Daily Evacuation Brief | February 10, 2022
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Daily Evacuation Brief | February 10, 2022
Daily news about Afghanistan and the surrounding region
Welcome to the Daily Evacuation Brief. For more in-depth intelligence analysis and crisis research, please subscribe to our members-only journal, which comes out twice a week: Whispers (Mondays) & Anatomy of a Crisis (Wednesdays).
Threat Analysis
LAST 24 HOURS:
Meetings continued in Geneva between the Taliban and members of the international community. The main focus was on humanitarian aid, although several backroom discussions were held to press for the highly desired international recognition.
French President Emmanuel Macron met separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He announced that a path to deescalate the Ukraine crisis was possible, but would take months. In the meantime, Russian warships were ordered to the Black Sea. All involved parties will be watching closely as Russia begins military training near the Ukrainian border on Thursday. Training is scheduled for 10 days and may be used as cover for a strike.
NEXT 24 HOURS:
Although we have no reports of additional threats within Afghanistan, the crackdown on potential evacuees appears to be ongoing based on the observed activity in Mazar and Kabul.
European leaders are expected to hold additional talks on the Ukraine situation.
Intel Analysis
Cracking the Door Open
CONTEXT: On 2 February, the US Treasury Department updated their online FAQs with line item 958 (Counter Terrorism Sanctions). The line item now permits the transfer of funds/aid to the Taliban and Haqqani Network under the auspices of Humanitarian License (General Licenses 14, 19). We could find no evidence that an official announcement about the policy change has been made.
Although on the surface this simply seems like a reaction to the reality on the ground and a step toward more easily facilitating the transfer aid, in the longer term it could impact discussions on the Taliban’s legitimacy. Taken in conjunction with recent remarks made by the US CENTCOM Commander, it appears the US government is inching towards eventual recognition of the Taliban. It is not possible for the US government to have failed to notice the uptick in ISIS recruits reportedly heading to the country. The government may be easing restrictions to prepare for a fight.
ANALYSIS: In the near term, the move lends credence to the Taliban’s call for recognition as the legitimate government of Afghanistan and will be referenced in discussions at the UN and elsewhere. It may have a detrimental effect on hardline negotiations concerning respect for human rights, gender equality, religious freedoms, et al.
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 93.41 AFN (as of 10 FEB 2022)
Afghan News
There is finally video evidence that US-trained Afghan soldiers may be fighting for the Taliban
By Max Hauptman – Task & Purpose
For anyone wondering how the Taliban plans to fight, a recent propaganda video showing a pair of seemingly well-trained fighters provides…
Taliban urges Afghan professors in exile to return to country
By Najibullah Lalzoy – Khaama Press
Ministry of Higher Education of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan asked public university lecturers who have lately left Afghanistan to return…
UN Reiterates Concerns Over Missing Afghan Women Activists
By Rajab Taieb – TOLO News
The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) as well as the UN Secretary General’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, continue to…
Regional News
Uzbekistan warns of security risks of failing to prevent Afghan humanitarian crisis
By Eurasianet
Uzbekistan has urged the international community to consider engaging with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and to provide the country with…
Pakistan’s ‘good Taliban-bad Taliban’ strategy backfires, posing regional risks
By Leela Jacinto – France24
For decades, Pakistan pursued a policy of supporting the Afghan Taliban while cracking down on the Pakistani Taliban, the Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP). With the Taliban in power in…
International News Relating to Afghanistan
Dispute Over Afghanistan’s UN Seat Continues
By Rajab Taieb – TOLO News
Afghanistan’s permanent mission to the UN on Wednesday issued a statement saying that Mohammad Wali Naeemi, deputy representative of the mission, has become…
British man among two suspected ISIS recruits caught trying to enter Afghanistan
By Laura O’Callaghan – News UK
A British man was among two suspected ISIS fighters seized by the Taliban at a border crossing in northern Afghanistan, according to…
Afghan father evacuated to Canada faces potential deportation by CBSA
By Janice Dickson – The Globe and Mail
Sarina Faizy breathed a massive sigh of relief when her family was evacuated from Afghanistan almost six months ago after urging the Canadian government to…
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Postscript.
We believe in sharing many opinions and looking from many different perspectives. This means we do not necessarily agree with everything shared in the news or contributor articles, but we believe it’s important to treat other perspectives with respect and to consider their point of view.