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Daily Evacuation Brief | February 3, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region
Welcome to the Daily Evacuation Brief. For more in-depth intelligence analysis and crisis research, please subscribe to our members-only journal, which comes out twice a week: Whispers & Anatomy of a Crisis.
LAST 24 HOURS:
· An evacuation flight scheduled to take off from Kabul was canceled. The cancellation was attributed to the Taliban but has not been confirmed yet.
· Public universities in warmer areas reopened. Attendance was reportedly very limited, though with some women spotted among the student body. Few details are available yet, in part because students were ordered by authorities not to engage with the press. The remaining public universities will reopen later this month.
· The US plans to deploy troops to Poland, Germany, and Romania over the Ukraine crisis.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
· Sources indicate there is the potential for a retaliatory attack against Pakistani military forces over a strike against the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement leader. It is being reported that Afghans may take part in the attacks.
CONTEXT: A rift continues to widen between the Kandahari and Haqqani factions of the Taliban. Although fighting has not openly broken out yet, there is a clear line of demarcation and loyalties are being tested. Furthermore, the Uzbek and Tajik Taliban are rumored to be alienated and untrusted.
ANALYSIS: If the National Resistance Front is to present a challenge to Kabul, they will need to be successful in forging alliances among the Uzbek and Tajik populations. If these efforts, which are currently underway, produce fruit, they may be able to effectively contest the Taliban in the North. Any campaigns they would be able to mount outside of the North would likely be temporary affairs with limited objectives and would be oriented towards clusters of Taliban forces rather than capturing and holding population centers. Such a move would likely unite the Kandaharis and Haqqanis and force them to set their differences aside in a face-off with the North. Regional support, as well as Russian and Chinese influence, will have a huge impact on any potential internal conflict that arises.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 98.69 AFN (as of 3 FEB 2022)
By Radio Free Europe
The Taliban reportedly has freed two local journalists from the private Ariana TV two days after they were detained for unknown reasons…
By William Byrd Ph.D. – US Institute for Peace
Although economic and humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan continue to deteriorate, the Taliban have taken some positive steps toward financial stability by publishing a fiscally responsible three-month budget and raising considerable amounts of domestic revenue — especially through customs duties, which have risen with a crackdown on corruption…
By Al Jazeera
Some public universities have opened in Afghanistan for the first time since the Taliban seized power in August, with a trickle of women attending classes…
By Afghan Times
Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) leader, Manzor Ahmad Pahsteen’s convoy became under attack on Wednesday in Zhob city of Baluchistan. The PTM accuses the Pakistan military of conducting the attack. The attack left one person wounded.…
Students who won scholarships provided by the Indian government protested in front of the Indian embassy in Kabul, criticizing Delhi for not considering their situation…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
By Al Jazeera
International banks can transfer money to Afghanistan for humanitarian purposes, and aid groups are allowed to pay teachers and healthcare workers at state-run institutions without fear of breaching sanctions on the Taliban, the United States said on Wednesday…
By Natasha Bertrand, Barbara Starr and Jeremy Herb – CNN
President Joe Biden has formally approved the deployment of 3,000 US troops to Poland, Germany and Romania, the Pentagon announced Wednesday, in a move to bolster NATO countries in Eastern Europe with tens of thousands of Russian troops amassed along Ukraine's border…
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Changemakers: Changemakers committed to evacuation and resettlement efforts. (biweekly- all subscribers)
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