go toward caseworkers supporting evacuations, the evacuations themselves, and/or operational costs to keep this mission going.
Check out our other content:
Whispers: The best open source intelligence and analysis on Afghanistan. (weekly- members only)
Anatomy of a Crisis: Pragmatic thought leadership on disaster resilience and crisis management from a variety of experts. (weekly- members only)
Afghan Voices: Powerful Afghan voices making a difference in Afghanistan and around the world. (biweekly- all subscribers)
Changemakers: Changemakers committed to evacuation and resettlement efforts. (biweekly- all subscribers)
We won’t forget our allies.
We believe in sharing many opinions and looking from many different perspectives. This means we do not necessarily agree with everything shared in the news or contributor articles, but we believe it’s important to treat other perspectives with respect and to consider their point of view.