Daily Evacuation Brief | April 16, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
TALIBAN’S USE OF ‘UNIDENTIFIED GUNMEN’ MONNIKER QUESTIONED – Various Taliban press attaches have used the term ‘unidentifed gunmen’ or ‘masked gunmen’ to explain away many of the murders that have become commonplace since the takeover. A good many of the attacks that have targeted former Afghan Army and NDS personnel are often attributed to groups of unidentified killers who seemingly strike at will and in full view of the Taliban security forces. Through a cursory review of 37 assassinations of former ANA/NDS dating back to July 2022, not a single report of an arrest has been made and several of the surviving family members say the cases are clearly not being followed up by the Taliban police. While Taliban-sponsored killings have long been considered to be responsible for these murders (accepted even), there is now an active effort to identify which Ministry is responsible for planning and implementing the attacks. The goal is to identify who is responsible for the killings, who orders them, and to collect evidence to present to the ICC. There are a great many ‘open secrets’ in Kabul and Kandahar. An operative working on this effort is hopeful that it will be successful in pulling back the curtain on the Taliban and finally exposing the amnesty program as a charade.
PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER DOING DAMAGE CONTROL – Minister Bilawal Zardari was forced to intervene in Pak-Afghan relations after a threat from Pakistan’s Defense Minister to conduct strikes against TTP targets in Afghanistan was issued in an interview with the Voice of America. Zardari held a call with the Taliban Foreign Minister and voiced support for his government’s commitment to good relations with their neighbor. Some observers in Islamabad are convinced the political theater was planned by Pakistan while others say there is dysfunction between the ministries in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. As of publication, we have not assessed any change to the forces of either country stationed along the shared border and there are no indications that resources are being marshaled for potential strategic strikes across the border.
SOME CONCERNS THAT VIOLENCE WILL ENSUE AFTER THE END OF RAMADAN – While no solid information has been received to substantiate growing rumors about potential increased combat operations by the Taliban, the Resistance, and/or ISIS-K once Ramadan has concluded, there is word that Ministry of Defense orders have been issued to select Taliban units to prepare for deployment to Panjshir, Takhar, and Badakhshan as early as next weekend. Whether these orders are offensively minded or, in response to a possible Resistance campaign is currently not known. A source in Kabul stated that the maintenance activity reported over air assets and ground vehicles this Spring has been made in anticipation of a ‘final campaign’ to eradicate the Resistance.
TAJIKISTAN TROOPS HOLD BORDER SENSITIZATION MEETINGS WITH COMMUNITIES ALONG AFGHAN BORDER – The meetings took place in Gorno-Badakhshan from 3-8 April and were part of a European security program intended to raise awareness among locals about the activities and responsibilities of the border security forces with respect to threats that may emanate from Afghanistan. Citizens were encouraged to report suspicious activity and literature was provided with ‘hotline’ numbers the citizens could call should they witness a threat or border violation in their remote communities. Nearly 1000 community leaders from 7 border enclaves attended the training and the program is an ongoing effort to support community policing policies in the volatile region.
NEXT 24 HOURS
AT-RISK AFGHANS SHELTERING IN PESHAWAR STAY ALERT – An unconfirmed report stated that a Pakistani college student was stabbed to death by an Afghan refugee in the city after a verbal altercation on Friday night. It is not clear if the purported assailant has been apprehended but local sources say the college student was popular and his death has caused xenophobic tensions in the city to rise. At-risk Afghans who reside in the city or, who plan on traveling through, should be aware of the situation and be prepared to shelter in their residences should a mob form or xenophobic protests take place. Again, this report has yet to be confirmed but we made the editorial decision to release it as tensions have been high in the city for some time now.
NEW HIJAB LAWS IN IRAN LIKELY TO REIGNITE PROTESTS – As the new law reportedly came into effect on Thursday or Friday (depending on the locality), youth groups and students were planning to launch a new round of protests across the country. While details are not available, the law has the potential to incite violence that has tapered off over the Winter months. At-risk Afghans in Iran should be aware of the potential for clashes between demonstrators and security forces. While many say the protests won’t begin in earnest until after Ramadan, some women’s groups have stated their intention to defy the law immediately and any resulting confrontations could escalate rapidly.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
The ‘camera law’ regarding the surveillance of women who fail to don the hijab was put into effect on Saturday.
The regime hailed Saudi Arabia’s announcement it was lifting its travel ban on Iranian citizens and was planning to schedule flights between Tehran and Riyadh.
Youth groups in several cities targeted police facilities on Thursday, Friday, and early on Saturday to protest the implementation of the new hijab measures.
PAKISTAN
A clash between Pakistani police and a criminal group in Kashmore resulted in a gun battle that killed 2 policemen and wounded 4 more. It is believed the criminals escaped and are on the run.
The religious affairs Minister, Mufti Abdul Shakoor, was killed in an automobile accident on Friday.
An intervention by a non-aligned political party appears to have convinced PTI party officials to join in talks with the government and other political groups. No date has been set but the announcement has been seen as a positive step for the country.
SPOTLIGHT OPINION
Time For Afghanistan To Put Own House In Order – OpEd
By Asad Ali - EurAsia Review
The security situation in Afghanistan is unstable and concerning. There are reports of violence and human rights abuses by new administration of IEA, including extrajudicial killings, forced displacement, and restrictions on the freedoms of expression, assembly and association. Afghanistan has also been facing security challenges from other groups such as ISKP. The lack of cooperation from international community is also hindering Afghan government’s ability to curb the menace of terrorism and extremism as the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 created a power vacuum in the country, which had allowed other non-state actors to regrouped themselves and carry out attacks against innocent civilians. Since then, there have been ongoing developments in Afghanistan, and the security situation may have changed.
AFGHAN NEWS
Female Doctor Shot Dead by Unknown Gunmen in Takhar, Suspected Taliban Involvement
By 8AM Media
Sources reported on Friday, 14 April, that the incident took place in the evening on the previous day near the village of Chanzi on the…
Journalists Criticize Lack of Access to Information
By Nazir Shinwari - TOLO News
“Unfortunately, there are many problems when it comes to access to information and we cannot pass on information to the people on time,” said…
REGIONAL NEWS
Pakistan committed to peaceful Afghanistan, Bilawal tells Afghan FM Muttaqi
By SAMAA
Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari on Saturday held a telephone conversation with Acting Afghan Minister for Foreign Affairs…
Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM Visits Kabul to Discuss Trade
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
A Kazakhstan delegation led by Zhomangarin, deputy prime minister of Kazakhstan, met with acting Foreign Minister Mawlavi Amir Khan Muttaqi on…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
West Meets Qatar’s Prime Minister, Discusses Afghanistan
By Fatema Adeeb - TOLO News
US special envoy for Afghanistan, Thomas West, who is on a regional trip, met with Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and special envoy for conflict resolution…
Russia Calls for Establishing of Inclusive Government in Afghanistan
By Banafsha Binesh - TOLO News
Russian Foreign Minister Russian Sergei Lavrov has said that the recognition of the current Afghan government is possible by establishing an…
THE DAILY WTF
Afghan diplomat running UN mission in New York despite Taliban's objections, without money
By Betul Yuruk - Anadolu Agency
Naseer Faiq, who was serving as political coordinator -- a third-ranking diplomat in New York when the Taliban swept to power in 2021 -- has been since…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 86.29 AFN (as of 16 APR 2023)