LAST 24 HOURS
UN BOMBSHELL IGNITES A FIRESTORM OVER RECOGNITION TALK – After Deputy Secretary General, Amina Mohammed announced that a meeting had been set in May to discuss the Afghanistan situation and that recognition of the Taliban would be on the agenda, near universal condemnation erupted from the Afghan diaspora and other international organizations. The UN had to clarify her comments and a spokesman later followed up with the press to explain the May meeting would attempt to “...put us back on the pathway to recognition…”. He went on to explain it would be a qualified pathway that would have conditions that would need to be met. While the knee-jerk reaction is understandable, it is important to consider that recognition is the strongest leverage the UN and the international community possess and a better thought-out approach is needed. We assess it would be highly unlikely that women’s rights, an inclusive government, and other stipulations that have continually been announced by neighbors and the international community would not be chief among those conditions.
US OVERSIGH HEARINGS CAUSE AN UPROAR – Wedged in between all the political gamesmanship in the US House oversight committee hearings on Wednesday was a warning from the SIGAR Chief that economic aid being supplied to Afghanistan lacks oversight and may be going to the Taliban. The news is not new to Afghans and those who have been following the crisis, but it will likely be a point of contention going forward and there are already some calls to cancel the economic aid in total. The hearings do not seem as if they will prove to be productive and have degenerated into partisanship with Democrats trying to deflect blame for the debacle and Republicans attempting to crucify Biden for the botched withdrawal. The US State Department will likely come up as the biggest loser out of the hearings as it has repeatedly failed to adequately account for budgetary items and can’t seem to comply with even simple requests for information.
UNEXPLODED MINE CLAIMS 3 LIVES IN LOGAR PROVINCE – A blast was reported in the Mohammad Agha District and 3 people were killed by a landmine that is thought to have been a remnant of the Soviet invasion. 2 of the victims were men and 1 was a woman.
PANJSHIR PROFESSOR ARRESTED, ACCUSED OF COLLABORATION WITH NRF – The Chair of the Sharia Law department at the State University of Panjshir has reputedly been arrested on charges of providing support to the National Resistance Front. It is believed he was detained on Wednesday and is being held in an undisclosed location.
NEXT 24 HOURS
TALIBAN BANNING WOMEN'S GATHERINGS DURING EID – The Taliban have issued bans on traditional gatherings for women during the holiday. The bans are said to have come from the supreme leader and imams have been instructed to relay the directives during prayers. We have only confirmed the bans will be in effect in Takhar and Baghlan at this time. However, we expect other Provinces to have received similar instructions and that Taliban security forces have been ordered to police potential infractions. The instructions also ban the playing of several games and forbid people to go to places of mourning.
POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACKS AND/OR COMBAT OPERATIONS – While the Ramadan period has passed without any major security incidents, it is possible that ISIS-K or other groups could have an operation planned to disrupt Eid and capture international attention. It is also possible that Taliban and Resistance forces could begin hostilities in earnest after Ramadan. With the recent announcement by the UN about possible recognition of the Taliban, we feel that Resistance forces will be motivated to launch operations in an attempt to display instability to the international community before the May meetings. An unconfirmed report was received which stated that ISIS-K was planning another attack on the Pakistani envoy or embassy. It is believed the envoy is staying at the Serena Hotel near the Airport since his return. This information has not been confirmed yet.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
The US Supreme Court has rejected claims of immunity from a Turkish Bank accused of avoiding sanctions on Iran and laundering billions of dollars for the regime. The case was returned to a lower court where the immunity claim will be considered under common law.
The regime pushed back against mounting criticism that it had ‘whitewashed’ the downing of a Ukrainian Airlines flight by sentencing several low-level military personnel. Tehran blamed the West for using the tragedy to fan anti-Iran flames.
The US sanctioned an additional 6 companies from Iran and China due to evidence they had traded in technical drone parts. The trade is in violation of sanctions on Iran.
PAKISTAN
Rescue workers continued to dig through debris at Torkham Gate after a landslide buried over 20 trucks and at least 3 people were killed. There were reports that additional bodies have been discovered but an official report has not yet been made.
The State Bank reported a sizable cash surplus for the first time in over two years.
3 Police and a Revenue Agent were injured when villages in Mori opened fire on them as they were attempting to resolve a land dispute in the area.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
By Anthony H. Cordesman - CSIS
The Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has just issued two devastating reports to Congress on American Failures in Afghanistan. Both should be required reading for everyone in the U.S. national security community.
AFGHAN NEWS
By Zahid Mahmood - CNN
Mohammad Zafri says his memory is patchy after surviving relentless beatings by the…
Taliban Releases 2,460 Prisoners Ahead of Eid-ul Fitr
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
The Interim government of Afghanistan has exempted 2,460 prisoners on the occasion of Eid-ul Fitr, the Supreme Court of Afghanistan said on…
Nearly 17,000 Female Staff Still 'Active' and 'Getting Paid': UNDP
By Bibi Amina Hakimi - TOLO News
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said that 17,000 female staff members are not leaving the work force and they are working from home, and they will…
REGIONAL NEWS
Between Tehran and Kabul the feud for control of the Helmand River reopens
By Asia News
A 1973 treaty regulates the sharing of resources, but the Kamal Khan dam has revived the…
Return of Pakistan’s Mission Head to Kabul Will Improve Relations: Muttaqi
By Banafsha Binesh - TOLO News
The acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Amir Khan Muttaqi, met with the head of the Pakistan diplomatic mission in Kabul, Obaid Rahman Nizamani, and discussed bilateral…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
U.S. taxpayers may be funding the Taliban and Afghan terror groups, watchdog says
By Courtney Kube - NBC
The head of the U.S. government watchdog for the war in Afghanistan said Wednesday that the U.S. may have provided billions in taxpayer dollars to the Taliban and…
UN chief to convene Afghanistan meeting in Doha in May
By Michelle Nichols - Reuters
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will convene envoys on Afghanistan from various countries next month to try to find a unified approach to dealing with the…
THE DAILY WTF
Islamic Emirate Strives to strengthen media in the Country: Kabir
By Bakhtar News
Deputy Prime Minister, Mawlavi Abdul Kabir, In a meeting with media officials, journalists and political experts, said that the Islamic Emirate considers the media as a bridge between the…
‘Wow. Just wow.’ TAD Staff
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 85.32 AFN (as of 20 APR 2023)