Daily Evacuation Brief | August 13, 2022

Aug 13, 2022

`LAST 24 HOURS`

Rumors are spreading that the Taliban intend to establish several prisons for those suspected of belonging to the LGBT community. Kabul, Herat, Balkh, and Baghlan are the early candidates for the new detainment centers. The initiative is said to have originated in the Ministry of Vice and Virtue. These allegations have yet to be confirmed.
Severe flooding has wreaked havoc in southern and eastern Afghanistan with several primary roads blocked due to rushing waters. Agricultural projects in these districts, already decimated by previous rains, are expected to be further impacted and will create food security issues this winter.
The Taliban have changed the name of the American University of Afghanistan to the International Islamic Afghan University. The campus remains heavily guarded, and students have not been witnessed entering the facility. In early 2022, ominous rumors were circulating that TIM (formerly ETIM) and other terrorist groups were using AUAF’s facilities to attempt to develop blood agents and other chemical and biological weapons; these rumors have not been renewed.
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have signed a security cooperation agreement that would allow Uzbek advisors to train Tajik military units. The agreement is unprecedented in the history of either country, and some Central Asia analysts believe the strengthening of ties demonstrates a shared concern for instability within Afghanistan.
Sources are saying that a new provisional wing of the TTP is forming in South Waziristan. The group is based in Wadi Shikai, and Shahidullah is reputed to have been named the Commander. Source states the impetus for formation of the new militia was the recent killing of several high ranking TTP leaders in Afghanistan and that Pakistan Intelligence is aware of the group and may be supporting it with weapons and ammunition.

`NEXT 24 HOURS`

No emerging threats have been reported as of publication time.

`SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS`

Will the Taliban’s Coming Split Lead to Civil War?

By Akram Umarov – The National Interest

The ease with which the Taliban was able to remove the government of Ashraf Ghani from power created an illusion about the group’s power, consolidation, and readiness to take full control of the country. The international community expected the Taliban to stabilize Afghanistan and put the entire country under reliable control in order to establish sole power and eliminate security challenges such as terrorism and drug trafficking. However, the U.S. strike on Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri raises questions about the credibility and honesty of the movement. In the eleven months since the Taliban came to power, the group has faced a number of serious internal problems, including increased factional clashes over engagement with foreign partners, the rise of Pashtun nationalism and the exit of ethnic minorities from the movement, and its inability to stabilize the state administration system.