Daily Evacuation Brief | February 11, 2022
Daily Evacuation Brief | February 11, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region
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LAST 24 HOURS:
The Geneva meeting between Taliban delegates and members of the international community concluded with the Taliban calling for an end to sanctions.
United Kingdom officials traveled to Kabul to hold talks about aid with the Taliban.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
Russian military exercises will continue near the Ukraine border.
THREAT ANALYSIS
When Will Recognition Come?
CONTEXT: Select states have quietly laid the groundwork to recognize the Taliban with Russia and China driving the initiative forward. Russia is feeling pressure from CSTO member states to normalize relations, and China has its eyes on lucrative mining concessions and other economic projects. The ancillary benefits of embarrassing the US and NATO are attractive as well. China has been advocating most actively on behalf of the Taliban, most recently including them in bilateral discussions with Pakistan as a potential addition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Other states seem poised to grant full recognition but are likely waiting on China and Russia to make a definitive move.
ANALYSIS: Based on the recent summit between Russia and China, our analysis suggests Taliban recognition will be a coordinated affair. Both have likely canvassed their vassal states and prepared their announcement. When they announce, they will seek to portray themselves as beneficent leaders and will be followed quickly by a slew of other states’ announcements. It will raise a quandary in the United Nations and among other international organizations, particularly in the financial world.
It is unlikely recognition will be given prior to the final ceremonies for the Winter Olympics in Beijing given that the timing would tarnish China’s reputation and add to frictions manifesting there. Therefore, it is our assessment that China and Russia will jointly recognize the Taliban and the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan soon after February 20,2022.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 93.41 AFN (as of 11 FEB 2022)
Afghan News
Turkey to resume visa issuance in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif
By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press
The Foreign Ministry of Turkey in a statement said that visa issuance for people in the Afghan capital Kabul and the northern Balkh province will…
‘We have never given up’: how Afghan women are demanding their education under the Taliban
By Emma Graham-Harrison – The Guardian
When the Taliban reached Parveen Tokhi’s home province of Zabul in mid-August and asked to use her school as a…
Alumni of American University Afghanistan Still in Danger
By Jason Criss Howk – ClearanceJobs
As Kabul began to crumble last August, the most senior U.S. government leaders promised the leaders of American University of Afghanistan that they would evacuate the…
Regional News
China, Pakistan Mull Afghan Membership in CPEC
By TOLO News
The inclusion of Afghanistan in CPEC was discussed during the visit of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to Beijing, where he held talks with…
Government ignored pleas from Liberal MP on Afghan chaos, emails show
By Bryan Passifiume – The Province
While panic filled the streets of Kabul last summer as the Taliban consolidated their brutally swift takeover, a prominent Liberal MP was told…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
USAID Resumes 'Off-Budget' Activities in Afghanistan
By TOLOnews
The office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said in a tweet that the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has resumed some "off-budget" activities to help the Afghan people…
By Project Syndicate
The economic and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has worsened since the abrupt halt in foreign aid following…
UK's Johnson says next few days 'most dangerous moment' in Ukraine crisis
By Reuters
The next few days could be the most dangerous moment in Europe's biggest security crisis for…
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