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Daily Evacuation Brief | February 10, 2022

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Daily Evac Brief

Daily Evacuation Brief | February 10, 2022

Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region

Feb 10, 2022
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Daily Evacuation Brief | February 10, 2022

afghandigest.substack.com

Welcome to the Daily Evacuation Brief. For more in-depth intelligence analysis and crisis research, please subscribe to our members-only journal, which comes out twice a week: Whispers (Mondays) & Anatomy of a Crisis (Wednesdays).

Threat Analysis

LAST 24 HOURS: 

  • Meetings continued in Geneva between the Taliban and members of the international community. The main focus was on humanitarian aid, although several backroom discussions were held to press for the highly desired international recognition.

  • French President Emmanuel Macron met separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He announced that a path to deescalate the Ukraine crisis was possible, but would take months. In the meantime, Russian warships were ordered to the Black Sea. All involved parties will be watching closely as Russia begins military training near the Ukrainian border on Thursday. Training is scheduled for 10 days and may be used as cover for a strike. 

NEXT 24 HOURS:  

  • Although we have no reports of additional threats within Afghanistan, the crackdown on potential evacuees appears to be ongoing based on the observed activity in Mazar and Kabul.

 European leaders are expected to hold additional talks on the Ukraine situation.

Intel Analysis

Cracking the Door Open

CONTEXT:  On 2 February, the US Treasury Department updated their online FAQs with line item 958 (Counter Terrorism Sanctions). The line item now permits the transfer of funds/aid to the Taliban and Haqqani Network under the auspices of Humanitarian License (General Licenses 14, 19). We could find no evidence that an official announcement about the policy change has been made.

Although on the surface this simply seems like a reaction to the reality on the ground and a step toward more easily facilitating the transfer aid, in the longer term it could impact discussions on the Taliban’s legitimacy. Taken in conjunction with recent remarks made by the US CENTCOM Commander, it appears the US government is inching towards eventual recognition of the Taliban. It is not possible for the US government to have failed to notice the uptick in ISIS recruits reportedly heading to the country. The government may be easing restrictions to prepare for a fight.

ANALYSIS:  In the near term, the move lends credence to the Taliban’s call for recognition as the legitimate government of Afghanistan and will be referenced in discussions at the UN and elsewhere. It may have a detrimental effect on hardline negotiations concerning respect for human rights, gender equality, religious freedoms, et al.

Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 93.41 AFN (as of 10 FEB 2022)


Afghan News

There is finally video evidence that US-trained Afghan soldiers may be fighting for the Taliban

By Max Hauptman – Task & Purpose

For anyone wondering how the Taliban plans to fight, a recent propaganda video showing a pair of seemingly well-trained fighters provides…

Taliban urges Afghan professors in exile to return to country

By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press

Ministry of Higher Education of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan asked public university lecturers who have lately left Afghanistan to return…

UN Reiterates Concerns Over Missing Afghan Women Activists

By Rajab Taieb – TOLO News

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) as well as the UN Secretary General’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, continue to…


Regional News

Uzbekistan warns of security risks of failing to prevent Afghan humanitarian crisis

By Eurasianet

Uzbekistan has urged the international community to consider engaging with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and to provide the country with…

Pakistan’s ‘good Taliban-bad Taliban’ strategy backfires, posing regional risks

By Leela Jacinto – France24

For decades, Pakistan pursued a policy of supporting the Afghan Taliban while cracking down on the Pakistani Taliban, the Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP). With the Taliban in power in…


International News Relating to Afghanistan

Dispute Over Afghanistan’s UN Seat Continues

By Rajab Taieb – TOLO News

Afghanistan’s permanent mission to the UN on Wednesday issued a statement saying that Mohammad Wali Naeemi, deputy representative of the mission, has become…

British man among two suspected ISIS recruits caught trying to enter Afghanistan

By Laura O’Callaghan – News UK

A British man was among two suspected ISIS fighters seized by the Taliban at a border crossing in northern Afghanistan, according to…

Afghan father evacuated to Canada faces potential deportation by CBSA

By Janice Dickson – The Globe and Mail

Sarina Faizy breathed a massive sigh of relief when her family was evacuated from Afghanistan almost six months ago after urging the Canadian government to…


Before you go:

To support our work, become a monthly subscriber or donate here.

All our funds go toward caseworkers supporting evacuations, the evacuations themselves, and/or operational costs to keep this mission going.

Check out our other content:

  • Whispers: The best open source intelligence and analysis on Afghanistan. (weekly- members only)

  • Anatomy of a Crisis: Pragmatic thought leadership on disaster resilience and crisis management from a variety of experts. (weekly- members only)

  • Afghan Voices: Powerful Afghan voices making a difference in Afghanistan and around the world. (biweekly- all subscribers)

  • Allies in Action: Allies in Action who are committed to evacuation and resettlement efforts. (biweekly- all subscribers)

We won’t forget our allies.


Postscript.

We believe in sharing many opinions and looking from many different perspectives. This means we do not necessarily agree with everything shared in the news or contributor articles, but we believe it’s important to treat other perspectives with respect and to consider their point of view.

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Daily Evacuation Brief | February 10, 2022

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