Daily Evacuation Brief | December 2, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
HERAT CLASHES REPORTED – After the assassination of at least 6 Shiites in Herat City, there have been reports of continuous gunfire in Herat City. Taliban officials initially claimed the clashes involved cells of ISIS-K but follow-up reporting on social media suggests the clashes may involve Resistance forces. The gunfire continued into the evening hours and local eyewitnesses have reported significant Taliban vehicular activity in and around the city. The late reporting about possible Resistance forces engaging with the Taliban does not appear to be credible at this time and our analysis indicates that ISIS-K is the more likely combatant. Several protests were filmed in Herat City immediately after the assassinations were made public. Protestors appeared to be angry with the Taliban over the lack of security.
PAKISTAN CONTEMPLATING CROSS BORDER STRIKES – Sources in Islamabad say that Pakistan’s patience is at an end and that contingency operations to strike TTP targets in Afghanistan have been ordered up by the caretaker regime. The reporting coincides with a strongly-worded diplomatic note to the Taliban that had recently been delivered which warned Kabul of a ‘strong response’ should another attack originate from within Afghanistan. The source said that Islamabad had exhausted all avenues of trying to convince the Taliban to stop sheltering the TTP groups and that consensus had been achieved for military strikes should they be needed. The last official strikes took place in April 2022, but several targeted assassinations have been recorded in Afghanistan’s Eastern Provinces since then that were rumored to have been ordered by Islamabad. Our analysis indicates that should troops begin repositioning to Western laager sites, this could indicate that cross-border operations may be imminent.
SUPREME COURT RULING ON AFGHAN REFUGEES IN PAKISTAN AND WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT – The 3 member panel of Pakistan’s Supreme Court that heard the petition seeking a restraining order against the caretaker regime’s deportation program concluded that Pakistan was indeed obligated to observe the United Nation’s conventions that protect the rights of refugees. Basically, the panel was unable to rule on the petition and explained that it would require additional testimony and time to evaluate some of the constitutional questions raised in the brief. The court adjourned and announced the intention to hold another hearing next week. A recommendation was also made to seat more Justices for the next hearing but it was not clear if that would happen. This petition was somewhat narrow in scope and focused on those Afghans who hold Proof of Residence, Afghan Citizens Cards, UNHCR Asylum Seeker Applications, and Pre-Screening Slips issued by either the SHARP or SEHAR NGOs. There is another petition related to Afghan Refugees that was also filed and a hearing is reportedly scheduled in that case as well. However, we do not have the details of that filing.
ISIS-K RELEASES NEW VIDEO TARGETING CHINA – ISIS-K released a new 60-minute video on its social media sites calling for jihad against China and the liberation of the Xinjiang Province. The video mentions the struggles of members of the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) to assist the Uyghur people in China. China has continually harped on the threats it faces from ETIM and many believe that Beijing’s generous security assistance aid provided to the Taliban is focused solely on keeping ETIM and other threats contained within Afghanistan. The attack on a Hotel in Kabul in December 2022 that was frequented by Chinese Nationals was the last major operation against China by ISIS-K in Afghanistan. Sources in Kabul say that ISIS-K has made it known it was unhappy with the Taliban’s acceptance of assistance to set up security cameras across the country and few are under the illusion that a new anti-China operation is far from happening.
NEXT 24 HOURS
SECURITY OPERATIONS IN HERAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE – There is little doubt that Taliban forces in Herat City will assume a heightened security posture today. It was not clear if they had successfully neutralized whoever they engaged in yesterday’s gun battles across the city. As in past situations involving both ISKP and Resistance forces, citizens in Herat City can expect to see house searches and additional security personnel at checkpoints throughout the city. At-risk Afghans should avoid any Taliban troop concentrations of vehicles or personnel.
The Afghanistan Taliban turned back several fuel tankers at the border for reportedly attempting to deliver low-grade fuel to the country.
Tehran called for a new ceasefire hours after the expiration of the current ceasefire in Gaza. The Foreign Minister called on US and Israeli authorities to institute a new ceasefire, on humanitarian grounds.
The US Country Report on Terrorism named Iran as the top supporter of terrorism across the world for another year.
An internal counter-intelligence probe within the Counter-Terrorism Department netted two corrupt agents in a case involving the looted possessions of a former police official.
Militants fired on a polio vaccination team in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa yesterday, killing 1 policeman who was charged with providing security for the team.
Interior Minister shying away from involving former military leaders in legal cases. Says that summoning the former officers’ will not benefit the country.
By Muhammad Nauman Akhter - Modern Diplomacy
On September 6, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacked military check posts in Chitral district in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan government claimed that the attack was perpetrated by TTP militants from Afghanistan, having complete impunity in the matters whatever they do in the territorial jurisdiction of Pakistan. In the last decade, Pakistan inflicted numerous crushing defeats on TTP members. Unfortunately, it resurged again in 2018 and intensified attacks on Pakistan security personnel. Its rebirth is accredited to the factors which are mostly not debated in the mainstream media.
By AMU TV
Six people, including two clerics, were killed in an attack by unknown gunmen in Jebril area in Herat City on Friday afternoon…
By Ariana News
As the winter season approaches, most needy families are worried about the worsening of their living…
By Sanjay Sethi & Johanna Bankston - EuroNews
The arts and cultural sector in Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented crisis, as the simple act of artistic expression has now effectively been criminalised by…
By Pakistan Observer
As a three-judge bench of the Supreme Court on Friday took up a petition seeking restraining orders against the caretaker government’s decision to…
By Kamran Yousaf - The Express Tribune
Pakistan has sent a clear message to the Afghan Taliban government that any future attacks having links to the neighbouring country would evoke a…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
The embassy announced via its social media platform X this Thursday, specifying that the funds will assist earthquake victims in Herat province and…
By Ayaz Gul - VOA
Afghanistan’s Taliban government announced Friday that China had formally accepted its ambassador to Beijing, hailing the move as an “important chapter” in…
THE DAILY WTF
By Jake Welch - The National Pulse
Germany has recently accepted 25 Sharia judges from Afghanistan as part of a larger resettlement program introduced by the…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 89.17 AFN (as of 2 DEC 2023)