Daily Evacuation Brief | April 19, 2022

Apr 19, 2022

LAST 24 HOURS:

Social media sites attributed to ISIS-K began sharing a video of a purported rocket attack launched into Uzbekistan from Afghanistan on Monday. A video recorded statement has also been shared where ISIS-K claims responsibility for the action. No information about the location of either the launch or the attacks is available. Nor have there been reports of casualties or damage.
Several sources have suggested the Pakistani airstrikes were coordinated with help from the Kandahari faction of the Taliban. We have not been able to verify the credibility of these claims.
Several notable leaders of opposition groups met in Ankara, Turkey to discuss insurgency operations in Afghanistan. According to Turkish sources, Ahmad Zia Massoud, Abdul Rashid Dostum, Zahir Qadir, and the former police chief of Kabul were in attendance. The discussions focused on trying to deconflict operations and prevent inadvertent clashes between insurgent groups. Apparently, the soon to be issued uniforms for the Taliban will assist with identifying friend vs. foe for the opposition.
Anti-Pakistan protests have been reported in several cities in response to the airstrikes. No violence was reported but sources indicated the TTP continues to enjoy more support from Afghan citizens and are using the strikes as a recruiting call.
Iran forcibly expelled approximately 1,500 Afghans over the last 24 hours. The daily average of those returned from Iran hovers between 1,000 and 2,000 people. Returning refugees have described the situation in Iran as hostile towards Afghan refugees.
China has apparently turned over additional equipment to assist with intercepting cellular communications and have urged the Ministry of the Interior to crack down on unlicensed SIM cards being sold around the country.
Shortly after Qasim Qaem’s—the MoI official who recently kidnapped, tortured, and killed—funeral took place, the Taliban reportedly arrested his brother, Ruholamin. His whereabouts are currently unknown.

NEXT 24 HOURS:

Apparently, the attack in Logar Province was unexpected and has caused significant concern among the Taliban leadership. They are expected to send a sizable force to display their commitment to the security of the province.
Pakistani forces have upgraded their already high security postures along the Durand Line for the next several days. It is believed they have received information about a possible attack.
If the reports about the purported ISIS-K rocket attack on Uzbekistan are true, increased security activity is expected along the joint border between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. It is possible Uzbekistan may launch retaliatory air-strikes against suspected ISIS-K training camps. Russia has long maintained a list of suspected terrorist bases in Afghanistan and has likely shared this information with both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

ANALYSIS FOLLOW-UP

The analysis presented in the Daily Evacuation Brief for 17 APR 2022 merited additional attention in light of a suspected ISIS-K rocket attack into Uzbekistan.

After further consideration, we assess it is more likely that the increased air patrolling observed along the Uzbekistan border is/was related to ISIS-K activities.

ANALYSIS SPOTLIGHT:

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The Afghan War May Not Be Over

By Fazelminallah Qazizai – New Lines Magazine

While the Taliban’s return to power could be seen as marking the end of the war in Afghanistan, I have learned to be wary of what my country’s future might hold. Peace is meant to have been within our reach at several different points in the past 20 years; each time we have been left with only more violence…

Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 87.86 AFN (as of 19 APR 2022)