Daily Evacuation Brief | December 14, 2022

Dec 14, 2022

LAST 24 HOURS

PAKISTAN PLANNING MILITARY OPERATIONS ALONG BORDER – Pakistan’s military announced an upcoming military operation along the border that is intended to target terrorist forces and the TTP in particular. General Munir, the newly appointed Chief of Pakistan’s armed forces met with his Commanders in Rawalpindi this past week and hammered out a campaign plan that is rumored to include strikes in Afghanistan. At this time, it is not clear if these operations have been discussed/coordinated with the Taliban. As has been previously reported, both sides of the border reinforced their military forces significantly after the artillery duel at Spin Boldak-Chaman border crossing killed and injured several non-combatants. Depending on the extent of Pakistan’s military operations, there is potential for an escalation of the conflict that may draw in the Taliban regulars. We do not currently know where the focus of these operations will concentrate and are not able to provide localized warnings to at-risk Afghans who may be sheltering along the border or intending to cross. Even if the operational actions have been cleared with Kabul, local Taliban Commanders have exhibited a propensity to act of their own volition. Bottom line – the border areas will be dangerous and unpredictable in the near term. At-risk Afghans who may be in the vicinity are encouraged to remain alert and aware of the upcoming operations.
ISIS-K CLAIMS RESPONSIBILITY FOR HOTEL ATTACK – Video of the hotel which was targeted in a bomb/gun attack on Monday was circulated on several pro-ISIS-K social media channels. The terror group claimed they orchestrated the attack and had purposefully targeted ‘Chinese Communists and Taliban elements’. Details about the attack and its aftermath continue to emerge but a clear accounting of casualties remains in dispute. China has reputedly urged citizens to leave the country and intends to put a skeleton diplomatic team in place until security improves.
UN SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR AFGHANISTAN SAYS TIME/PATIENCE IS RUNNING OUT FOR TALIBAN – Markus Potzel told reporters on Tuesday that the international community’s patience was nearing the end for the Taliban’s de facto regime. A lack of progress on the original stipulations of the Doha Accord and a retrenchment of hard-line ultra-conservative policies akin to those implemented under the Taliban in the 1990s is eroding hope for potential future engagement. A moderate Taliban source in the Palace claims the problems are in Kandahar, not Kabul. The source went on to say that the ‘Old Guard’ who advise the Supreme Leader are unaware of the dangerous economic realities facing the country and continually ignore advice from their own Ministers.

NEXT 24 HOURS

POTENTIAL DANGER ALONG THE DURAND LINE – With Pakistan’s announcements concerning counter-terrorism operations along the border, it is likely that several areas could see violence developing soon. It is currently not known where the operations will focus and whether targets inside Afghanistan will be struck. It is also unclear if the Taliban have granted permission for the operations or if Taliban forces will respond in kind with attacks of their own. Travel plans should take into account potential border closures if things get out of hand.
PAKISTAN POLICE FORCES CONDUCTING SEARCHES FOR MILITANTS – Police in Rawalpindi have been quietly carrying out search operations in an attempt to flush out potential terror suspects. The Police have called in assistance from other Districts and have activated nearly all branches of the service for the mission. In the last twenty-four hours, they have searched: 135 homes, 63 businesses, and 4 hotels in Rawalpindi alone. Additionally, they interviewed approximately 200 people and collected their data. A source in the Pakistani Army claims that 7 have been arrested but the information has not yet been substantiated. At-risk Afghans sheltering in Rawalpindi/Islamabad should be aware of the ongoing operation. There is no word on when the searches will be completed.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

A popular soccer player is scheduled to be executed for his role in protests and was condemned for killing a Colonel of the IRGC.
Several European nations summoned the Iranian envoys in their respective capitals to register their contempt for the executions of protestors.
The Iranian currency has lost nearly 20% of its value since the protests began and looks to fall further in the next thirty days.

PAKISTAN

Sources claimed that military units have been observed, repositioning along the Western border with Afghanistan over the past two days.
Police in Rawalpindi and elsewhere have been carrying out targeted searches and may have arrested several potential terror suspects over the last twenty-four hours.

INDIA

Indian and Chinese military forces clashed last Friday in a disputed border area (Tawang sector) and several casualties were reported. Both sides have taken the precautionary measures of increasing troop levels on their respective sides while a diplomatic solution is sought.

SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS

Are Pashtuns Victims Of Their Geography? A Glimpse Of Past And Present History (Part I)

By Sher Khan Bazai - EurAsia Review

Geography is an important part of any nation and is a key factor in shaping people’s lives. The landscape, climate, and history of different places are all major factors that go into how people live their lives in a particular region. Similarly, the lives and histories of Afghans or Pashtuns are greatly influenced by their geography.

AFGHAN NEWS

We face many problems due to power cuts: Kabul residents

By Hijratullah Kakar - Pajhwok Afghan News

Many residents of Kabul city on Tuesday complained about frequent power outages, causing them problems in the cold…

Explained: What's ISIS Affiliate Islamic State Khorasan Province And Why Is It Fighting Taliban In Afghanistan?

By Madhur Sharma - Outlook

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the attack on a Chinese hotel in Afghanistan's capital Kabul on…

Further Security Measures to be Provided at the Foreign Entities in Kabul

By Nizamuddin Rezahi - Khaama Press

Over the past few weeks, several people died and many were wounded in three different terrorist attacks in…

REGIONAL NEWS

Pakistan Plans to Launch Military Operations at Afghan Border

By Saqalain Eqbal - Khaama Press

The Pakistani military official evaluated the overall security situation in light of the rise in terrorist activities, cross-border infiltration, and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and decided to conduct the…

China advises citizens in Afghanistan to leave 'as soon as possible' following hotel bombing in Kabul

By AP

China on Tuesday advised its citizens in Afghanistan to leave the country "as soon as possible," following a coordinated attack by Islamic State militants the…