Daily Evacuation Brief | February 13, 2022
Daily Evacuation Brief | February 13, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region powered by Operation Snow Leopard
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LAST 24 HOURS
An earthquake measuring 4.8 magnitude was reported near Kunduz. Casualties or damage have not been reported.
Several high-profile people detained by the Taliban were released, including foreign aid workers, journalists, and a noted woman activist.
Protests calling for the release of female activists, presumably detained by the Taliban, took place in Kabul. The Taliban have promised to investigate the matter but their fates are currently unknown.
An attack on a former Afghan official’s home resulted in the death of the official’s son and a bodyguard and his wife was wounded. Taliban officials claimed it was a domestic issue and are investigating the incident.
The US and Russia continued the evacuations of their diplomatic posts in Ukraine as talks appear to have stalled.
NEXT 24 HOURS
Expect several announcements from the Taliban further explaining any agreements worked out in Geneva with regards to humanitarian aid.
Sources report more political prisoners may be released on Sunday.
All eyes are on Ukraine. There has been no deescalation as Russia’s military exercises continue and diplomatic channels fail to produce results. If Russia invades, it will likely be within the week.
THREAT ANALYSIS
POTENTIAL UKRAINE FALLOUT IN CENTRAL ASIA
CONTEXT: With the possibility of an invasion looming, the US and NATO warned Russia of sanctions, which could cripple the Russian economy. Preparations have been made over the last month to assist Europe with much needed energy resources should Russian exports into Europe be halted. Some of these preparations have been coordinating with Gulf State nations for greater production and with US energy companies for assistance with meeting shortfalls.
In addition, global financial institutions have been provided unclassified briefs of the sanctions which detail the scope and severity. The first two sanctions, barring Russia from using the SWIFT financial system and potentially restricting Russia’s access to the dollar, would have an immediate effect on Russia and her allies. The sanctions are also expected to have a massive destabilizing effect on the CSTO member states. Many of these states face internal political divisions which mirror Ukraine and Crimea, and several, such as Kazakhstan, also have frail political infrastructure which is subject to economic turmoil.
Should the sanctions be imposed, Afghanistan could be facing threats of instability on its Northern border.
ANALYSIS: Should the invasion occur; we believe the strongest sanctions will be levied almost immediately. Depending on how far the sanctions are extended, there may be an immediate effect felt in the CSTO states. However, our analysis suggests it will take approximately a month for these states to see export orders dissolve and revenues drop. If that happens, inflation will skyrocket, and internal reserves will be exhausted rapidly. Any aid destined for Afghanistan will almost certainly halt. The region could experience multiple instances of instability which could range from internal political change to cross-border conflict. Finally, an invasion of Ukraine will take attention off Afghanistan and hurt both evacuation and relief efforts.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 92.06 AFN (as of 13 FEB 2022)
Afghan News
Detained Journalists working with UN released in Kabul
By Ariana News
Two detained journalists in Afghanistan who had been working with the United Nations were released on Friday along with…
Anger over US 9/11 compensation declaration
By Deutche Welle
Afghan protesters expressed anger on Saturday following the US decision to use $7 billion (€6.15 billion) in Afghan assets for…
Afghan woman protester detained by Taliban freed
By The New Arab
An Afghan woman protester who went missing after taking part in a rally against the Taliban had been detained by…
Regional News
UN calls for expanding Afghanistan's transport ties using Iran's infrastructure
By IRNA
Secretary-General's Special Representative for Afghanistan, Head of United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Hideo Ikebe in a meeting…
Afghans Evacuees Stationed in US Military Bases of UAE Call for Their Withdrawal
By The Afghanistan Times
Dozens of Afghans who are stranded in the US military bases in the UAE set demonstrations in which they urged the administration of…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
By Mostafa Rachwani and Ben Doherty – The Guardian
The federal government faces a potential high court challenge to its plans to forcibly send an Afghan Hazara asylum seeker back to…
Islamic Emirate: Geneva Call Meetings a Success
BY TOLO News
Latifullah Hakimi, head of the delegation of the Islamic Emirate for the Switzerland summit (Geneva Call Summit), said that the delegation had…
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Postscript.
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