Daily Evacuation Brief | April 6, 2023

Apr 06, 2023

HEAVY FIGHTING IN HERAT, SITUATION CONFUSED – Significant clashes have been reported in Herat over the last 14 hours. The violence began in the 9th Police District (Arab Quarter) where gunfire and five large explosions were heard. It quickly spread to the 11th Police District where the gunfire became more intense and at least eleven explosions were captured on film. The Taliban announced that it was conducting a security operation against ISIS-K but multiple competing theories arose after observers began reporting on the fighting. The three dominant theories being advanced on news and social media sites are:
- The Taliban were facing off against the Resistance forces of Ismail Khan and Marshal Dostum.
- The fighting involves a Taliban Commander (Mullah Daud) and agents of the Taliban Intelligence Service (GDI).
- An extremely well-armed ISIS-K cell is directly challenging the Taliban in the city.
It is not clear which of these scenarios may be accurate at this time. However, significant clashes continued throughout the night and several casualties have been reported. It is impossible to tell which side the dead and wounded belong to. There are also reports of several non-combatant casualties who were caught in crossfire situations.
RUSSIA ANNOUNCES ANOTHER HIGH-LEVEL MEETING OVER AFGHANISTAN, TALIBAN NOT LIKELY TO BE INVITED – The Russian special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov announced a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the ‘group of five’ (states neighboring Afghanistan) will take place in Samarkand on 13 April. The Taliban objected to the meeting through its political office in Qatar and demanded that an invitation be extended to the regime. Many observers have stated that an invitation for the regime was unlikely.
KANDAHAR OR KABUL, THE POWER IS SHIFTING – With the recent announcement that the Taliban’s mouthpiece, Zabihullah Mujahid, would be moving his offices to Kandahar, many are concerned the Supreme Leader is attempting to shift the capital to his hometown. These moves are likely frustrating regional leaders as they are perceived as a means of Pashtunification of the regime. For more on this phenomenon, we suggest readers scroll down to AMU TV’s excellent article on the subject.
BAR ON WOMEN’S EMPLOYMENT MAY BE NATIONAL POLICY SOON – After the Taliban banned female employees from working in the humanitarian sector, it was reported that on 4 April at least 20 female employees were removed from their roles at a Gas plant in Jawzjan. Many are concerned that the sackings are the first round of a nationwide policy to remove women from all places of work.
TALIBAN HALT COMMODITY IMPORTS – The Ministry of Agriculture announced a ban on poultry meat and eggs being brought into the country. The ban is supposed to coincide with an agreement between the regime and poultry producers to freeze all domestic prices for 90 days. It is not clear if this will be adhered to and what the economic ramifications may be.

NEXT 24 HOURS

HERAT SECURITY SITUATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE – Sporadic firing continued throughout Wednesday night and into the early morning hours on Thursday. Taliban security vehicles have been reportedly rushing around the city at high rates of speed all night long. The activity suggests that additional fighting may continue on Thursday and residents are cautioned to remain off the streets until the situation becomes clearer.
NIMRUZ SEARCHES CONTINUING – After a reputed counter-ISIS operation in the capital that reportedly caused many casualties, Taliban security forces are said to be planning more home searches on Thursday. Local Commanders were waiting for reinforcements from Herat, Kandahar, and the border posts before proceeding. Some of the reinforcements were expected to arrive late Wednesday night but the fighting in Herat is said to have caused the column headed to Nimruz to turn back. At-risk Afghans living in Zaranj are encouraged to avoid Taliban patrols/checkpoints if at all possible and to be prepared for enhanced searches.

REGIONAL ROUNDUP

IRAN

The supreme leader made a statement at a gathering that ‘Westerners hate Iranian women…’ and ‘...do not respect their rights at all.’
The regime admitted it had arrested the parents and brother of a protestor (Javad Heydari) who was killed by security forces in September of 2022. It is not clear what the family is charged with.
A respected Iranian Professor slammed the regime during a panel discussion and claimed that most Iranians do not want the annihilation of Israel.

PAKISTAN

Former PM, Imran Khan threatens the government over elections and warns of retaliation if the elections in Punjab do not take place in accordance with the recent Supreme Court rulings.
In a bit of good economic news, exports to Afghanistan have increased by nearly 20% over the last eight months.
Security forces announced they had killed a TTP Commander (Jan Muhammad - aka Chargh) in an operation conducted in South Waziristan on Wednesday. 1 Pakistani soldier was killed and 4 others were wounded in the operation.

SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS

Al-Qaeda's Looming Threat: Are We Looking Over the Wrong Horizon?

By Sara Harmouch - Lawfare

As the world watches Russia’s war in Ukraine, events in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia are heating up. A dozen years after the death of Osama bin Laden, his dreams and plans of another attack against the United States—with effects that would far exceed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks—may be close to coming true, and an “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism strategy might not be the solution.

AFGHAN NEWS

Is the Taliban setting up Kandahar as the country’s capital?

By AMU TV

Mujahid told Amu on Wednesday that the decision was due to “the leader’s presence” in Kandahar but that some of his colleagues will continue to work out of…

Withdrawal Ceiling Increases in Private Banks

By TOLO News

The Central Bank on Tuesday announced an increase in the withdrawal ceiling in private banks from 30,000 Afs in the…

Afghanistan: 20 female employees of state-owned firm sacked in Jawzjan

By AMU TV

A letter, a copy of which was seen by Amu, sent to the enterprise by the Taliban has ordered the removal of 52 staff members, including 20 women employees, and has…

REGIONAL NEWS

'Not A Problem But A Disaster': Afghan Canal A Test For Taliban Ties In Water-Stressed Central Asia

By Chris Rickleton - RFE

Two of Kabul’s neighbors to the north, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, chose a different route, putting the hard-line group’s fractious history with the…

Neighborly headwinds for the Taliban

By The Christian Science Monitor

And in one sign that the Taliban’s violent reversal of rights for girls and women in Afghanistan is resonating poorly, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have opened their schools to Afghan girls…