Daily Evacuation Brief | December 13, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
DEADLY ATTACK IN PAKISTAN COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR KABUL AND AFGHAN REFUGEES – 6 militants used an explosive-laden truck to target a Pakistani Army checkpoint in Dera Ismail Khan. All 6 militants were killed in the incident and 23 Pakistani soldiers lost their lives. Not long after the attack, the Foreign Ministry called the Afghan charge d’affaires to appear at the Ministry where a strongly worded demarche was issued to Kabul. The group claiming credit for the Dera Ismail Khan attack (Tehrik Jihad Pakistan, TJP) is affiliated with Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP). It was not immediately clear if any Afghan nationals took part in the operation. Still, leaders in Islamabad have taken to assuming any terror operation mounted in Pakistan has its roots in Afghanistan. Several sites on social media began circulating differing accounts about possible Afghan participation but none have been verified as of yet. Sources in Islamabad say the mood is ‘ugly’ in the halls of government and that discussions about accelerating the deportation program were taking place. Another source in Rawalpindi said the military staff had been called in to analyze the attack and prepare options for a potential retaliatory strike in Afghanistan.
RUMORS OF TALKS FACILITATED BY KABUL BETWEEN TTP AND PAKISTAN – Unconfirmed reports suggest that the TTP is currently negotiating with Pakistani officials in an unidentified third country. Sources say the talks were set up by the Afghan Taliban. It was unclear if any progress had been made concerning a possible cessation of hostilities. It is difficult to assess what implications could result from these rumored talks and what effects the deadly terrorist attack yesterday may have had on potential talks.
TALIBAN ARRESTS 2 MEN AFFILIATED WITH TROUBLESOME AFGHAN AMBASSADOR TO TAJIKISTAN – 2 reputed brothers who were staying in Ambassador Mohammad Zahir Aghbar’s house in Kabul have been arrested by the Taliban and are being held on unspecified charges. Ambassador Aghbar has been the most vocal opponent of the Taliban regime from the former government and has refused to accede his post to a representative from the regime.
NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN REPRISALS FOR DERA ISMAIL KHAN TERROR ATTACK COULD BE SWIFT – Based on substantial source reporting, it seems clear that Islamabad intends to take action against the TJP and/or TTP and may do so with cross-border strikes. It is not clear where the TJP operates but many have insinuated they share safe houses with TTP militants in Afghanistan’s Eastern Provinces. At-risk Afghans in these Provinces could well see air strikes in the coming days. Also of concern are reports that the caretaker regime could accelerate the Afghan deportation operation and new roundups of Afghan nationals could soon take place in urban areas.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
Units of the IRGC conducted sizable training activities along the border with Iraq yesterday. Iran billed the exercises as counter-terrorism training operations meant to counter Sunni extremist groups.
Mohammad Khatami, the former President of Iran (97-05) claimed that average citizens are unhappy with Tehran’s rhetoric regarding the ‘West’.
The trial of 104 members of the Mujahadin-e Khalq Organization (MKO) began yesterday in Tehran. The organization was branded a terrorist group by the regime and is accused of perpetrating multiple counter-regime activities since the Revolution.
PAKISTAN
Talks between government officials and organizers of the ‘sit-ins’ that have caused issues at the Spin Boldak crossing broke down yesterday and the protestors recommenced the protest while threatening to move the demonstration into the ‘red zone’.
The death toll in the deadly bus attack in Gilgit-Baltistan rose to 11 as 2 additional passengers who were wounded in the attack succumbed to their wounds.
The Islamabad High Court acquitted former PM Nawaz Sharif in a corruption case. The court’s ruling has effectively removed the last barrier the former PM faced to stand in the upcoming elections.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Fleeing Home, Chasing Hope: The Refugee And Migrant Experience
By RFE
War. Conflict. Climate change. Economics. Persecution. Politics.
The root causes are myriad, but the tens of millions swept up in the international migration wave all share one thing in common: They left their homes, reluctantly, in search of safety or prosperity for themselves and their families.
Upwards of 300 million people are classified by the United Nations as international migrants; one in every eight migrants worldwide is a child.
AFGHAN NEWS
Taliban intelligence forces detain Afghan journalist Abdul Rahim Mohammadi
By CPJ
On December 4, Mohammadi, a reporter for the independent broadcaster Tamadon TV, responded to a summons by Taliban provincial intelligence officers in the southern city of…
By Ahmad Mukhtar - CBS News
The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions over the weekend against two Taliban regime officials in Afghanistan, accusing the men of…
Donors Pay Afghan Health Workers While Number of Female Doctors Shrinks
By Akmal Dawi - VOA
Since the Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan in 2021, the nation’s public health sector has been on life support, with foreign aid agencies…
REGIONAL NEWS
Pakistan delivers strong demarche to ‘Afghan interim Govt’ after deadly attack
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
The attack, claimed by Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan, an affiliate of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), resulted in the tragic loss of twenty-three security…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
Myanmar surpasses Afghanistan to become world’s largest opium producer following Taliban’s crackdown
By Vikrant Singh - WION
Myanmar has risen to become the world’s largest producer of opium in 2023, surpassing the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan which had…
Closed-door UNSC meeting addresses Afghan women’s concerns on Sinirlioglu’s report
By AMU TV
In a closed-door meeting held on Monday, December 11, the United Nations Security Council, chaired by Switzerland and supported by Japan and the United Arab Emirates, convened…
THE DAILY WTF
UK Ministry of Defence fined $440K for Afghan evacuation data breach
By Jonathan Greig - The Record
The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence has been fined £350,000 (about $440,000) for its failure to protect the information of Afghans who worked with…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 69.52 AFN (as of 13 DEC 2023)