Daily Evacuation Brief | April 1, 2023
LAST 24 HOURS
UNREPORTED INCIDENT IN A GIRLS’ SCHOOL, JAWZJAN PROVINCE ON WEDNESDAY KILLS 2 STUDENTS, INJURES OTHERS – 2 female students (aged 10 and 12) were said to have been killed and 6-10 others were reputedly injured in an explosion inside an elementary school in the Qosh Tepa District. Taliban officials have now confirmed the incident and claim the blast was caused by the students who were accused of playing with a hand grenade when it went off. Some locals are dubious of the official explanation and blame zealots among the Taliban who are attempting to close down all schooling for females. There does not seem to be any evidence to support the latter claim and many lives have been lost due to children playing with unexploded munitions. TAD had received an initial report of a hand-grenade attack in the Province on Thursday but was unable to verify any details and failed to report on the matter.
TALIBAN SPOKESMAN REJECTS REPORTS OF ATTACK ON POLICE HEADQUARTERS YESTERDAY – Khalid Zadran, a spokesman for the Taliban in Kabul, told reporters with Hamasa Media that the reported drive-by grenade attack on the Police Headquarters in Kabul did not happen. The Afghanistan Liberation Front is said to be preparing video evidence of the attack but has not yet shared it on its social media sites.
TALIBAN REPRESENTATIVE IN TEHRAN SHOUTED DOWN BY AFGHANS IN TEHRAN FRIDAY – Video taken of a gathering for prayers in the Hemat Abad area of Tehran shows a man, ostensibly a representative of the Taliban, attempting to lead Friday prayers. The crowd erupted into chants of ‘Death to the Taliban’ and ‘Death to the Emirate’. Ultimately, the man and his retinue were forced to leave the area as the crowd became threatening. While the particulars regarding the purported incident are not available, the metadata contained in the videos validate the date/time/location and they do correspond to the accounts.
SOME QUESTIONING WHETHER THE RESISTANCE HAS COLLAPSED IN AFGHANISTAN – Several Afghanistan analysts and observer organizations are now openly writing off the Resistance in Afghanistan. The recent speculation over Tajikistan’s possible tentative engagement with the Taliban has led many to claim they are now losing their base of support and their days are numbered. Our analysis indicates these predictions are presumptive and are based on a lack of information and a David vs Goliath force ratio that seemingly favors the Taliban. The truth is, nobody knows how many Resistance groups have organized in Afghanistan. Nor do they know how many fighters each command. Based on the operational tempo of the four largest groups, they clearly have footprints in multiple Provinces and have successfully carried out verified operations on many fronts. The Taliban claim to have approximately 100,000 fighters in the ranks and plans to recruit another 200,000 by the end of 2023. While those numbers seem overwhelming, many are now posted to routine security duties which is not something they have demonstrated a proclivity/appetite for. The Taliban also suffers from a rumored schism and loyalties are somewhat divided between Kandahar and Kabul. While it is not clear if the disparate Resistance forces are coordinating closely, it seems likely they will be forced to coalesce at some point and this could present a much more serious challenge to the Taliban. Tajikistan’s supposed tacit acceptance of the Taliban is based more on speculation than substance and even if they accept some diplomatic presence, it does not seem likely it would negate the anti-Taliban sentiment in Dushanbe (or Moscow for that matter). Ultimately, our analysis suggests it is far too early to sound the death knell for the Resistance.
NEXT 24 HOURS
NO THREATS ASSESSED
REGIONAL ROUNDUP
IRAN
The US seized a vessel transporting ammunition and other war materials that it says was bound for Houthi Rebels in Yemen. It has filed a forfeiture action for the war materials and claims it has evidence the shipment was prepared by the IRGC. The incident has sparked speculation that Saudi Arabia may rethink the Chinese-brokered deal with Iran.
Azerbaijan responded to Iranian comments that it was allowing Israel to operate against Iran from its territory by accusing Iran of sponsoring terrorism.
A second Israeli attack in Damascus has reportedly resulted in the death of an IRGC military advisor. It is believed that Israel conducted 6 air strikes in March.
PAKISTAN
A decrease in inflation prices for food goods was recorded by the Ministry of Finance. Other commodities such as fuel and tea saw an increase.
12 people were reportedly killed (all women and children) at another food distribution sign in Karachi on Friday. The rush occurred when the company that was distributing the food attempted to close the gates to the courtyard and panic ensued.
1 Pakistani Army soldier was killed in an exchange of fire with militants in North Waziristan on Friday. In Balochistan, 1 man was killed and another wounded when security forces ambushed their group. Both were said to be terrorists.
SPOTLIGHT ANALYSIS
Afghanistan: The Glory And Misery Of The Taliban Regime – Analysis
By Majha Seric - EurAsia Review
From 2001 to 2021, Western-style democracy was forcibly introduced in Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani’s Afghan government, which the Taliban fought against, was weakened by deep internal divisions, infighting and rampant corruption. The democratic government had strong support from the international community, but the results were very modest. Billions of dollars have been invested in Afghanistan’s democracy. The US Congress alone allocated more than 146 billion dollars for the reconstruction of the country and the establishment of a democratic order. Although progress has been made in almost all fields, Afghanistan remains one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the world.
AFGHAN NEWS
Kabul Denies ICG's Claim TTP “Based in Afghanistan”
By Nazir Shinwari - TOLO News
The Islamic Emirate’s spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, said not only would they not allow TTP, but any other group that is trying to pose a…
Abbas Stanikzai Calls for Reopening of Afghan Girls’ School, University
By Fidel Rahmati - Khaama Press
“98 per cent of scholars are in favour of women and girls’ education; the deputy foreign minister for political affairs, Sher Mohammad Stankizai is one of those people who is…
Political Deputy PM Meets With UNAMA Head in Kabul
By Mohammad Farshad Daryosh - TOLO News
The office quoted the deputy PM as saying that the Islamic Emirate wants to engage with the international…
REGIONAL NEWS
Quds Force Tries to Maintain the Balance in Iran’s Afghanistan Policy
By Ali Alfoneh - AGSIW
In a 2008 message to General David Petraeus, the commander of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, the late Major General Qassim Suleimani, then the…
Iran hands over 20 Afghan detainees to IEA officials
By Ariana News
The Islamic Emirate’s foreign ministry officials in Nimruz province said that 20 Afghan prisoners, including students, scholars and ordinary citizens were released from Iran’s…
INTERNATIONAL NEWS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
Russia: ICC Downplays Western War Crimes in Afghanistan
By Banafsha Binesh - TOLO News
“So, we will not see any investigation of crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan, where hundreds of civilians…
Afghanistan Under the Taliban: The Global Jihadist Threat to Europe and the Middle East
By Dr. Antonio Giustozzi - European Eye on Radicalization
More than eighteen months after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021, it is time to assess the level of threat deriving from the jihadist groups…
THE DAILY WTF
IEA has fulfilled all the conditions and it should be recognized: deputy PM
By Ariana News
In a meeting with the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, the political deputy of the Prime Minister of the….
Afghani to the Dollar: $1 – 86.90 AFN (as of 1 APR 2023)