Daily Evacuation Brief | April 11, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
SOURCES WITHIN THE NATIONAL RESISTANCE FRONT SAY LEADERSHIP CHANGES ARE COMING – Several sources have hinted at dissatisfaction in the ranks and some rivalries among existing NRF leaders. Apparently, operations have been largely paused while the senior leadership works out a new organizational structure and makes some lateral moves among Commanders and political officers. While some rumors have suggested that a crisis exists at the top, those voices seem to be in a distinct minority. Announcements are expected in the next two weeks and will likely coincide with operational activity.
2 HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS RELEASED BY TALIBAN – Nargis Sadat and Zakaria Osuli, both human rights activists were released on Monday after being detained for over two months. UNAMA officials hailed the actions but doubled down on criticism of the Taliban for arbitrary arrests of other activists. It is not yet clear why the two were arrested and held or, why they were released.
FORMER NDS DIRECTOR SAYS TALIBAN HAVE ACCESS TO INFORMATION FROM NATIONAL CELLULAR NETWORKS – Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of the NDS under the previous regime said he has verified the Taliban has gained access to virtually all communications within and outside of the country. He claimed that Pakistan and China provided technical assistance to give the Taliban the ability to read text messages (via SIM cards) and can also gain access to Twitter, Telegram, Facebook, and WhatsApp programs. It is unclear how accurate this information is and whether the capability exists. We assess the threat from Mr. Nabil’s statement as low for most Afghans as the number of analysts required to effectively scour even several blocks of Kabul would be immense. However, for individuals who may already have attracted the Taliban’s attention, the capability would afford the Taliban to target and build substantive cases against them. That is…if the assertions are true.
AFGHANISTAN RANKED 4TH GLOBALLY FOR WORST CRIME IN 2022 – The World Population Review released its index of nation-states with high rates of criminality and Afghanistan came in at #4 for 2022. Only Venezuela, New Guinea, and South Africa had higher crime rates. The report stipulated the opium trade, corruption, assassinations, kidnapping, and money laundering factored into the country’s rankings. The Taliban said the report is inaccurate and said that crime has dropped since they took the reigns of power.
4.1 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE STRIKES BADAKHSHAN – The epicenter of the earthquake was approximately 90 km from the capital, Fayzabad. No casualties or damages have been reported as of yet.
NEXT 24 HOURS
MORE FLOODING PREDICTED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AFGHANISTAN – Heavy rains have been falling in parts of Badakhshan, Takhar, Samangan, Baghlan, Parwan, Panjshir, and Nuristan. Several roads have been closed for fear of flooding. Snow has also been falling at higher elevations and could exacerbate the flooding. At-risk Afghans planning travel in these areas are encouraged to find out road conditions before embarking on their journeys.
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
US forces in Syria claim to have shot down an Iranian drone operating in Deir Ezzor (Syria).
Russia’s main airline (Aeroflot) has sent an Airbus A330 to Tehran for repairs as sanctions have crippled Moscow’s ability to service much of its legitimate (and illegitimate) fleet.
An Iranian prison guard reputedly broke the kneecaps of a 70-year-old human rights activist (who is also a grandmother). The incident is said to have taken place in the Evin Prison complex and the information has yet to be verified.
PAKISTAN
A deadly blast in Quetta has killed at least 4 and injured many more. A device targeting a security vehicle detonated and the majority of the casualties are said to be non-combatants.
The Parliament passed a bill that dials back the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice’s authority to appoint special benches and to hear cases at his own discretion. The President has yet to sign the bill into law.
The nationwide digital census will be extended until 15 April in an attempt to complete the outstanding 3% of respondents.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Ahmad Shuja Jamal on How the US Facilitated the Taliban’s Return to Power
By Sudha Ramachandran - The Diplomat
On August 15, 2021, the world watched with horror as Taliban fighters strode into Kabul to capture power without firing a shot. Much debate and discussion followed over what had caused the sudden collapse of Republican Afghanistan. Was the weak Afghan state, hollowed out by corrupt politicians and bureaucrats, to blame? Why did the Afghan defense forces fail to push back the Taliban? In their book “The Decline and Fall of Republican Afghanistan,” authors Ahmad Shuja Jamal and William Maley argue that while issues like a highly centralized state, corruption and weak leadership contributed to the decline of the Republic, the U.S. decision to negotiate with the Taliban, which gave it legitimacy, and the exit of American troops from Afghanistan played a “triggering role” in its collapse.
AFGHAN NEWS
Afghan Traders Face Severe Challenges in Withdrawing Funds: Sader Khail
By Mitra Majeedy - TOLO News
He said the statement made by the Central Bank to increase the allotted amount for withdrawals has yet to come into…
By Fox News
Authorities say the curbs are in place because of gender mixing or because women allegedly are not wearing the hijab, or Islamic headscarf…
UN Afghan Staff to Stay Home Another 26 Days: Source
By Banafsha Binesh - TOLO News
The move to suspend work for 48 hours was made in solidarity with the female Afghan UN staff—which has been extended until…
REGIONAL NEWS
Afghan Tailors Flee to Pakistan After Ban on Stitching Women’s Clothing
By Ashfaq Yusufzai - Inter Press Service
“I had my shop in Afghanistan but came here after the Taliban’s warning against stitching women’s…
Deadly Explosion Hits Police Vehicle in Pakistan’s Quetta
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
According to police and hospital authorities, an explosion on Monday in the Pakistani city of Quetta intended to target a police vehicle resulted in at least…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
UN humanitarian aid plan ‘severely under-funded’ for Afghanistan
By AMU TV
In a reported issued by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the agency said by the end of the first quarter of this year, $249 million was reported to…
US Senators Criticize Downplaying of Terrorism Risk in Afghan Report
By Banafsha Binesh - TOLO News
“I think the major mistake was made in negotiating directly with the Taliban. Not involving the Afghan…”
THE DAILY WTF
New Taliban school uniform includes face coverings for all female students and teachers
By Arpan Rai - The Independent
Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders have drafted a bill that proposes a Sharia dress code for school students, prescribing headscarves, cloaks, and long tunics and…
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 86.73 AFN (as of 11 APR 2023)